Sean K
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FXR - Fox Resources
- Thread starter RichKid
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ALFguy
Trading gives me a headache
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Yeah was looking at the chart Kennas and couldn't believe I missed a buy in after it broke $1. Still, plenty of upside here so will be watching very closely this week.
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Fox Resources FXR
Any one have any info on fox resources trading halt?
Any one have any info on fox resources trading halt?
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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ALFguy said:
**** do these guys produce zinc?
thx
MS
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FXR is producing 45t/day of copper in concentrate from West Whundo (announcement 17/8/06). They plan to increase this to 50t/day by Oct 06 (14/9/06 announcement). Mining at West Whundo is currently planned to end in Feb 07, but presumably the good exploration results below the current pit may allow mining to continue until 2008 as the company hopes, increasing mine life from 1 year to 2 years (1/8/06 June quarterly). Although West Whundo contains zinc, I could find no mention of revenue from zinc. This is because the plant is only able to produce nickel and copper concs.
9/10/06 Acquires Elizabeth Hill processing plant for $500k. This will allow FXR to produce a zinc concentrate. Currently they can only produce Nickel and Copper concs. Also 500k Oz Ag in tailings come with the plant ("worth" AUD $8.6m at US $13/oz). Plant located 5km from the Ayisha zinc deposit (not yet in production - still being drilled) and 16km from the Radio Hill plant.
21/12/06 Strikes a deal with Straits Resources (SRL) to sell their stockpiled copper oxide ore from the West Whundo pre-stripping. FXR’s own plant is unable to process oxide ore. They will receive $1m upfront, $1m on delivery of the ore, and up to $2m dependent on the copper price after processing the ore.
22/1/07 2.5 year nickel mining reserve announced as part of BFS on re-starting underground nickel/copper production at Radio Hill. Targeting 2 year mining reserve at the B2 nickel deposit for an overall nickel mine life of 4.5 years. The underground part of the operation (Radio Hill mine) will not need capex because the mining infrastructure is already in place from previous mining campaigns. During the first underground portion of the campaign, 4084t nickel and 5481t copper in concs will be produced. The B2 deposit contains 30,400t nickel and 35,700t copper.
Financial
Assumptions: Cu cash cost US $1.45/lb (from Sept quarterly, 1/11/06), production 45t Cu/day (99,000 lb/day), Cu price US $2.58/lb, USD/AUD = 0.75c, 117.5m shares, 182 days in 6 months.
((2.58-1.45) * (99,000* 182)) = US $20.3m * 1.33 = AUD $27.0m = 23c/share (for 6 months).
Things to bear in mind
1) The above per-share number is not an EPS number (perhaps closer to EBITDA).
2) This calculation takes account of Copper revenue from West Whundo only. West Whundo is currently scheduled to be mined until 2008 unless further exploration extends the deposit.
3) Copper production was planned to increase from 45t/day to 50t/day in the last quarter of 2006.
4) FXR no longer has any hedging or significant debt.
5) There is the payment of up to $4m for the oxide copper sold to SRL (timing of payment uncertain) and revenue from the last Nickel production at Radio Hill (timing and dollar amounts uncertain).
6) FXR are also planning to re-start nickel production and produce a zinc concentrate using their newly-acquired plant.
7) The copper price received may be higher than what I have used in my calculation. I was trying to be conservative.
8) There are 25.2m 30/6/07 75c options outstanding, plus 7m unlisted options at various strike prices and dates (all < 100c strike).
9) Of course this is all back-of-envelope stuff; it's just an attempt to quantify FXR's potential in terms of actual numbers, rather than merely approaching it from a technical point of view.
9/10/06 Acquires Elizabeth Hill processing plant for $500k. This will allow FXR to produce a zinc concentrate. Currently they can only produce Nickel and Copper concs. Also 500k Oz Ag in tailings come with the plant ("worth" AUD $8.6m at US $13/oz). Plant located 5km from the Ayisha zinc deposit (not yet in production - still being drilled) and 16km from the Radio Hill plant.
21/12/06 Strikes a deal with Straits Resources (SRL) to sell their stockpiled copper oxide ore from the West Whundo pre-stripping. FXR’s own plant is unable to process oxide ore. They will receive $1m upfront, $1m on delivery of the ore, and up to $2m dependent on the copper price after processing the ore.
