FRS - Ferraus Limited

[Atma]

Hi all. My first post on Aussiestockforums. I am an iron ore believer. This has come to me as a good high grade iron ore. i believe grade, style is important. this has good iron. So far it has jorc of 53 mT with upcoming jorcs of 25mT @ Gwardar, and another 10mT upgraded at Robertson R.

Still 1 massive target to the left of Gwardar may turn out 40-50mT, and several exciting ones like Mirrin mirrin. Total , Maximum potential tonnage is about 250-350mT in my opinion from an analysis of gravity data.

Regarding transport, i have enquired with Ferraus investors relations and there are options

the options are:

1) Truck to bHP, state rail haulage agreement(as part of NWIO alliance)
2) Truck to BHP & mine gate sale
3) Build spur line to FMG(ala UMC) , open access - capex issue?
4) Truck to FMG, no capex but operating margin?
5) NWIO alliance have an own line built in the pilbara, maybe backed by state govt or chinese ala MMX/MIS?

regardless, FRS and other iron ore juniors have full WA state government backing. The govt is working its best to give them something.

Re: building spur lines. FRS will need atleast 200-250mT jorc'd for it to be economical/BFS/ financed or whatever

 

[Spineli]

Well thats 3 trading days in a row, this stock is up over 5% per day...

New highs today again, the order book is looking quite thin on the sell side.

I'm counting down the days till we get the upgrade at T42500E, results which were stated to be expected in May08. 40-50Mt target by their 24april ann.

 

[Spineli]

Well it kept its gain today. Closed 5% up after reaching an intra-day high of 1.75. The sell side is still looking very thin. *Still waiting for the May ann*

 

[Atma]

stock has turned out to be a winner. perhaps 50mT is quite a lot in iron ore. not many companies announcing high quality ore.

 

[agro]

Hi all. My first post on Aussiestockforums. I am an iron ore believer. This has come to me as a good high grade iron ore. i believe grade, style is important. this has good iron. So far it has jorc of 53 mT with upcoming jorcs of 25mT @ Gwardar, and another 10mT upgraded at Robertson R.

Still 1 massive target to the left of Gwardar may turn out 40-50mT, and several exciting ones like Mirrin mirrin. Total , Maximum potential tonnage is about 250-350mT in my opinion from an analysis of gravity data.

Regarding transport, i have enquired with Ferraus investors relations and there are options

the options are:

1) Truck to bHP, state rail haulage agreement(as part of NWIO alliance)
2) Truck to BHP & mine gate sale
3) Build spur line to FMG(ala UMC) , open access - capex issue?
4) Truck to FMG, no capex but operating margin?
5) NWIO alliance have an own line built in the pilbara, maybe backed by state govt or chinese ala MMX/MIS?

regardless, FRS and other iron ore juniors have full WA state government backing. The govt is working its best to give them something.

Re: building spur lines. FRS will need atleast 200-250mT jorc'd for it to be economical/BFS/ financed or whatever

nice to meet a fellow iron ore believer

FMG has the support of the smaller iron ore juniors within the Pilbra so chances are that provided FMG have another railway to up their production, companies like FRS will attain access..

Western Metals have a stake in FRS so funding shouldn't be an issue and i know BCI Iron have a MoU with FMG for rail use

cheers

 

[michael_selway]

nice to meet a fellow iron ore believer

FMG has the support of the smaller iron ore juniors within the Pilbra so chances are that provided FMG have another railway to up their production, companies like FRS will attain access..

Western Metals have a stake in FRS so funding shouldn't be an issue and i know BCI Iron have a MoU with FMG for rail use

cheers

Hi not bad, but do you know whatthe expected mine life is at full produciton rate per annum?

FRS - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -3.0 -1.6 -0.8 46.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[Atma]

if 4mT/a, RR orebody is 50mT, so mine life is over 10 yrs still. Obviously smaller targets will support lower mining rates.

 

[grace]

if 4mT/a, RR orebody is 50mT, so mine life is over 10 yrs still. Obviously smaller targets will support lower mining rates.

If you look at posts above, the targets if added together come up to a sizeable number. Close to 400 million tonne. This company is usually conservative too so, it could go higher. I don't think that this will be a small project!

 

[Atma]

If you look at posts above, the targets if added together come up to a sizeable number. Close to 400 million tonne. This company is usually conservative too so, it could go higher. I don't think that this will be a small project!

yes you are right, its close to 350mT+. there is also manganese. and a tenement where no gravity survey was done. Considering the market capitalisation is only about $280m, this is dirt cheap.

As an example have a look at the following market caps:

MMX - 1.5bn
MIS - 1.6bn
AGO - 1.2bn

all three don't have anywhere near what Ferraus has. FRS current jorc is more than double AGO current jorc. Also Midwest iron ore is of poorer quality than Pilbara haematite primarily due to geological complexity.

 

[grace]

FRS has been on ABN Amro's buy list for a while, but they have now upgraded their target from $1.68 to $2.28 (thankyou very much!).

Here is a link to their report.

http://www.ferraus.com/files/catalog/080522_ABN_Amro_Morgans_Report.pdf

Well worth a read for holders and potential holders. Cheers Grace.

 

[Spineli]

Up almost 5% again today! 4 days of consecutive ~+5% increases.

About time it is given a re-rating! ABN Amro have stuck a $2.28 price target ~36% increase.
Thanks Grace.

- Given a resource report is due soon for T42500E at Davidson Creek which could be in the vicinity of 40-50Mt, ABN Amro may have to go back to the drawing board soon...

