GBM - GBM Gold

[Jordanlee]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

These discussions are interesting. One people want to fight with Ian Smith for his life time, and trying to stop investors to put money in his enemy's pocket. Good luck ya!


I just found GBM annouced their inglewood project.
-"Refurbished Maxwells Processing Plant. 100% owned by GBM."
-"Precommission trials commenced on 9 April, and to be delivered to site in the week ending 18 April. with commissioning to commence immediately thereafter-leading to initial gold production in April."
-120,000t of tailings at approx. 1g/t.
.......
Good annoucement! I have been waiting this for a well.
Good luck for all holders!

 

[oldblue]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

Hi Firdy
Sorry to butt into this discussion but I just want to point out that your equivalent of a real estate agent also owns over 50% of the house he's selling.
Good luck with GBM. I also got slightly burnt in Bendigo Mining and Perseverance so I'm a bit wary of Vic goldminers!

 

[spectrumchaser]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

There is an error in my posting of March 17th it should read
Doug Cahill Solicitor 600,000 shares and not
John Cahill Geologist 600,000 shares.

There are two Cahills on the board perhaps a local
may be able to clarify if they are related or even brothers ?

 

[Firdy]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

There is an error in my posting of March 17th it should read
Doug Cahill Solicitor 600,000 shares and not
John Cahill Geologist 600,000 shares.

There are two Cahills on the board perhaps a local
may be able to clarify if they are related or even brothers ?

My mate there told me that Douglass is a fourth generation Bendigo Lawyer, and formerly Chairman of the Bendigo Stock Exchange. He looks to be around 65 from the photo. I guess he'd have to have a few relatives around after 4 generations. I see Douglass sells small parcels of shares from time to time - around $ 5,000 worth and so forth - only a bad sign if it's large parcels. Normally just means the Director is short of dough.

John is the key man - is respected for being very conservative. And also a long term local. Apparently he was just below the most senior level with Bendigo Mining and had a falling our and resigned BEFORE they came out with the Resource Statement that was b/s. He woldn't let them do what they did, and when they went ahead anyway he left. That is good.

Apparently they are some kind of distant relative - uncle/nephew once removed or something.

 

[spectrumchaser]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

HI Firdy,

Thanks for finding more helpful info about John and Doug Cahill for us.
You are fortunate having a friend in the Bendigo area.

 

[Firdy]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

Hi Firdy
Sorry to butt into this discussion but I just want to point out that your equivalent of a real estate agent also owns over 50% of the house he's selling.
Good luck with GBM. I also got slightly burnt in Bendigo Mining and Perseverance so I'm a bit wary of Vic goldminers!

Good to have some other input oldblue.

Maybe an even more acurate analogy might be the "real estate agent" retained a fraction of a percent shareholding of the house - Cahill is .2/10th of a percent. But what the real estate agent really got was one of the other buildings on the property for removal = Greater Bendigo and its 9 projects. If you accept this analogy, then we could agree that Lombard is irrelevant to GBM's Gold production.

I'd have to agree with you though that Vic miners are generally higher risk. I think the market de-values them accordingly, and then over-rates them when they start production??????

I like the maths. Looking at 1.EV/Resource 2.EV/Discounted-In-Sit-Gold 3. Mkt Cap/next yrs pdtn 4. cash cost per oz

PSV sp 0.20 1. $86/oz 2. $119/oz 3. $ 961/oz $ 4. $587/oz
BDG sp 0.28 1. no resource 2. $20/oz 3. no pdtn 4. $ 570/oz
GBM sp 0.20 1. $135/oz 2. $ 88/oz 3. $ 1007/oz 4. $ 460/oz

(EV = Enterprise value = Market cap adjusted for balance sheet items).
The average price for gold in the ground in Australia is $ 135/oz for a producer.

The difficulty in Vic is it's hugely expensive to measure the resource to JORC standard. BDG will used this as an excuse to estimate and overstate, which meant when they did have ratios, they were wrong.

GBM appears to be conservative, so I am expecting their ratios to be conservative as they find more Gold.

Looking at the BGM's Inglewood history, the field produced 6 million oz, is about the same size as Bendigo, but only a small percentage explored and untouched below 150 meters (compared with 1 km. for Bendigo). The 650,000 oz resource and potential estimate for Inglewood must be conservative.

