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Fundamental Positions II

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CALL......$4.76........................$2.88...... ...................(-39.4%)
SAFM......$26.45.....................$31.68....... . ................+19.7%
FORD......$10.74.....................$4.36....... ..................(-59.4%)

CTT......$4.00.......................$2.81........ ..................(-29.7%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$13.44........ .................(-23.0%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$29.57........ ..................+0.00%


SGTL....$10.30.....................$3.55...... .....................(-65.5%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.43........ ...................(-70.1%)

SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................

WON....$6.65.....................$6.59............ ...................+0.0%

CAR....$18.48....................$25.69........... ..................+39.0%
CHDW.$0.32.....................$0.19.............. ..................[-40.6%]
LNX....$4.19.....................$5.07............ .....................+21.0%

Aggregate......................................... ....................[-19.0%]


Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%
KND....................+34.0%
GKIS..................+37.8%
DRYS..................+34.0%
UST...................+35.2% [not inc. dividends]
NAFC.................+29.0%
OFIX..................+27.8%

Aggregate..............+32.3%

jog on
d998
 
Total return on portfolio over 12 mths
3.09%.

Long way short of your 30%/ annum Ducster.
I know 2 yrs to go but already 1 year and you'll need well over 30% next to catch up to the 30%/ year on average--on the exercise.
 
Positions closed today;

SAFM @ $35.41
LNX @ $5.72
CAR @ $28.05

jog on
d998
 
CALL......$4.76........................$2.69...... ...................(-43.4%)

FORD......$10.74.....................$4.31....... ..................(-59.4%)

CTT......$4.00.......................$3.22........ ..................(-19.5%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$13.86........ .................(-20.0%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$29.61........ ..................+0.00%


SGTL....$10.30.....................$3.15...... .....................(-69.5%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.42........ ...................(-70.1%)

SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................

WON....$6.65.....................$6.64............ ...................+0.0%


CHDW.$0.32.....................$0.32.............. ..................+0.0%


Aggregate......................................... ....................[-28.0%]


Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%
KND....................+34.0%
GKIS..................+37.8%
DRYS..................+34.0%
UST...................+35.2% [not inc. dividends]
NAFC.................+29.0%
OFIX..................+27.8%
CAR...................+51.1% [not inc divs]
LNX...................+36.5%
SAFM................+33.8% [not inc. divs]

Aggregate..............+33.8%

jog on
d998
 
Hi Ducati

Always, always enjoy your posts

After looking at your on going account (thanks for posting) and not have spent time looking at the method of taking positions using fundamentals a couple of questions

Do you review your method at any point?

What research have you done to verify your method?

When looking for stocks “under valued” do you consider possible future trends, sectors, business cycles, the baby boomer thing, etc or just pick at random.

Thanks
Focus
 

I review each position on the release of the annual 10K if I am still holding the position, if it reaches a profit target, then I will generally sell.

I have a mixture as I am testing some other screening methods, but generally I will perform my own analysis [examples on this board inc. BHP, RIO, HSP, RIN and possibly a couple others] There are examples in this thread also of some of the stocks held.

No not really, it is mostly a bottom up approach, although I try to stay cognizent of over-all market and economic trends [see blog]

Lots of research going back to circa 1900.

jog on
d998
 
CALL......$4.76........................$3.29...... ...................(-30.8%)

FORD......$10.74.....................$4.17....... ..................(-61.1%)

CTT......$4.00.......................$3.44........ ..................(-14.0%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$14.42........ .................(-17.4%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$29.62........ ..................+0.00%


SGTL....$10.30.....................$3.79...... .....................(-63.2%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.49........ ...................(-65.9%)

SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................

WON....$6.65.....................$6.75............ ...................+1.5%


CHDW.$0.32.....................$0.21.............. ..................[-34%]
X [delta neutral].................................................................
CENT..$14.71...................$14.79...............................+0.0%


Aggregate......................................... ....................[-23.7%]


Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%
KND....................+34.0%
GKIS..................+37.8%
DRYS..................+34.0%
UST...................+35.2% [not inc. dividends]
NAFC.................+29.0%
OFIX..................+27.8%
CAR...................+51.1% [not inc divs]
LNX...................+36.5%
SAFM................+33.8% [not inc. divs]
TELOZ...............+5.0%

Aggregate..............+31.7%

jog on
d998
 
Current NETT return on liquidated portfolio 5.64%
over 16 mths or 4.23% annualised.
 
tech/a

Actually, if you annualise the return, it will be far higher.
But annualised returns can be misleading, which is why I don't report them as such.

TELOZ actual return = 5% capital gains + 5% dividend yield = 10%
TELOZ annualised = 440%

If I annualised the returns, I'd look like Buffett+

jog on
d998
 
Sorry I'll rephrase that.

Current NETT return on liquidated portfolio 5.64%
over 16 mths or +.352% / Month
 
tech/a

Incorrect.
The *liquidated* or closed portion is 32%+

jog on
d998
 
Yes this is as always where we differ.

I sit on open equity.(Until exited)
You sit on open losses.(Indefinately--evidently)

We also differ on portfolio valuation.
I include all open equity and all closed trades.
You only include closed trades and ignore open losses.

You could if you had enough capital hold 100s of losses and just close out those which attain 30% or so. Believing when you do that you've made another 30% within your portfolio---well actually you do.

Happy to differ.
I'd rather hold open profit which has no defined top.
Than open loss which could drop to zero.

I dont continue to post the alternate figures for your benifit as you know Duc.
But to balance the veiw for others with regard to portfolio valuation.

delude on.
tech
 
hi Folks
Just wanting to throw my 2 cents in

Do you us a portfolio tracker of any sort Duc? I know myself that all wins and losses are calculated at the end of the day and the portfolio return is recalculated.
It just sounds a bit to me like a "credit card" approach. You don't make the loss until you have to finally pay the bill.
Some of those losses seem to be pretty high Duc. What is your criteria for selling or do you never sell? If you never sell then how do you know if you are making any money?
I haven't been in the market to long but I am always a bit loath to exit a position that is a winner. I was always told to cut my losses and let my profits run. Sometimes this approach bites me but other times has reaped great rewards.

Anyway cheers Martin
 
Martin

The exit criteria are;

*If the entry criteria [fundamentals significantly change/deteriorate]
*After 3 years

If you take say CTT as an example at one point it was at [-42.7%] currently at [-14.0%]

The reason is that the catalyst that was holding the shareprice down, has been resolved.

What you will also notice is that the worst drawdowns were taken in the early picks, subsequently I have modified the analysis, and significantly reduced the drawdowns.

To be fair, I don't like drawdowns anymore than the next person.

jog on
d998
 
Duc.

You about?
Looking for you over on Reefcap.(Planters/Nobbys).
 
ASX.
I dont follow you.

Its simply the equity in the trade which is unrealised until I close it.
I have some trades over 4 yrs old.
EG QBE.Bought in 2002.

$7.85-$32.00 Coms have little bearing.
Risk---relative to what?
 
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