On the point of infrastructure access:

"...advancing negotiations for infrastructure access. We expect
access can be resolved commercially, although the terms, structure and timing of an access agreement remain uncertain and will prove critical to the realisation of value."

The report concludes with a positive note on operational and resource risk.

"In the strong market for iron ore there will be cost pressures on development, and in the longer term the project will be exposed to iron ore prices and the A$ exchange rate. We see only limited resource risk, and limited operational risk"

 

[michael_selway]

Up almost 5% again today! 4 days of consecutive ~+5% increases.

About time it is given a re-rating! ABN Amro have stuck a $2.28 price target ~36% increase.
Thanks Grace.

- Given a resource report is due soon for T42500E at Davidson Creek which could be in the vicinity of 40-50Mt, ABN Amro may have to go back to the drawing board soon...

On the point of infrastructure access:

"...advancing negotiations for infrastructure access. We expect
access can be resolved commercially, although the terms, structure and timing of an access agreement remain uncertain and will prove critical to the realisation of value."

The report concludes with a positive note on operational and resource risk.

"In the strong market for iron ore there will be cost pressures on development, and in the longer term the project will be exposed to iron ore prices and the A$ exchange rate. We see only limited resource risk, and limited operational risk"

Hm i read that report, yeah infrastructure access (rail & port) the main thing atm

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -3.0 -1.4 -0.8 142.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[Spineli]

Hm i read that report, yeah infrastructure access (rail & port) the main thing atm

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -3.0 -1.4 -0.8 142.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

What is with posting EPS + DPS forecasts on each post of yours?

With your attachment, how would you justify the EV/Resource tonne being attributed to Brockman at the moment?? and what do you make of FRS's place on that chart?

 

[grace]

Nice announcement today, ahead of a May further resource announcement imminent. New discovery called python (last one taipan.....snakes alive!).

Target start of 10mtpa now per announcement, with first mining planned for 2009.

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080529/pdf/00846430.pdf

 

[Spineli]

Good ann today, the resource estimate came within expectations. Confirmation of a really good resource deposit with significant mineralisation occurring across good distance + thickness.

The week leading up to the ann:

Date Last % Change High Low Vol *
29 May 2008 1.900 +4.4% 2.020 1.800 2,737,132
28 May 2008 1.820 +5.81% 1.940 1.730 1,322,323
27 May 2008 1.720 +2.99% 1.775 1.690 730,495
26 May 2008 1.670 +5.03% 1.750 1.580 904,720
23 May 2008 1.590 +6% 1.590 1.475 709,541
22 May 2008 1.500 +7.14% 1.550 1.385 1,202,525

Next ann is due mid June

"Drilling results from gravity targets at T46500E and T48500E to the east of
the Taipan Resource are expected in mid June."

- From the Apr 24 Ann, : the following potential estimates were made:

- T46500E (5-10Mt potential as per 24 april ann)

- T48500E (15-20Mt potential as per 24 april ann)

* With a very good confirmation of resource today for Python......the upcoming mid-June resource ann could be named RedBelly!

 

[Spineli]

After reaching all time hights ~ $2/share about a week ago, FRS is down ~ 20% this week on no news. I think part of the build up was in anticipation of the ann on the 29 may. Perhaps some were hoping for a better result? I thought it was an excellent ann, further strengthened by David Turvey's (MD) comment, re: proposed production: “This exciting discovery allows FerrAus to review its mine development plans toc onsider large scale production of up to 10 million tonnes per year”.

Here is me hoping that my rights issue entitlement offer reaches Perth before Tuesday 5pm

Robertson Range

For those who like the build up to drilling results, Drilling results from gravity targets at T46500E and T48500E to the east of the Taipan Resource are expected in mid June..

- T46500E (5-10Mt potential as per 24 april ann)

- T48500E (15-20Mt potential as per 24 april ann)


Also to look out for:

Robertson Range Iron Ore Project - tenements south of the Main Zone:

Ann on 6th May says these targets have an exploration potential of 80-100Mt...."First results by mid ‘08" - hopefully some ann's soon regarding these target areas)
- T55500E
- T56500E
- T59000E
- T59800E
- T91000N

See attachments for tenement maps/resource target areas/projects:

 

[Spineli]

Slight edit for my previous post: (first heading in Bold and Underline should read "Davidson Creek" not "Robertson Range")

 

[grace]

Well, looks like they have moved on from snakes! New discoveries of tiger and dugite. This project is sizing up nicely, and they are always conservative in their targets. I have a personal target of 500million tonne of DSO on their project, going on what is coloured pink on their map, and what they have found from the pink already drilled (keeping it in simple terms).

TWO NEW DISCOVERIES, EXTEND IRON MINERALISATION OVER 7 Kms“Potential Production of 10-15 Million Tonnes per year will support Infrastructure Links”

FerrAus Limited (ASX: ”FRS”) has made two additional discoveries of iron mineralisation at the Tiger and Dugite prospects within the Company’s
Davidson Creek project in the East Pilbara region of Western Australia.

They are now calling Davidson Creek the monster deposit, and it is 30kms from jimblebar rail line. Planned mining starts 2009. New discoveries should get them over the line for conveyor belt to rail line.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080617/pdf/00851315.pdf

 

[grace]

This has come off the boil a lot recently. High over $2, to $1.25. Any news due Spineli? Broke through $1.30 which wasn't very nice.

 

[agro]

so glad i sold my rights issue shares at 1.71

too bad everything else is down though

still not a bad stock