So comparing these three Vic miners:
- write BDG off for the time being as their infrastructure is wrong, making their cost of production high.
- PSV's costs is also too high - but still worth a look.
- GBM's ratios are high, on what they have announced? but are they being conservative enough having learnt the lesson from Bendigo down the road?

The strategy of setting up a small plant (50Mt per hour) (when they finish it that is .... ) and then increasing resource/exploration on the surplus cash flow seems logical.

It is a totally different strategy than that which failed at BGD.

Another thing I checked .... On GBM's resource statement, and the "Inglewood project update" from yesterday, they have a PE of 3 (still) but seven years production of existing resource, and 25 years production of potential.

All this tells me that the future has to be good for GBM, for those who can wait...

 

[oldblue]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

Hi Firdy
Your numbers may well be feasible but I'm still not attracted to Vic goldminers. Better prospects elsewhere IMO.
By the way, I thought it was Mr Smith that you likened to the real estate agent. He's the one with over 50% of the house/company.

 

[oldblue]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

It doesn't look as though GBM managed to get Inglewood producing in April.
May, perhaps?

 

[Firdy]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

I phoned them about the plant. I got a bit of info, basically commissioning is proceeding well, but a bit behind time, and to what for the next announcement.

 

[Curious]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

Done some research on the various directors...

It looks like Doug Cahill has a dubious past...he was one of 3 directors who tried to scam Primus with an airship deal a few years back.

Just google ccp primus doug cahill

This bloke is a con-artist.

 

[Firdy]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

I am happy the GBM is well funded with $13 million in lines of credit, including ANZ bank, and there are several other Directors who are conservative. This is news to me, but actually, it doesn’t affect my view of the company, and here is why.

Interesting. I see Mr D Cahill was demoted from Founder/Managing Director to "Special Projects" a few months after the float, and John Cahill, geologist (and I read a distant relative) was took over as M.D. I wonder if this is related?

The Google search came up with two newspaper articles from around 2003. This does not read as a scam – rather a deal gone wrong, and the parties fighting hard afterward, disputing each other’s position.

For those who want a summary, the articles say that Mssrs Cahill and others (apparently unrelated to GBM) contracted in early 2,000 to pay a $ 1.6 million deposit for an airship, and that they pre-sold a 12 month lease to a telco (Primus) for $3 million with a $400,000 up front deposit. According to one article the $ 400,000 deposit was spent in the business = no personal profit.

This would have seemed at the time like a good deal for all. Very entrepreneurial. Other than apparently they didn't tell Primus that they didn't have the money to pay the rest of the $1.2 million for the Airship. Reading between the lines, in the heady days of the tech boom and the pre-Olympic euphoria, and with a $ 3 million contract "in the bag" Cahill and co. would have expected to be able to contribute or raise the further $1.2 million in order to get the airship built.

Again reading between the lines, the environment changed in April 2000 with the tech crash, where average telecos lost 70% of their value, and smaller ones 90%. (I understand the tech crash very well, having had my own Internet based business come very close to collapse at that time when all our teleco customers, small and large simply cancelled millions of dollars of orders).

That would have been the catalyst to the Airship deal collapsing - who'd expect a junior teleco to continue to come up with a further $ 2.6 million in advertising in that environment? So (I'm guessing) the potential funders would have disappeared in droves, leaving Mssrs Cahill and others with their pants around their ankles.

If these guesses are correct, its way too strong, and probably defamatory to call him a con man or scammer. It would be fair to say “failed deals” and "high risk". That's not fatal, especially in Gold Mining, which nearly all carries risk. The board appears balanced with some conservative heads.

I wonder how this finished out. Was there an appeal??? Did the Cahill and others pay the $ 400,000 back? It would be interesting, although not really relevant to write to the company and find out for sure.

 

[Firdy]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

Hi Curious,

I have asked a Barrister to find and provide a copy of the judgement. That's the way to really find out if this Director was a con-man or a entrepreneur gone wrong.

 

[Biggle]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

Court finds airships directors misled Primus
April 25 2003 The age.com.au
By Leonie Wood

A Supreme Court judge yesterday found three directors who talked Primus Telecommunications into signing a $3 million marketing contract for an airship to fly over the Sydney 2000 Olympics had engaged in misleading and deceptive conduct.

In an 80-page decision, Justice David Habersberger said the evidence of the three - Robert Palmer, Bendigo solicitor Douglas Cahill and Gary Walsh, all directors of CCP Australian Airships Pty Ltd - variously was unsatisfactory, unconvincing, and at times evasive.

