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Fundamental Positions II

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ducati916

Joined
13 February 2006
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jog on
d998
 
Buy Long
LRT @ $2.56............(LL&E Royalty Trust)

jog on
d998
 
Weekly update;

Ticker..Opening Price....Current Price....%Change


EGY.......$4.61............$7.10.........+54%
HNR.......$8.39............$9.65.........+15%
CALL......$4.76............$4.64........(-2.5%)
SAFM......$26.45...........$23.33.......(-11.7%)
FORD......$10.74...........$8.94.........(-16.7%)
UST.......$41.25...........$40.55........(-1.6%)
ISSC......$13.66........closed$14.78......+8.1%
CTT......$4.00.............$4.85.........+21.0%
CQB......$17.47............$17.39.........0.00%
TOL......$29.78............$33.00........+10.8%
GKIS.....$14.05............$12.22........(-13%)
KND......$21.94............$22.73........+3.6%
LRT......$2.56............$2.56..........0.00%

Aggregate................................+5.15%

jog on
d998
 
Weekly update;

Ticker..Opening Price.............Current Price..........................%Change


EGY.......$4.61........................$5.90....................................+28%
HNR.......$8.39........................$9.73....................................+16%
CALL......$4.76.......................$4.52....................................(-5%)
SAFM......$26.45.....................$20.97..................................(-20.7%)
FORD......$10.74....................$8.39.....................................(-21.8%)
UST.......$41.25.....................$40.52...................................(-1.8%)
ISSC......$13.66......................closed$14.78........................+8.1%
CTT......$4.00........................$4.00......................................0%
CQB......$17.47......................$18.10...................................+3.6%
TOL......$29.78......................$31.39...................................+5.4%
GKIS.....$14.05......................$11.72..................................(-16.5%)
KND......$21.94......................$23.38...................................+6.5%
LRT......$2.56........................$2.25....................................(-12%)

Aggregate.......................................................................(-0.8%)

jog on
d998
 
Snake

For the purposes of these positions, no I am not averaging down. The positions are simply as stated.

jog on
d998
 
Duc.

Your initial premise to purchase these stocks was I believe that Fundamentally the stocks chosen were undervalued.
Now that some are more than 20% less why are they not extremely good value NOW--infact 20% better value than before?

If your not prepared to purchase more now at a 20% better price why are you still in the trade?

Has the premise altered?
 
tech/a


Fundamentally sound stocks, correct.
Their value has improved, and I would have no problems buying more, and may well have done so. However the thread started on Reef, where I was challenged to provide a portfolio by MB, who as you remember stated that he would keep track of, and update the portfolio.

That he has signally failed to so, has meant that I have to update it each week, which is fine, but in the initial agreement I stated that "no averaging down would take place" therefore I am simply sticking to my agreement.

Every single stock will upon exit, show me a profit, and unleveraged returns will aggregate circa 30%, but, it will run for the 12 months+ and we shall see the results.



jog on
d998
 
Duc.
Have no problems watching the exercise run its course.
T/T collected all sorts of Flak in its early days.

But as an aside and I'll keep seperate records,which would you average down and how much on each?

Cant see the point in running an exercise if its not the way you'd trade it in real life?
 
Hi Ducati

Also watching your positions with interest. I noticed EGY was up 54% at one stage. Just curious as to when you would take some money off the table?

Cheers
Happytrader
 
happytrader said:
Hi Ducati

Also watching your positions with interest. I noticed EGY was up 54% at one stage. Just curious as to when you would take some money off the table?

Cheers
Happytrader
Click to expand...

I was wondering the same thing.

Maybe some tecchies took profits......... :bite:
 
Happy & Snake

I take profits or exit at my profit target, which is the calculated "intrinsic value of the share.

As a minimum this must indicate at least a 50% return.
I prefer there to be a 100% return.
Every now and then you find an indicated return far greater than 100%

Did tecchies take a profit?
Most likely, they are a pretty clueless bunch after all.

jog on
d998
 
Just using the EGY example, today it is up circa 7%
Oil is currently pretty volatile, and production based companies, rightly or wrongly, are going to be exposed to that volatility.



So you just ride out the volatility.
Unless, of course you think that you can "time" the volatility.

jog on
d998
 
The other Oil production position, HNR, also showing intra-day volatility.


jog on
d998
 
Any chance of the Target "fair" values for those traded?
 
ducati916 said:
You want the secret to the BLACK MAGIC BOX!!

jog on
d998
Click to expand...


No.

By giving the values you consider to be fair value isnt disclosing how you came to those figures.

What it does do is give all following you an opportunity to look at the exit.(not how you have determined it).
Just as we disclose our exits if we dont adhere to the Rules then all can see and query.

For you to determine a definative 30% + return you must then have established your exit figures.How youve been able to establish a timeframe of a year is interesting.
If however your valuation can vary from time to time how then can you determine a positive expectancy of 30% + ?

And if your wrong?
At what point do you determine your wrong or is that not a possiblilty? (That your valuation and indeed your determination of Goodvalue could be wrong).
 

Hi Duc

Thanks for your answer. I also notice you closed ISSC at a profit of 8.1%
What was the reasoning there, as I notice it doesn't quite fit in with your minimum requirement?

Cheers
Happytrader
 
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