Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

FXJ - Fairfax Media

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Tipping competition... which share will reach zero first?

20120824 FXJ-TEN-APN.jpg

And where did the money go?

Turn the charts around and you get the chart of CRZ, REA and SEK.

FXJ+TEN+APN = $1.9B market cap.
CRZ+REA+SEK = $6.1B.
 
notting said:
She tries to sell a big steak at 1c below market. Yeah right!
Click to expand...

It is suspected that she priced her steak (sic) before the cow was slaughtered.. I mean before the last profit result.

But what she forgot is that when you hold 18.7% then sell only 5%, people are going to wonder what you plan to do with the rest of it.
 
Perhaps it was all a ply anyway hoping that she wouldn't get the order filled. Trying to flex her stake to show the FXJ board what she can do with such a big holding
 
prawn_86 said:
Perhaps it was all a ply anyway hoping that she wouldn't get the order filled. Trying to flex her stake to show the FXJ board what she can do with such a big holding
Click to expand...

Perhaps, but they'd be pretty dumb to have not realized that without her having to do that.
It would hardly make a stronger argument for her to sit on the board since she is trashing out of the company.
 
dead to this business many may say :)

I like fishing at the bottum where the upside is greater than the down side...

I'm in at 36c ...the sum of all part is greater than the share price.
fundies are stacking in, a break up scenario is likely to unlock value at least 60c a pop.
 
ROE said:
dead to this business many may say :)

I like fishing at the bottum where the upside is greater than the down side...

I'm in at 36c ...the sum of all part is greater than the share price.
fundies are stacking in, a break up scenario is likely to unlock value at least 60c a pop.
Click to expand...

First time i have seen you make a short term trade ROE. That chart does not look healthy at all!

I can see what you are saying about the sum of the parts, but seems fairly risky. Do you have a stop loss for this one?
 
prawn_86 said:
First time i have seen you make a short term trade ROE. That chart does not look healthy at all!

I can see what you are saying about the sum of the parts, but seems fairly risky. Do you have a stop loss for this one?
Click to expand...

oh I trade but I still have most of my money in core stock holding :)

I made a deliberation decision to contribute on business side and long term holding only..

My trades are very well research and opportunistic I don't trade every day...
some weeks I have 2 positions, sometimes I can go for months without a position...

it all depend when opportunities that pop up that align with my reasoning...
my trades are cream on top of my return, overall I never lose money on trading
always end the years with decent gain...

I carefully follow stocks that get my attention and ONLY when I think upside is on
my side I come in.....FXJ I followed it for 8 months but only came in last week :)

when I do I take large position like 25K plus I have around 20% of the capital for trading...
the way I trades is very unconventional, I purely process information and statistics

I don't use charts, I know a little bit about it I know enough buzz to know what people
are on about when they talk about technical charts.

the knowledge I accumulate over the years let me process information very quickly
and I have various source that feeds me rumors and facts and I process it whether its credible
or not...

I never commit more than the allocated capital, no exception and I usually don't hold more
than 2 position at a time...that way I can process information as it come and take
control of it much quicker..

Stock I trades doesn't need to stand up to the rigorous process I use for investing long term
but it does have to past a certain hurdle, some business I don't like holding for long term
but I still trades it...

you can say my trading is an extension of my research into my long term investing stocks
using exact same techniques but broaden it...

I'm of a mind set, find something you good at it, stick with it, broaden it you will become an expert over time.

blah blah anyway not really related to FXJ so I leave it at that...
 
I've never made any sort of Asset plays, and given FXJ was the first one I've considered, I'm going to ask this:

How do you know that even though the assets are clearly worth more than what the company is selling for, that you'll actually get that value returned to you as a shareholder?

Has there ever been a time where a company is selling cheaper than its net assets, but management are somehow able to destroy that value over time? (Not suggesting it'll happen in this case BTW)

I know I'm sort of side-tracking, but given FXJ's current state, I'd say it's fair to post here.
 
read on the age today

He doesn't have the final say the big shareholders does and the fundies keep
stacking up their position..

their performance is judge on the share price, they cant sit there forever
sooner or later if fortune doesn't improve, big shareholder will get vocal and
old guards need to be let go for new blood that will carry out what need to be
done :D
 
ROE said:
read on the age today

He doesn't have the final say the big shareholders does and the fundies keep
stacking up their position..

their performance is judge on the share price, they cant sit there forever
sooner or later if fortune doesn't improve, big shareholder will get vocal and
old guards need to be let go for new blood that will carry out what need to be
done :D
Click to expand...

Or the whole thing will go into liquidation n disappear from sight.
 
Klogg said:
I've never made any sort of Asset plays, and given FXJ was the first one I've considered, I'm going to ask this:

How do you know that even though the assets are clearly worth more than what the company is selling for, that you'll actually get that value returned to you as a shareholder?

Has there ever been a time where a company is selling cheaper than its net assets, but management are somehow able to destroy that value over time? (Not suggesting it'll happen in this case BTW)

I know I'm sort of side-tracking, but given FXJ's current state, I'd say it's fair to post here.
Click to expand...

Trademe listed on NZ they have 51%, trademe market cap is around 1.3Bn
They have 250m of properties book at cost..market value probably in 300m-400m
AFR is a very profitable business that can fetch a 100m - 200m easy, look at news pay for eureka etc...
Radio another 50-100m?
rsvp domain.com all profitable

the drag on the business is the metro paper.....work out how to contain this bleeders
you have a business worth so much more than current price...

they already trying to make it less costly to run so over time they can make it a
bit cheaper to run and make transition to online....

they wipe out the old media asset value last FY so they now can move forward.

there are solutions, just need good doers.

There is no certainty I just have to go with my research and analysis
and if I made a wrong call that is fine I'm acting with full knowledge
and made an informed choice, that is the best I can do and move on :)
 
MrBurns said:
Or the whole thing will go into liquidation n disappear from sight.
Click to expand...

highly unlike scenario as worse case they can wipe debt clean with asset sale plus
their cash flow is pretty good so no need for that ...

stop dividend and they can wipe debt clean in 3 years :)

at 35-36c you pretty much written off all the stuffed up they made up to this point
there isn't much more down side to go...upside is FAR FAR better....

and if they pay even 2c dividend a year 35-36c look bloody good, beat old cash in the bank by a fair margin :)

forgot to mention it is one of the most shorted stock on the ASX if not the top few.

sooner or later these guys need to buy back and if fundies keep stacking up and accumulate more shares
say Allen Gray 19% .. Lazard 19% ..Gina 14% other could come in you can have a decent shot at squeeze
the shorters and watch the stock rally ...

the up side do look brighter than down side
 
ROE said:
the drag on the business is the metro paper.....work out how to contain this bleeders
you have a business worth so much more than current price...

they already trying to make it less costly to run so over time they can make it a
bit cheaper to run and make transition to online....

they wipe out the old media asset value last FY so they now can move forward.

there are solutions, just need good doers.
Click to expand...

I read somewhere that the easiest solution is to simply and literally stop the press.

Stop printing (and distributing) paper version of the paper and it is a collection of semi-reasonable media assets.
 
That what makes the market, many opinions and expert analyst :D
I pitch my analysis against the experts that how I make my money.

Make no mistake FXJ got headwinds in their path but the question to ask is
has all that been price in and More and that how money is made or destroyed :)
 

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