Forex Entry Points!

[StockyGuy]

I'd appreciate if forex traders could share their favourite basis or two for buying a currency pair at a particular point in time.

E.g., what is your favourite piece of news (I DON'T mean exceptional things like shorting USD after 9/11 tragedy)? Best candlestick formation to indicate upcoming reversal of trend? If using Linuxtroll-style WMA scalping, what is your best indication of clear up or clear down?


In other words what set of criteria say to you, "this is a sure thing - I gotta go long/short NOWWW"? (Obviously nothing is REALLY a sure thing, I know.) What entry type has repeatedly seen you come out ahead (the "positive expectancy" many refer to on this forum)?

 

[caribean]

G'day, you're asking a potentialy, very complicated question...and there's no simple answer.
If I attempted to answer your question, I'd have to explain my whole system,
I think that would be the case with any of the traders here...
Here's an example of what I would consider a good entry, I don't use indicators, just S/R, FIBS,T/L, CANDLESTICKS, that's not to say that indicators don't work for some people, just not for me...
Sorry I did not take the time to clean the chart a bit.

 

[caribean]

That was a short entry, of course!!

 

[StockyGuy]

Thanks, mate. Couple follow up questions: How do you use Fibs? You hold for a few days?

My BIG prob is I almost always let the losers run AND RUN lol. And I hold on to winners till they become losers - or close to it. I can be up to $200 in the green and I keep hoping for more and finally walk away with $10 Thus far I'm mainly looking at the 15 minute charts, looking for candlestick reversal patterns or STRONG trends and being cognisant of S/R lines.


Cheers!

 

[caribean]

Difficult questions to answer in the short time i have, i'm actually scalping the DAX as i type...
I use basic Gartley formations, NOT, the complicated Larry P. patterns (not because i don't think they work, but because they make my head spin)
S/R, or just fibs and fib convergences,T/L's and a handfull of candlestick formations,
i take into account funnymentals, and a good dose of discretion.
I let the market tell me if it's short or long, look at the EUR/USD now that's
a nice ABCD completed, right at the 200% and downtrendline, it may go further or retrace but
i won't be trading it untill a new set up appears.
I try not to hold overnight, but will if nesessary.

 

[StockyGuy]

Thanks. Yes, EUR/USD looks extremely interesting right now when seen from 15 min chart. I'm currently shorting CHF/JPY. (Tho 3 hourly shows upwards T/L, I think it has to be comin down in next hour from current level.)

 

[caribean]

looking at the USD/JPY if i was looking at the downside the 99.00 level looks interesting...as always, this is not a trade call, so please don't take it for one...

 

[caribean]

Picked up 60 odd points on one contract long on JPY/USD futures (short USD/JPY spot), but i did expect a retracement so i can re-enter for a longer ride...which didn't happen, sometimes you can be too smart....

 

[caribean]

Had a few wines and early dinner at the beach, so that's all for me tonight...

 

[caribean]

Why i picked 99.00, and what i anticipated happening...

 

[StockyGuy]

Had a few wines and early dinner at the beach, so that's all for me tonight...

Sounds like a hard life:

You clearly know what you're doing, but, personally, I've been finding scalping lasting a few minutes on average has given me most success. With longer time frames I almost always close the trade JUST before it would've been extremely profitable I guess my current style is largely inspired by tayser's intro to Linuxtroll's method THOUGH USING CANDLESTICKS - I don't quite get how to interpret those WMAs. Fortunately quick scalping is largely just jumping on a dead obvious trend. The Fibs are are not needed. Ah, I'm just about at stage I KNOW how little I know lol. So much to learn!

Cheers!

 

[caribean]

Use whatever works for you, i've got nothing against scalping, though, i don't think candlesticks have that much value at very short timeframes, but you can prove me wrong.
Try this if you can, on whatever timeframe you are using, zoom right out to the extreme, then pick the most obvious S/R, where price has reacted previously and put horizontal lines there, then pick the not so obvious S/R and put different type of horizontal lines there, now zoom back out and trade it (on demo) live, watch for patterns, flags, consolidations/breakouts, 123's, etc.
If you find you have enough time, try to exit with a limit order, rather than hitting exit at market...if you try it, tell me what you think...

 

[StockyGuy]

Thanks, caribean.

Tonight was almost complete contradiction of what I said about preferring scalping. I checked OANDA FX News and there was very bullish general direction predicted for USD/ZAR. It looked convincing.

I entered and tried using S/Rs. As you see in chart below I misjudged a low and bought AGAIN - but patience paid off and bull run eventually resumed. I would've likely stayed in longer but gotta sleep lol. I knew once it broke the recent resistance line (lower purple) it'd power on. So yeah I followed good tip and allowed the bull time to reassert itself. But, yes, I had a lil bit of money on it lol. (It probably shows poor character but I just can't treat demo accounts like live trading!)

This was my ONLY trade taken tonight - if only they could all be like that


PEACE

 

[caribean]

Well done, i don't want to sound like a guru, i'm not one, but if i was looking at scalping i'd find a currency that moves a fair bit, perhaps the GBP/USD ?
lower TF, 5 min's? and watch the price action on the S/R levels, a higher TF
trend picture helps even when scalping, i think.
Good luck, and good trading whichever way you decide to go.