GBP, HKD, JPY, USD or EUR?

[nizar]

Couldnt find a good title for the thread, but basically taking a long term view, which currency has the best outlook against AUD?

Im guessing not the Greenback, but which is the pick from the others?

And no -its NOT coz i wanna trade currencies with a buy and hold approach Buffet styles... ! LOL

Its coz im thinking of trading international shares, and i dont wanna be completely shafted when i convert back to AUD in 10-20 years time.

I guess i can always trade currencies as well but thats another thing to learn.......

Thoughts??

 

[wayneL]

Re: GBP, HKD, JPY, USD or EURO?

Couldnt find a good title for the thread, but basically taking a long term view, which currency has the best outlook against AUD?

Im guessing not the Greenback, but which is the pick from the others?

And no -its NOT coz i wanna trade currencies with a buy and hold approach Buffet styles... ! LOL

Its coz im thinking of trading international shares, and i dont wanna be completely shafted when i convert back to AUD in 10-20 years time.

I guess i can always trade currencies as well but thats another thing to learn.......

Thoughts??

Long term prediction of currencies is too hard IMO

Pick the stock market you like best and hedge your Ozzie $s

eg buy AUD100k worth of Jap stocks, then long 100k worth of AUD/JPY on forex. You will have cost of carry on the currency deal, but you are hedged.

That's one way

 

[nizar]

Re: GBP, HKD, JPY, USD or EURO?

Long term prediction of currencies is too hard IMO

Pick the stock market you like best and hedge your Ozzie $s

eg buy AUD100k worth of Jap stocks, then long 100k worth of AUD/JPY on forex. You will have cost of carry on the currency deal, but you are hedged.

That's one way

Good idea.
Yeh i know, forex trading is just from charts and trends. Fundamentals are far too complex.

But you would at least agree that USD is the most doomed compared to the rest?

 

[wayneL]

Re: GBP, HKD, JPY, USD or EURO?

Good idea.
Yeh i know, forex trading is just from charts and trends. Fundamentals are far too complex.

But you would at least agree that USD is the most doomed compared to the rest?

So it would seem. What is disturbing about that is that it is a view almost universally held, apart from US government shills like Larry Kudlow.

The fundamentals are dreadful. However, the fundamentals of the AUD & GBP (particularly GBP) are infested with pox as well, and they are racing away against the USD.

On the same vein, CHF is a very sound currency fundamentally yet is not doing so well.

It's more to do with the flow of money than fundamentals IMO. This could change at any time.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Re: GBP, HKD, JPY, USD or EURO?

After USD I believe EURO will have their day in the long run.

I am bullish on EURO in the long run and it will shine like AUD and NZD. Next 18 months is very crucial for EURO, AUD, NZD and emerging market currencies.

EURO and emerging market currencies will appreciate against NZD, AUD in the medium run.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Currencies such as NZD, AUD and emerging market currencies are having some support due to new development. We may see volatility in the currency market in the short run. We may see next trend in the currency market in 2014. In the mid and long run both AUD and NZD will go down rapidly against USD. Year of 2014 will be crucial for some commodities and currencies.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions