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Gann forecasts/real time trades

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robertgordon

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Over the next few weeks I will endeavour to post some real time trades and Commodity forecasts that are based on the Principles and Timing Techniques of WD Gann .
Tonight we should see Lumber trade lower than than the 27th December Top 316 .
We can see that Time has moved beyond 180 degrees from the 23rd June 2010 Low and the current price of 316 is trading below the 45 degree angle . Time has also balanced from the Nov 4th Top to Nov 30th Low which equals 26 degrees , if we project 26 degrees out from Nov 30th we come close to balancing time into the 27th December Top 316 . Over the next few days I will try and gauge how far we can expect this move to run down . rgds Robertgordon
 
Most people don’t understand Gann, so if you are going to start a thread it’s best
to accompany any analysis with charts or other illustrations.

Otherwise it makes no sense, and you’ll be ripped apart by all those that think Gann is
a load of dogs vomit.

Entry set-ups also help ( no need for trade management rules).

BTW.. not sure how many Aussie traders trade lumber.
 
Gann's will was worth $US150,000 when he died. Quite a bit of money in those days, but far short of the tens of millions is followers claim he made.

Quite a bit of conjecture exists, but many believe Gann made most of his money marketing his 'systems' rather then trading the market. His son John, actually stated that his father was a unsuccessful trader.

He was ahead of his time in many ways. Scientifically studying markets as well as marketing those methods. If he was the great market analyst many now claim he was is a debatable topic.
 
Everyone has a different viewpoint on Gann but I think it is appropriate that if one really wants to learn the Principles and Timing Techniques of Gann you need to dedicate quite a considerable amount of time and effort into researching his material and re piecing it togethor to understand and identify the mechanisms behind his trading decisions . For a start have a look at his extensive body of work and courses that he produced throughout his life . His Books include How to make profits in Commodities . Truth of the stocktape Wall St Selector and 45 years in Wall Street and Tunnel through the Air . For those who havent conducted a detailed and thorough examination into the works and principles of Gann it would be an obvious and naive assumption to think that all of his works were published for the sole purpose of generating a line of income . So lets look at the facts and his trading records and let those statistics speak for themselves . In 1939 Ganns courses were very expensive with the Master Forecasting Method Course selling for 2500.00 and in addition to that his Complete Market Forecasting Course was reputedly sold for around 5000.00 so yes these are very expensive prices to pay back in 1939 . Below I have listed some of Ganns forecasts and trades so that people can gain a better and more well informed perspective into Gann and his trading records which are based upon fact . My objective in opening up this thread is to use Ganns Timing Techniques and The Principles of Natural Law as the fundamental element on which to base my forecasts and Trade decisions . Please appreciate that in some instances or examples I will not be able to provide or choose not to provide a detailed explanation into what I have learnt or publicly divulge specific trade mechanics but I will endeavour to do my best and put forward a rigorous mechanical explanation . there will be mistakes and stopouts and some forecasts might be out by a a day or two but I will do my best to keep focused and work in alignment with Gann and The Principles of Natural Law . If you are serious in studying Gann you can find all of this within his courses letters and books . its all there and alot cheaper than 1939 prices .








* During the month of October 1909 in twenty five market days Gann made in the presence of Representative ( Ticker and Investment Digest ) two hundred and eighty six transactions in various stocks on both the long and short side of the market . Two hundred and sixty four of these transactions resulted in profits and twenty two in losses . The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times so that at the end of the month he had one thousand per cent of his original margin .

* In our presence we have seen him give in one day sixteen succesive orders in the same stock eight of which turned out to be at either the top or bottom eigth of that particular swing . the above we can positively verify . Such performances as these coupled with the foregoing are probably unparalleled in the history of the street .

*R.D. Wyckoff, witnessing the actions of Mr. Gann in 1909, wrote:
One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer (1909) when he predicted that September wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that price before the end of the month of September.
At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled.
Mr. Gann said "if it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there." It is common history that September wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of the trading, closing at that figure. In less than an hour and 15 minutes later it had moved from $1.07 all the way upwards to trade at W.D. Gann's predicted price of $1.20 and no higher.

*"Mr. Gann's calculations are based on natural law. I have followed Gann and his work closely for years. I know that he has a firm grasp of the basic principles which govern stock market movements, and I do not believe any other man can duplicate the idea or his method at the present time. Early this year, he figured that the top of the advance would fall on a certain day in August and calculated the prices at which the Dow Jones Averages would then stand. The market culminated on the exact day and within four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted. You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerable money on all these operations, was suggested.
Yes, we have made a great deal of money. Gann has taken half-million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I once saw him take $130, and in less than one month run it up to over $12,000. Gann can compound money faster than any man I have ever met.
 
Your request for a chart is appreciated although it is quite difficult to post one as I work between two mediums . The trading platform I am using is Gann Trader which is quite a cumbersome old programme that works on a DOS basis and doesnt have the capabilities or functions to take a screen shot and save it to a file . I have unsuccesfully tried to do this on several occasions and unlike mestastock it will not allow it but that doesnt matter as I can provide a detailed commentary on each trade or forecast that I am preparing . Lets not allow small trivial technicalities to interfere or detract from our analysis and besides I dont really like to post my charts and calculators within the public domain . My decision to remain private in my research and calculations is not through that of ignorance but some of techniques and principles that I have discovered over years of patient and meticulous study have been deservedly achieved and even though some of methods are consistently accurate in prognosticating market turning points well in advance of the event taking place , sometimes in certain instances the calculations and alignment of time cycles into a projected date will not work out in the expected manner which is why I have a well structured trading plan laid out in advance that estimates projected risk on each trade and how I can exit that position if the market doesnt conform to my measures and principles . perhaps this is due to gaps within my knowledge base or lack of understanding certain sections , but sometimes I just sit back and wonder how Gann was able to consistently prognosticate nearly every turning point within the wheat or beans market before that physical movement actually took place with such a high degree of accuracy .

Gann said that all market movements occur as the result of a Natural Law and the Cause exists long before the Effect takes place and if we can identify and understand how those forces will exert themselves upon the market or a particular commodity then we can begin to build a conceptual framework into how these deterministic laws prevail and exert themselves upon certain instruments at a particular point in time . If we have the appropriate knowledge and imformation before us then we should be able to predict or estimate how this force or field of electromagnetic energy will impact the instrument under observation and whether it will have a positive or negative impact .

Being able to consistently predict accurate turning points within the soybean market or The FTSE is really only one part of the equation . Lets look at the Top on Lumber 27th December 316 1/4 . On this date certain Timing influences moved into directional alignment and cumulatively exerted their line of influence on the Lumber Market so for an astute observer who is trained in the principles of Natural Law he was able to interpret this imformation and apply it to the movement in Lumber but these Laws are universal and can mostly be applied to almost anything , but picking the Top is only a small componet within the overall trade . how strong is the influence and how far in time can we expect this movement to decline before we can exit our position . How far in price will the movement carry down . and how much of this movement can we realisticly expect to capture . My initial estimate indicates that price could trade down into the 11th January before a mild upward swing which would provide us with a 14 - 15 day campaign but at this point in time I dont have the knowledge or skills to estimate a price . 90 degrees = 298 180 degrees = 281 270 degrees = 265 and 360 degrees = 249 as potential estimates . From there you could project the Geometric Angles and note them as support points . I am also looking at a Top in the FTSE on the 31st December 2010 .
 
WALLS OF TEXT ON AN INTERNET FORUM.

Allot of us live fast paced lives and do not really have 90 minutes to read and decode your un-paragraphed text block which may or may not have any interesting information in it.

It would be nice to see some charts and some concise paragraphs!

No offense, I was really interested by the title but then got hit by THE WALL.
 
robertgordon said:
Your request for a chart is appreciated although it is quite difficult to post one as I work between two mediums . The trading platform I am using is Gann Trader which is quite a cumbersome old programme that works on a DOS basis and doesnt have the capabilities or functions to take a screen shot and save it to a file
Click to expand...

You might consider using one of the free screen capture programs such as these:

www.picpick.org
http://www.irfanview.com/

There are many others which are easily found by Googling and they are quite easy to install and use.
 
I apologize if my writing style is not presented or laid out in a concise and structured manner but the essence or core principles that I am trying to convey are not all that difficult to comprehend . Yes they do require some input and calculations and it is not my intention to provide you with a wholesale dissemination into the techniques and the principles that I employ . . The Geometric Angles that are used to measure the alignment between time and price can be calculated and projected ahead of time and Gann developed these moving averages back in the early 19th century without the aid of computers and calculators so . Ganns 45 degree angle assigns one unit of price to one unit of time so if the price of an instrument was up 180 days in 180 units of time price is up against the 45 degree angle which might indicate a possible change in trend if other timing factors were in alignment also but Time really is the most important factor . Ganns 22.5 degree angle or 1x2 angle means the price moves at 1/2 point per day so in 180 days in time price will be up 90 points in price or against the 22.5 degree angle . these are all fundamental measurements covered within his course in great detail and would be familiar to most Gann students . The numbers from 316 down to 249 are angular projections on the square of nine and represent ( possible ) points of support and resist which are setup just as a measurement card for future reference . Afull revolution or 360 degrees out out from 316 is 249 .
 
Robert

A few of us here have traded long enough to enjoy simplified trading.
Gann/Elliott/Stadelmayer all are legitimate analysis tools.

As an inclusion isn't it simple enough to grab a chart and simply mark on it.
Expect price to stop and turn here and at here stop again where we can take profit.
Or whatever you want.Common this is the 2nd decade of the new millennium not 1940s
Gann would have been all over this stuff!!

Gann angles
Square of Nine
Degrees in time and price all very nice but
Many of us are visual creatures.
 
robertgordon said:
I apologize if my writing style is not presented or laid out in a concise and structured manner but the essence or core principles that I am trying to convey are not all that difficult to comprehend . Yes they do require some input and calculations and it is not my intention to provide you with a wholesale dissemination into the techniques and the principles that I employ . .

The Geometric Angles that are used to measure the alignment between time and price can be calculated and projected ahead of time and Gann developed these moving averages back in the early 19th century without the aid of computers and calculators so .

Ganns 45 degree angle assigns one unit of price to one unit of time so if the price of an instrument was up 180 days in 180 units of time price is up against the 45 degree angle which might indicate a possible change in trend if other timing factors were in alignment also but Time really is the most important factor .

Ganns 22.5 degree angle or 1x2 angle means the price moves at 1/2 point per day so in 180 days in time price will be up 90 points in price or against the 22.5 degree angle .

these are all fundamental measurements covered within his course in great detail and would be familiar to most Gann students .

The numbers from 316 down to 249 are angular projections on the square of nine and represent ( possible ) points of support and resist which are setup just as a measurement card for future reference . Afull revolution or 360 degrees out out from 316 is 249 .
Click to expand...

Hi Robert,

Thanks for sharing your understanding of Gann...:)

I have quoted your last post above and divided it up into paragraphs. This is what some others here are suggesting rather than a "wall" of words.

To create double spacing for a new paragraph, just hit the "enter" key twice at the point you would like the new paragraph (e.g. after a full stop). You will see from the above quote it makes reading much easier.

With fairly concise information, I would suggest keeping paragraphs reasonably short- maybe limit it it no more than 5 lines - just a suggestion...:)

Again, thanks for sharing and I trust the formatting issues don't discourage you...

PS: I have GannAnalyst so let me know if you need help with posting charts.
 
robertgordon said:
I apologize if my writing style is not presented or laid out in a concise and structured manner but the essence or core principles that I am trying to convey are not all that difficult to comprehend .
Click to expand...

Hi Robert,

The principles you are trying to convey may not be difficult to comprehend, but your writing style is. Presumably you want people to read what you write, so why not make it more reader-friendly by starting a new paragraph each time there is a new thought?

If you do that I might be inclined to take some interest in what you have to say.

Ruby
 
Nice cat Ruby . My friend has one identical called Bubbles and he is approaching 17 years old . I suppose in the eye of the practitioner all analytical techniques are credible and as Tech has pointed out it is very important to keep your approach as simple as possible and ensure that you have a comprehensive and intuitive understanding of the techniques or methods that you employ and how they perform over a range of market conditions . Whether you are looking to trade counter trend reactions within an established long pull trend utilizing the retracement levels and timing projections of RN Elliot as your primary trading mechanism , at least you are approaching the market with a well constructed plan that would incorporate risk assesment on the given trade , what stage of the market are looking to trade and how far can you expect price to move against you before you activate your stops and or if you have a re entry strategy .

I think it is very important to differentiate and recognise the difference between a forward point in time that is projected on a purely arbitrary basis . What I mean by this is just beacause a stock has a historical tendency to turn trend every 30 days doesnt neccesarily mean that it is an absolute timing mechanism because you are really only observing the effect and therefore you are only seeing one side of the equation without developing an understanding into the underlying principles and force structures that actually cause the market to change trend at that given point in time .
This is what Gann was doing , he was studying and projecting forward timing points in wheat or corn based on a detailed examination of causes , the cause exists long before the effect takes place and it is just as easy to go forward 30 days or one year and look for symetrical alignment between timing and price co ordinates but gee it is hard . it is akin to looking at the face of a watch and you can see the minute and hourly hands and the seconds ticking past but as the watch is a closed mechanism you cant see or understand the timing mechanics unless you take the case off the watch and peer inside and then we can truly identify and understand the magnetics or revoultions that really create time .

Just because Corn is 90 days from low to high doesnt necesarily constitute a change in trend although this is one quarter of the earths revolution and sometimes important timing points to co incide with winter or summer equinox points . The proportionate parts of the circle are an important timing mechanism and when multiple civil time frames move into directional alignment it is an important place to look for a possible change in trend but still we are not investigating the natural principles of cause that determine prices to top and bottom and Gann did leave clues and imformation on how he applied these elements but its a long and tedious process to fit the pieces togethor and if you think it is more important and pertinent to discuss or restructure my writing style than discuss timing techniques and natural law you are really just treading water and have no interest in Gann which is the way he intended somewhat .
 
robertgordon said:
Sugar 29.50 30th December should turn out to be Low .
Click to expand...

That's much better very easy to see what your getting at.
But again a chart would be nice----Is this the low you mean?

Click to expand


Sugar.gif

Application of analysis is always a biggie in my view.
Many analysts supply pages of Rhetoric and no trading application of analysis.
In the absence of any suggestion of a trading method here I'll suggest the following.
Robert feel free to suggest another way of taking advantage of Gann Analysis.

So right now on next open you'd be going long
Would you have a stop?
Would you have a price target?
How many contracts would you trade?
 
There is all sorts of speculation re Gann.

Even so it has an allure for many traders as a forecasting tool.
Which when applied to the market can have profitable effects on your trading.

I'm yet to see a practical demonstration of the application of the so called "Art" of Gann Analysis
over 15 yrs what I've seen so far results in nothing more than mass confusion (Often on the presenters part)---a myriad of "Pressure Points" and a complete lack of trading application of the method into any meaningful long term profitable trading methodology.

Perhaps Robert will be the first!
 
TXN ..... looking for a positive time cycle to close the week,
just ahead of anticipated testing results, from their current well.

=====
Click to expand...


That quote is from a post on another Gann thread.
Obviously Gann only works in conjunction with upcoming news, it makes it redundant really other than calling a possible run up a "positive time cycle".

I made a genuine attempt to get my head around Gann a few years ago and asked some basic questions on another thread about entries, stops and targets etc but I all I ever got was positive and negative time cycle commentaries so I gave up on it.

I would still like to see someone post some day to day practical trading approach examples just to demonstrate a basic hands on application of the process.

