Forex intraday T/A

[caribean]

There's two sides to tonight's trading (of course) the possible short is:
pull a fib from 13369, 0% to 13261, 100% (the most recent downswing), you will notice there's a price reaction at (exactly) 61.8% with 127% extension falling right on the lower daily T/L at 13230.
On the long side the perfect scenario would be a run to 13295 which is also the 61.8% of the most recent upswing and also where two T/L meet, and then with the appropriate price reaction a run to 13350.....that's my theory...you know what happens to theory a lot of the time....the author ends up with egg on his face,lol.

 

[caribean]

Did you jump in long Edwood?

 

[Edwood]

no I didn't follow it last night Caribean - was getting myself out of a Dax short unfortunately. how about you? looked a doozy!

Am just getting the hang of this harmonics tool - this was the bullish daily view I mentioned last night. not trading with it yet, just watching to see how they play out.

At first pass it seems to be good for picking turns, the pattern prints as soon as the fibs complete, and I guess once it moves away from the apex you have a good place for a stop... might start sticking them up as they print if thats OK

 

[caribean]

Hi Edwood, no i didn't either...i have not looked much into harmonics as presented by Gartley or Larry Pessavento's, butterfly and other similar patterns.
However i'm a BIG fan of Gartley's simpler ABCD patterns...i see great examples of these patterns and they are the basis of the way i trade, i also think that forex is perhaps the best market for applying this kind of T/A (IMO).
There are harmonics within the simpler ABCD's in the form of fib convergense,
combined with trendlines, candlesticks and the appropriate timeframes, you can build a system around them.
My problem is the fact that you can have a whole week at times without a trade, and being an active sort of a person i can get bored out of my brains waiting for the set up to form.
I have tried scalping the YM but the problem is the hours it is active..i do need to sleep, i'm currently thinking of going in to scalping EUROSTOX 50 or the DAX as i believe they are a lot more active in the short time frames.
I should also point out that i trade currency futures rather than spot.
What program do you use to draw the patterns ? (if you don't mind me asking).
Cheers mate.

PS:the thread does not belong to me just because i started it, anyone is welcomed to post any T/A they use.

 

[Edwood]

Hi Edwood,
i'm a BIG fan of Gartley's simpler ABCD patterns...i see great examples of these patterns and they are the basis of the way i trade, i also think that forex is perhaps the best market for applying this kind of T/A (IMO).
There are harmonics within the simpler ABCD's in the form of fib convergense, combined with trendlines, candlesticks and the appropriate timeframes, you can build a system around them.

My problem is the fact that you can have a whole week at times without a trade, and being an active sort of a person i can get bored out of my brains waiting for the set up to form.

I have tried scalping the YM but the problem is the hours it is active..i do need to sleep, i'm currently thinking of going in to scalping EUROSTOX 50 or the DAX as i believe they are a lot more active in the short time frames.
I should also point out that i trade currency futures rather than spot.
What program do you use to draw the patterns ? (if you don't mind me asking).
Cheers mate.

PS:the thread does not belong to me just because i started it, anyone is welcomed to post any T/A they use.

hi Caribean - yeah now that you mention it - looking at the patterns again they all have that ABCD base - hadn't realised that! program is called MetaTrader4, a Russian kit. eSignal have an add-in as well.

agree re: US hours - knackering. for me its ASX, Dax, FTSE opens and occasionally the SMI for a swing. will start watching the Hang Seng this week - if that looks OK may just drop the US altogether

 

[caribean]

Well, we had a decent breakout of the consolidation and a possible reversal (i'm not convinced yet).
Next week may bring better set ups and an opportunity to score some points...long or short, only time will tell.

 

[caribean]

Hi folks, both the AUD and the GBP look bullish don't they?

 

[caribean]

The GBP gave a long signal back on Friday of the 50% retracement but it has gone so far now that risk reward are a bit out of whack so a risky long trade...on the other hand the Aussie gave us a nice hammer of the 38.2% (almost) and is probably the better trade with risk reward reasonable.
Just my opinion as i'm long in both those, very cautiously with the GBP...there's the ever present danger of the sucker trade (brake out of the consolidation, suck in long orders, take out their stops).
Any other takes?

 

[caribean]

Covered GBP for 30 points on the round number (1.9800 futures) ,looking for opp. to re-enter.

 

[caribean]

Well 1.9800 seems to be support rather that resistance...if that's the case i exited too early
Yep i did..mised out on another 20 or so points... the funny thing is my original limit to exit was 19815...it hit 20.
Right now it's on the junction of a shorter term down T/L and a longer term up T/L which is also the 161.8 % extension,
perhaps minor retracement terittory.

 

[caribean]

On the AUD, close of the current hourly candle at around 8432-5 will be a short signal for me...10 min. to go, target for me 8400......nah, no go, i don't like the correlation to other pairs.

 

[wayneL]

Covered GBP for 30 points on the round number (1.9800 futures) ,looking for opp. to re-enter.

Caribean,

Are you trading forex or the futures (just out of interest)

 

[caribean]

Futures WaineL, good deal through Transact...i mostly quote spot prices so people don't get confused

 

[wayneL]

Futures WaineL, good deal through Transact...i mostly quote spot prices so people don't get confused

Right. Me too. Good idea quoting spot.

I understand the reason you didn't take the trade, but it looks like it might have worked... bummer.

Cheers

 

[caribean]

Yes WayneL the ones i remember are the good ones i didn't take lol ...do you use Sierra ?(if you don't mind me asking)
...the futures are finding support at the round number 8400

 

[wayneL]

I feed IB data in Amibroker, though I have used Sierrachart before. Both are good, I just prefer Ami.

 

[caribean]

I used to be with IB , good broker, i just got sick of the forex complications (you know what i mean)
i also prefer Ami and it's one off fee, i don't like some of the idiosyncrasies of Sierra.
Unfortunately Sierra is the only option with Transact, later i might buy a data feed for my Metastock 8 , my preferred charting.
The other thing i would like is an Aussie broker that can compete with the yanks in speed of execution & cheap commitions...i'd change tomorrow.
Good trading to you

 

[caribean]

Good night and good luck if you are still trading....that AUD trade would have been a good one

 

[caribean]

Hi folks, though i don't normaly trade the JPY i think this is an interesting observation...

 

[caribean]

and this..which way will it go?
sorry i still suck at posting images