22/1/07 2.5 year nickel mining reserve announced as part of BFS on re-starting underground nickel/copper production at Radio Hill. Targeting 2 year mining reserve at the B2 nickel deposit for an overall nickel mine life of 4.5 years. The underground part of the operation (Radio Hill mine) will not need capex because the mining infrastructure is already in place from previous mining campaigns. During the first underground portion of the campaign, 4084t nickel and 5481t copper in concs will be produced. The B2 deposit contains 30,400t nickel and 35,700t copper.
Financial
Assumptions: Cu cash cost US $1.45/lb (from Sept quarterly, 1/11/06), production 45t Cu/day (99,000 lb/day), Cu price US $2.58/lb, USD/AUD = 0.75c, 117.5m shares, 182 days in 6 months.
((2.58-1.45) * (99,000* 182)) = US $20.3m * 1.33 = AUD $27.0m = 23c/share (for 6 months).
Things to bear in mind
1) The above per-share number is not an EPS number (perhaps closer to EBITDA).
2) This calculation takes account of Copper revenue from West Whundo only. West Whundo is currently scheduled to be mined until 2008 unless further exploration extends the deposit.
3) Copper production was planned to increase from 45t/day to 50t/day in the last quarter of 2006.
4) FXR no longer has any hedging or significant debt.
5) There is the payment of up to $4m for the oxide copper sold to SRL (timing of payment uncertain) and revenue from the last Nickel production at Radio Hill (timing and dollar amounts uncertain).
6) FXR are also planning to re-start nickel production and produce a zinc concentrate using their newly-acquired plant.
7) The copper price received may be higher than what I have used in my calculation. I was trying to be conservative.
8) There are 25.2m 30/6/07 75c options outstanding, plus 7m unlisted options at various strike prices and dates (all < 100c strike).
9) Of course this is all back-of-envelope stuff; it's just an attempt to quantify FXR's potential in terms of actual numbers, rather than merely approaching it from a technical point of view.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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And it looks to be forming a nice head and shoulders formation. Let me know when it gets to 1.20.
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Announcement indicates significant upgrade to resources, should take off again!!! 
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Now im confused by Fox - is there value here or not? Any ideas most appreciated.
doctorj
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It's certainly NOT a takeover offer like some are suggesting.
2-2.5yr mine life does not warrent a takeover at those prices.
2-2.5yr mine life does not warrent a takeover at those prices.
doctorj
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Whenever a company does a placement, there's always pressure to the placement price. To my mind, the fact it hasn't fallen all the way back is indicative of one or both of
(i) It was only a relatively small placement, therefore not that much of a concern
(ii) The positives to come out of the announcement outweigh the negatives
Personally, I rather like the announcement and I think there are many positives to come out of it - read it closely.
(i) It was only a relatively small placement, therefore not that much of a concern
(ii) The positives to come out of the announcement outweigh the negatives
Personally, I rather like the announcement and I think there are many positives to come out of it - read it closely.
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From Dec qtly report, 1842t Cu produced at a cash cost of US$1.24/lb. (1842 * 2200) = 4,052,400 lb Cu.
(2.28 - 1.24) * 4,052,400 = US$ 4,214,496 * 1.33 = AU$ 5,605,279 / 126,045,433 = 4.4c/share for the qtr.
Assuming:
Copper price received US$2.28 (as last qtr), 126,045,433 ord shares, AUD/USD = US$ 0.75, only copper produced in this qtr is sold.
(2.28 - 1.24) * 4,052,400 = US$ 4,214,496 * 1.33 = AU$ 5,605,279 / 126,045,433 = 4.4c/share for the qtr.
Assuming:
Copper price received US$2.28 (as last qtr), 126,045,433 ord shares, AUD/USD = US$ 0.75, only copper produced in this qtr is sold.
doogie_goes_off
disbelieve if you can
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Did anyone notice the Cobalt figures quoted in the last presentation? I guess no one had accounted for this but it's a cool $17M worth over the mine life that did not seem to be announced before. I presume they will get paid for this when they ship their concentrates. FXR have a great fundamental plan and will come back (I think).
doogie_goes_off
disbelieve if you can
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In Profit Today! Hooray for that - See half year accounts - Should see them make a profit for the year as long as nickel production gets up and going.
