Forex for Dummies 2

[tayser]

But GBP/JPY doesn't always move like that at 10:30pm every day... in fact it only does it once a month lol.

On the topic of good times to trade, apart from the session opens:

During the European session you'll see either a new direction or a directon confirmed at 7:05pm AEST/9:05pmAEDT as this is when LIBOR is set in London and Central banks, as well as commercial banks, begin daily operations soon after. 9:00pm AEST everyone in Europe is going to lunch and taking profit, 10pm AEST London is going to lunch and taking profit and New York is opening. 11pm London is back from lunch and it's pre-exchange open time (add two hours for AEDT).

The direction during the New York session usually becomes apparent around 9:30am EST (11:30pm AEST/1:30am AEDT) when the American engines of capitalism fire up for the day (NYSE/Nasdaq/CBOT).

2:00pm-3:00pm AEST/3:00pm-4:00pm AEDT can usually set a new direction in the Asian session cos everyone in Tokyo is going to lunch and taking profit before Europe opens and an hour later Hong Kong/Singapore are going to lunch and Tokyo is back from lunch and taking new positions.

 

[Kryzz]

When do you move your stop to break even?

Only just begun trading so want to keep draw downs minimal, therefore i've been putting my stop to b/e when 10 pips in profit. Am i being too stingy with this?

I've been looking at S/R levels on 1 hr chart, then going down to 15m to refine my entry.


Reason im asking is because i could have caught many of these latest breakouts and feel im missing the boat.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

keep SL's below the last major support level. (how to measure that is an art as much as a science).

if that means initial stop loss is never the same, so be it. change your lots size, not the SL.

say its -65.

then a new level seems to have formed. youre quite sure now that the support is at -30. so you might set your SL to -35.

then you notice its at +15. so you might set your SL at +5.

hope that prompts some thoughts. zero isnt always the best place to move your SL to.

 

[Kryzz]

thanks for the reply stormin, what if price zooms straight up though and there is no new difinitive 'level' to adjust the stop too, and then does a big V reversal and u get stopped out for a loss when you were well in the money? (assuming you did not move the stop at all, coz no new s/r level)

I do change my lot size according to my entry and stop levels.

Current order for AUD/USD below.
Entry is few pips above recent high, stop is bit below recent support/resistance.

Doesn't look like it wants to go on with it though imo

(i know a trailing stop would keep some profits, but would then miss out on a big subsequent move)

 

[Stormin_Norman]

close half your position at profit to cover the SL?

close your position and look to enter should it break the channel (having a profit to offset any potential SL in the breakout trade).

keep SL where it is. if it doesnt get hit and breaks out you havent lost.

 

[Kryzz]

Thought i'd post my first couple (almost) weeks of trading results.

Account is -3% on starting balance, thanks to the fact i've only been risking 1% per trade. Also helps (psychologically) that i've been trading pips that are usually worth less than 30 cents
gotta crawl before you can walk though right?

I feel i could have managed my stops a lot better and not look to take profits just because you have some. Don't trade round numbers. If the trade just hangs around and looks like a loser don't hesitate to move the stop right up. Don't adjust your risk % because you think a trade 'looks good' Just some other things i learnt.

Learnt more this last week a micro a/c than i ever did with a demo, so any money actually lost is not actually lost, if that makes sense.

cheers

shaun

 

[Stormin_Norman]

fantastic news!

they are all things i quickly learnt too -- once i was using real money.

a couple of hundred dollars will learn you a lot more then a 100,000 demo.

are you writing down your rules?

 

[Kryzz]

Not really to be honest, all pretty discretionary re trades, this may be where i'm getting tripped up.

My rules more or less:

Shorts of resistance, break of support when in down trend
Longs of support, breaks of resistance when in uptrend
Trend = Slope of 50 period MA on 1 hr tf
No more than 1% risk per trade
Avoid news

(throw in some chart patterns in there for good measure too)

 

[Stormin_Norman]

try to write down/record trades.

that way you know what is working and what isnt; rather then analysis being adhoc.

 

[arco]

My tip FWIW

Find a system and stick with it through thick and thin.

Usually when a system 'stops working' people immediately start looking for a new system, and this carries on until months later when they maybe look at the old system again. Remember that all systems will go through bad patches, and will often need tweaking to adapt to an ever changing market.

Ichimoku is a system with set rules.

Heres an overnight trade on Kiwi. Entry happened as I dozed blissfully unaware.

GTA - arco

 

[Kryzz]

Can anybody shed some light with regards to the FX market and the xmas period (december) please? It seems many of the $ based pairs are ranging for most of the session from what i've seen this first week of December.

I read over on FF, that many of the 'big players' in the FX market trade very light or take december off, is there any merit behind these statements?

Cheers

 

[lasty]

The market does slow down a bit however always expect the unexpected.
As you have highlighted many do take some time off but that can lead to liquidity issues and therefore price exaggeration.
If you want to play in this environment keep your position smaller than usual and widen your stops.
I hope Santa fills your stocking with profits !

 

[Kryzz]

The market does slow down a bit however always expect the unexpected.
As you have highlighted many do take some time off but that can lead to liquidity issues and therefore price exaggeration.
If you want to play in this environment keep your position smaller than usual and widen your stops.
I hope Santa fills your stocking with profits !

Thanks lasty, haha yeah lets hope santa is kind this year.