Just my :2twocents
 
Thanks for the comments and I will endeavour to reply to everyone . The observation on Sugar was a bit late after the fact , its something that just caught my eye and as I havent done any analysis on it in any depth and wasnt prepared for the trade I wont be trading it but I do have some forecast dates here that i will be posting ahead of time for particular commodities , mainly soybeans , wheat , corn and perhaps cotton so just bear with me for a few days and I will place the forecast date up ahead of time and let you know whether I am expecting a low or a high to come in on that date and in some cases i might be able to project how far i expect the movement to carry in time . Forward calculation of time is a little more difficult but i do have instruments that will provide me with two or three anticipated price points on where i can expect the move to terminate and these are based on angular and geometric calculations . Usually one to two days before the movement I can narrow the price down to one or two points and if everything is in alignment there is a good chance that it may hit that point but mainly work out Time first and zero in on price right at the last minute.

Sugar is one that i look at from time to time but as you can see the moves are pretty choppy , the first selloff in two days ran down 8.09 and after that it took another month or so to regain that move and then just sold off 5.27 in a few days so yeah sugar has the tendency to reverse its gains very quickly so I am going to make a detailed examination of the causes that forced sugar to selloff so rapidly and see what i come up but please appreciate that i wont be detailing my findings publicly , but i will share the mechanical and geometric approach , all this is in Ganns courses .
From the 17th November Low to the 30th Low is 45 days or 1/8 of a circle which is an important fixed cycle and in some cases when you have a 90 30 and 45 degree timing alignment from several pivots it can indicate an important change in trend but a detailed examination into the principles of natural law will reveal the correct cause behind the effect . The 29.50 Low on Sugar is under the 45 deg angle by 30c .
So yeah a bit late on Sugar but thaty doesnt matter as I have three high magnitude turning points coming up so will just focus on those as well as managing Lumber trade .
Tech , if i was to trade the sugar move and i had the 30th listed as a turning date i think i could get very close to the low on that date trading on an intraday chart using the circle of 24 as an inner timing mechanism but as the price has moved a bit to far off the low my risk has increased too much and i wouldnt feel comfortable having a wide stop off that 29.50 low , its after the fact and i missed it but thats fine there are always opportunities around the corner.

Now to the Turkey who made such a wonderful contribution stating that Gann died a pauper , I am not sure there are conflicting reports that he only had 150K left et etc but if you pull your head out of the sand and read the detailed forecasts and real time trades that were witnessed by officials of the Ticker Digest back in 1909 you will see that his record of 286 trades is a world record and has not been beaten up till this day .Another important point that I havent mentioned is Gann accurately predicted the Top of the Index in September 1929 . This forecast was made in August 1928 well in advance of one of the biggest selloffs in history . So if you enjoy your five minutes of fame on this forum taking two line potshots at some who has long past it might be advisable to study his records and forecasts in detail and then you can make a decision on his accuracy and mathematical ability . there a heaps of mushrooms around dont become one of them .

in reply to Bogo , about positive time cycles and spec stocks oil stocks etc , its not really my area of expertise , Gann mainly traded in grains and a few select stocks and also the industrial averages so i really tend to steer clear of these smaller issues as I dont think they are really conducive to this style of trading . I think it is important to be able to recognise a potentially positive time cycle and how it may affect or impact upon the price of cotton or wheat and through this process we are looking into and trying to make a study of what causes an instrument to peak or bottom at a given point in time . I think it is important to pinpoint a time when that particular influence comes into effect and through a study of past history we can seek to establish how the price of cotton reacted or was effected under the same set of conditions .
A positive time cycle might come into effect on the 1st january and last to the 7th january and if we have empirical evidence to indicate that this force will have a positive influence on the price of cotton we can begin to assemble the imformation and formulate a strategic trading plan but just because there exists a positive time cycle doesnt mean that every instrument in the index or the grain market is going to move in directional alignment as there are universal forces that exist within every stock and commodity and whilst the price of wheat may rise under a positive aspect the price of soybeans may fall . N.M if you are reading this please email me , I lost all my emails last year and can contact you . Regards G.A
 
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