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Tradesurfer

Tradesurfer

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I've been short and now riding the nice downtrend.

Question is, is this the pair to me in on the short side now? Weakening currency against the one with the highest interest rate (of the developed/main pairs).

Aussie seems to indicate a possible tightening of rates while Britain seems to be in for more easing or at the least, no tightening.

I don't make predictions and trade trends, the trend is bearish....but thought this pair warranted some additional discussion so started the thread.

thoughts??
 
My firms analysis is that the GBP is still in trouble, both due to their financial system, and the fear over the EUR is also having a negative effect.

Most of the UK's dollars is generated by financial services, and now that their banks have copped a battering, with people blaming them solely for the crisis (as opposed to govs) it harder for them to make money
 
Incredible down trend isn't it.

One thing is for sure, that incredible one-sideness will result in a very fast and potentially profitable reversal at some stage. Although i wouldnt be taking longs yet.

But then again, could have said that about the ZWD hahaha
 
lukeaye said:
Incredible down trend isn't it.

One thing is for sure, that incredible one-sideness will result in a very fast and potentially profitable reversal at some stage. Although i wouldnt be taking longs yet.

But then again, could have said that about the ZWD hahaha
Click to expand...

This ride is indeed going to be difficult as it is aleged that one newspaper altered their poll results for the General Election due in May. So depending on these polls the GBP could leap around.

The UK has about £1 trillion in debts and tax receipts have plummeted. Last week they successfully sold £2 billion in gilts quite easily. So it looks as if the next government may need to sell about £300 billion in the next year - interest rates could rocket.

The Conservative government have handcuffed themselves by stating their main aim, if elected, would be to cut the deficit. That means higher taxes and reducing Government expenditure and sacking staff. Markets like their stance but voters appear less happy about it.

The third party, The Liberal Democrats, have about 65 seats in Parliament (they would not support the Conservatives most think) and Irish parties about 12 and a few Independents.
Boundary Changes seem to favour the ruling Labour Party, so a hung Parliament, LibLab Alliance, could come to power and just wander along aimlessly.

Expect anything to happen.
 
staying with the trend-another low today-until the trend says otherwise still a lower highs/lows-the news is now past for the interest rate decisions. Although still have the minutes coming out
 
GBP/AUD Analysis

GBP/AUD chart has experienced a descending trend during the recent Days that could record the bottom price of 1.78312. One of the sellers’ targets was the support zone of 1.78304 that they were successful in reaching to it and right now ,the price was not able to descend more by reaching to this level. By forming a Hammer candlestick pattern in mentioned bottom price, there is a potential for creating a bottom price and ascending of price.

In H4 time frame of this currency pair there is Butterfly harmonic pattern between the Top price of 1.81403 and the bottom price of 1.78312 that with completing the D point of this pattern , there is a warning for changes in price.RSI indicator is in saturation Sell area and in divergence mode with the price chart warns about changing price direction during the next candles. If price rises and buyers success first of the price targets would be Down trendline that is obvious in the picture below. Generally according to the formed signs in the chart, until the bottom price of 1.78312 is preserved, price has the potential to correction.

Technical Analysis of GBP/AUD dated 2014.06.11
4643138_icfl_883810.jpg
 
Re: GBP/AUD Analysis

GBP/AUD during the recent days was in a strong and consistent uptrend that buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 2.0030.Price by reaching to the important round resistance level of 2.0000 and the resistance edge of uptrend channel has stopped from more ascend that shows buyers used this price level to exit their trades.

According to the formed price movements in the chart, between the bottom price of 1.7858 and top price of 2.0030,there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 that with completion of the D point there will be a warning for descending of price.Stoch indicator in daily time frame is in the saturation buy area and is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about changing price direction.One of the important warnings for decreasing of is breaking of supportive level of 1.9768 (Low level of price changes in the previous daily candle).
 

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Re: GBP/AUD Analysis

Technical analysis of GBP/AUD dated 06.03.2015

As it was mentioned in the previous analysis of this currency pair dated 16.02.2015, according to the formed signs in this price chart, there was the possibility of descending of price which finally happened.As it is obvious in the picture below, price with reaching to the supportive edge of Down channel has been stopped from more descend and by forming a bottom price (Doji Pattern) of 1.9453 has prepared the field for ascending of price.

AS it is obvious in the picture below, there is an ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 2.0028 and the bottom price of 1.9453 with ratios of 78.6 and 127.2 that warns the ascending of price from the D point.RSI indicator is in saturation sell area that confirms the current harmonic pattern with the next cycle but because of non-compliance and coordination with larger time frames, this signal is not much valid.Based on current chart , there is a probability for bullish candles , First notice for starting bearish trend will be came out after punching D spot in 1.9453 level.
 

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Long GBPAUD @ 1.75779. First area of interest is the 1.77500 area. I want to see how price reacts here and then I'll look to the 1.80000 area. R:R = 4:1 with the potential for 10:1.
 
Pause for thought as the AUD reaches $1.90 to GBP.
 

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