"I regret to say that I was left with the clear impression that each of Cahill, Palmer and Walsh, when giving evidence, was acutely conscious of the fact that he might be found liable for the damages claimed by Primus and his answers were at times influenced by this fear of what, no doubt, would be a financially disastrous result for each of them," Justice Habersberger said.

Primus has demanded CCP Airships and the three directors repay a $400,000 deposit the telecommunications group paid in early 2000 as part payment for a 12-month lease over the inflatable airship.

Although the deposit was described in contracts between the parties as "non-refundable", Justice Habersberger said it would be an extraordinary interpretation to assume that CCP Airships could retain the deposit if it had flagrantly breached the licence agreement.

Mr Cahill last night told The Age that CCP Airships and the directors planned to file an appeal next week. "We will appeal vigorously," he said.

With Telstra as one of the dominant sponsors of the Olympics, Primus hoped to win a marketing advantage by flying the airship over Sydney during September 2000. Video screens on the sides of the airship were to be devoted to Primus ads.

But CCP Airships could not raise the $US1.6 million deposit the US-based airship manufacturer demanded ahead of construction, and the project failed.

Justice Habersberger said that because the directors had failed to tell Primus officials that CCP Airships did not have the funds to meet the manufacturer's deposit, they had misled and deceived Primus.


Couldn't find anything further if the appeal was lodge or not.

I anticipate further news this week on whether or not production has commenced at Inglewood as it will be 2 months from there last deadline and I think the ASX would take a dim view on the lack of followup information to the market, heres hoping it will be good news about production commenced, particulary with Gold edging back towards $1000.

 

[Firdy]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

Thanks Biggles,

I've reflected, and despite all the positives with GBM I'm now uncomfortable with this news about Mr D. Cahill. Those are unusually harsh comments for a Judge to make, especially in a commercial case.

I think readers of this who are shareholders should urgently write to the Board and require an explanation.

They have six directors - which is one or three too many ....
I've rarely seen a better case for shareholders removing a Director.....

On positive matters, I saw statements that the plant was running on another site. I have not seen this verified as yet. Perhaps it is running in Commissioning, or perhaps it is running in full Production???

My personal enthusiasm about this company remains strong to the extent that I have sold done other gold shares and bought this. It is based on:
- local information on the highly likelihood of a repetitive nature of the geology in the area ... that they are only scratching the surface of a 2 - 3 million plus plus oz exploration potential, and
- that (same as anything in life) Victorian mining is hard when done by people without experience in the area, but not so hard if done right ... therefore generally undervalued.
- operating plant (now or soon??)
- projected 6 million profit, so they don't have to go to shareholders for cash.
- ratio analysis on existing announcements.

- equals === BINGO ====

 

[oldblue]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

It doesn't look as though GBM managed to get Inglewood producing in April.
May, perhaps?

Any news on how Inglewood is going?
Do we assume that production didn't get under way in May?

 

[Biggle]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

News out, production under way and should have something to show for it by end of the month. We will see.

 

[Firdy]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

End of the month is close? Are they going to do it? Production has been going on since the announcement on the 6th of this month - some results from the first two weeks should be nigh ..... but where are they?

 

[sophieyan]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

New announcement out

THis is from the announcement
"All major systems are funtioning correctly n their overal effectiveness has also exceeded expectations.

In addition to capturing the normal size range of free gold as expected, gold down to and finer than 40 microns being trapped. The Enhanced Gravity Concentrators are also capturing greater than expected quantities of gold bearing sulphides.

The Maxwell plant's operation will now move from component effectiveness testing, to overall performance measurement and performance reporting. It will also focus on processing free gold n concentrate produced to date into gold bars for sale. "

This is exciting news, ah?

 

[Firdy]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

If they are capturing gold below 40 microns, then the new technology is doing something the gold industry has been trying to do for 150 years.

Their yields will be way up. Am buying more at 15, and looking for the results of their "analysis".

 

[sam76]

Re: GBM - Greater Bendigo Gold Mines

GBM SULPHIDE CONCENTRATES SHOW SIGNIFICANT GRADES
Independent assay of the sulphide concentrates produced by GBM’s Maxwells
Processing Plant show gold grades up to 13 Kilograms per tonne present in the
concentrate (See results below).


13 kilograms a tonne!!!!