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H4 graph
The pair is trading under level 1.6335 (below the “C” trend line), which speaks in favor of dropping to level 1.5950. Some correction is developing now, which is supposed to be finished at 1.6335. I suggest selling from current levels with a stop set above 1.6385 and the target set to 1.5950.
Alternatively, in case the market rises above level 1.6385, a “double top” trend-turning figure will be formed and the pair will set its target of growth to level 1.6510 and over. And if it then will rise above 1.6510, it will get to a huge free upper area, which it will be able to pass easily. If it will go that way, the target will be set to level 1.6900.
Daily graph (09.06.09)
The pair rebounded from support level 1.6170 formed by the crossing of trend lines “H” (monthly trend line) and “D” (the lower bound of daily uptrend). This was followed by a drop below the lower bound of “C-C+” daily sideways trend with subsequent return to the channel. That fact speaks that there is a very strong support under the channel and now the pair will try to find a stronger resistance in order to test level 1.6170 again. But the pair may not find proper resistance since there are no strong resistances above level 1.6510, and by going above level 1.6510 the pair will break the “B-B+” daily downtrend, after which it is supposed to rise to level 1.6900. For the reasons above the pair either will turn from current levels for testing 1.6170, or it will eventually rise above level 1.6510.
Two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.6510, it will get to resistance 1.6900 / 1.6950.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.6070, it will get down to support 1.5480.
The pair is trading under level 1.6335 (below the “C” trend line), which speaks in favor of dropping to level 1.5950. Some correction is developing now, which is supposed to be finished at 1.6335. I suggest selling from current levels with a stop set above 1.6385 and the target set to 1.5950.
Alternatively, in case the market rises above level 1.6385, a “double top” trend-turning figure will be formed and the pair will set its target of growth to level 1.6510 and over. And if it then will rise above 1.6510, it will get to a huge free upper area, which it will be able to pass easily. If it will go that way, the target will be set to level 1.6900.
Daily graph (09.06.09)
The pair rebounded from support level 1.6170 formed by the crossing of trend lines “H” (monthly trend line) and “D” (the lower bound of daily uptrend). This was followed by a drop below the lower bound of “C-C+” daily sideways trend with subsequent return to the channel. That fact speaks that there is a very strong support under the channel and now the pair will try to find a stronger resistance in order to test level 1.6170 again. But the pair may not find proper resistance since there are no strong resistances above level 1.6510, and by going above level 1.6510 the pair will break the “B-B+” daily downtrend, after which it is supposed to rise to level 1.6900. For the reasons above the pair either will turn from current levels for testing 1.6170, or it will eventually rise above level 1.6510.
Two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.6510, it will get to resistance 1.6900 / 1.6950.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.6070, it will get down to support 1.5480.
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GBP/USD
H1 graph
The pair rebounded from resistance 1.6440 (the higher bound of “B2-B+” downtrend). During the rebound a “double top” trend-turning figure had been formed and executed, so the pair’s next drop target is now set to level 1.6310 – the lower bound of “Z-Z+” sideways trend. That sideways trend comprises another “double top” trend-turning figure itself, and the figure mentioned above is the right shoulder of this one. Generally speaking, a “diamond” figure is also seen within this large double top, but the “Z-Z+” has clearly outlined itself, so we should consider it primary. In case the pair drops below level 1.6290, the large figure will be executed and the next drop target will be set to level 1.6180. But first the pair needs to get under 1.6350 and keep itself from going above 1.6415, or else the whole trading plan is cancelled.
H1 graph
The pair rebounded from resistance 1.6440 (the higher bound of “B2-B+” downtrend). During the rebound a “double top” trend-turning figure had been formed and executed, so the pair’s next drop target is now set to level 1.6310 – the lower bound of “Z-Z+” sideways trend. That sideways trend comprises another “double top” trend-turning figure itself, and the figure mentioned above is the right shoulder of this one. Generally speaking, a “diamond” figure is also seen within this large double top, but the “Z-Z+” has clearly outlined itself, so we should consider it primary. In case the pair drops below level 1.6290, the large figure will be executed and the next drop target will be set to level 1.6180. But first the pair needs to get under 1.6350 and keep itself from going above 1.6415, or else the whole trading plan is cancelled.
Kryzz
shaun
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can say that again, just closed out a long after entering upon the break of 441, +52 pips for my fourth ever forex trade (helped out by Manufacturing Production news)
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Nice one Shaun, i was thinking it would head a bit lower, but it became obvious early the break of the low was a fake, not unusual for the Pound to overshoot hey?
Kryzz
shaun
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Thanks caribean, what are you gonna be watching the pound for now? Looks like its grinding its way back upto 6588 as im typing, double top maybe?
Chart over on FF pointed out a possible H&S topping pattern, which looks good too. The dailys below.
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Obviously most likely a continuation of the long, but mindfull of possible fake at 1.6600, i trade the small TF's so anything possible.
Preferable scenario for me,retrace to around 1.6450 and then run to 1.6700, but only for me...: )
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Hey, you like using Gartleys?
Why 161.8% ? the harmonics are out of ...umm, well, harmony....
Nice trade you posted earlier.
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H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a growth target set to a rather distant level 1.6900. Although that level is far away there are no serious resistances on the way up, so reaching that level is completely real. In order to continue the uptrend the pair needs to get over resistance 1.6590, while the nearest support is found at level 1.6535. The next support is located at level 1.6400 – a strong key level. We can speak about changing of current uptrend to a downtrend only if the pair drops below level 1.6365, and in such case the dropping target will be set to level 1.6170.
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a growth target set to a rather distant level 1.6900. Although that level is far away there are no serious resistances on the way up, so reaching that level is completely real. In order to continue the uptrend the pair needs to get over resistance 1.6590, while the nearest support is found at level 1.6535. The next support is located at level 1.6400 – a strong key level. We can speak about changing of current uptrend to a downtrend only if the pair drops below level 1.6365, and in such case the dropping target will be set to level 1.6170.
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since I entered short at about 1.67 on a weekly chart-moved stop to break even and still holding short. My initial stop was the old 1.70 high- since trade went profitable moved buy stop down.
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Hello,
I dont usually use gartleys, but was playing with it for a few weeks to see its success rate and also provides a good warning area. Lol and my bad for using the 161.8 fib.
ok. the chart attached shows. The break had occured off the primary uptrend and in minor consolidation period. We may see channels, triangles, or a short uptrend, then finally zoom down making a downtrend. But first i need to spot a good LH for this to happen.
I agree with strategist. We may have some juice left for long trades .
Cheers,
c_flow
I dont usually use gartleys, but was playing with it for a few weeks to see its success rate and also provides a good warning area. Lol and my bad for using the 161.8 fib.
ok. the chart attached shows. The break had occured off the primary uptrend and in minor consolidation period. We may see channels, triangles, or a short uptrend, then finally zoom down making a downtrend. But first i need to spot a good LH for this to happen.
I agree with strategist. We may have some juice left for long trades .
Cheers,
c_flow
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In that picture looked like a little bearish shooting star candle as well. support and resistance lines have been drawn. New shorts should probably wait for a break below that support line you've drawn in there
