For bottom pickers and knife catchers

[SoBadAtTrading]

Bought some REF today. Company has no debt, most of their earnings are in GBP, exchange rate has improved since 2H08. Earnings expected to be flat to slightly down this year. Typically pays out 100% of its earnings as dividends, current forecast Dividend for FY09 of 21 cents, bought at $0.98 today, forecast dividend yield of 21.4%, finished the day at $0.96, the way things are going it could be $0.86 by tomorrow. Clearly the market doesn't think the dividend is sustainable. Time will tell.

I got this one just 1 day too early
Looking at the course of sales, it does look like some sort of programmed selling/buying is going on.

 

[MichaelD]

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%


1 Month
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%


2 Months
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


3 Months
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


4 Months
Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%

 

[BearCuban12]

What about BLY, NWH and MAH. Does anyone expect big gains once all of this panic selling malakey finishes?

 

[Sean K]

Anyone going to take a stab at catching RIO on the open?



Ooo, that was punful...

 

[wayneL]

Anyone going to take a stab at catching RIO on the open?



Ooo, that was punful...

I've been trying to sell some WT<blinkety-blink>OTM credit spreads on RTP (NYSE listed RIO), but MMs don't want to play.

Question: Is RIO scrip worth nailing to the wall at these prices?? I'm a bit sceptical of miners TBH. (But then, I'm pretty much sceptical of everything

 

[noirua]

While a stock hitting all time lows or plunging dramatically is not necessarily a good stock recommendation, there are sometimes opportunities to be had from things oversold.

I'm not sure if we're getting to the point of the market hitting a bottom, but it's time we longer term investors started looking at some potential value in the market, and where our cash could be directed. Bottom pickers.

I think this thread could also cover stocks that look to have been sold off too much on sentiment, or fear, with no real fundamental foundation. Knife catchers.

Of course, you'd have to give a reason for the nomination, in whatever basic form. FA and/or TA, or whatever, on why something has gone pear shaped but which might be a good opportunity.

Any thoughts?

Nearly 5 months later and this post still seems to apply, now even more so. Ok if you just get nicked by the knife but not good if it takes a finger.

 

[MichaelD]

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 56 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.3%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 21.7%
18 open trades - 2 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 3.7%

-----

Bottom Picking:
59 open trades - 4 showing a profit, 55 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss 50.8%

Mine:
37 now closed trades - total closed loss 23.1%
19 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 16 showing a loss - total open loss 2.3%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%

-----

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%

 

[Sean K]

Perhaps a chance to grab the TLS falling knife.

Initially oversold maybe.

Short term tradeable.

Maybe.

 

[prawn_86]

So far im 2 out of 4...

QOL picked at 11.5c. Virtually broke now, not much hope of recovering
EDE already in a prolonged halt. Probably broke
IPR same price as what i picked it but has paid a 13% divvy
PLT about 50% up on what i picked.

Still 'happy' to hold them all

 

[Nyden]

Picked up my official first 'long term' hold of the bear market - CBA. Got in around about $28 today, already sitting on a nice 3% gain Looks to be fairly strong support around 27-28, and it's been sitting on yearly lows, perhaps due to fear surrounding CNP. Of course, what with the capital raising - this will probably change tomorrow :

 

[chops_a_must]

Perhaps a chance to grab the TLS falling knife.

Initially oversold maybe.

Short term tradeable.

Maybe.

Wait for it to stabilise Kennas, and have a crack at the gaps.

3 from 3 with everything I've bought on the way down. Pure **** more than anything I think...

 

[Gundini]

Yes I have started to have a bit of a nibble.

Couldn't resist TLS Kennas, only picked up 1/4 of my intended holdings.

Also have picked up some WBC, CDU, BSL, CSL, TPI and EWC over the last few days.

It's not that I have turned bullish, but they are all at lows and represent long term value for my portfolio.

Heck, I've been on the sidelines for over a year now, and while I still expect another leg down before some sort of base is reached, I feel like chipping away at the quality on sale!

 

[MichaelD]

So far im 2 out of 4...

QOL picked at 11.5c. Virtually broke now, not much hope of recovering
EDE already in a prolonged halt. Probably broke
IPR same price as what i picked it but has paid a 13% divvy
PLT about 50% up on what i picked.

Still 'happy' to hold them all

Erm - not quite the whole story.

QOL - in at 0.125 (next open after call made), currently 0.008 (last close)
EDE - in at 0.265 (next open after call made), last trade 0.145 (in halt)
IPR - in at 0.084 (next open after call made), last trade 0.076 (last close), dividend paid 0.01 per share
PLT - in at 0.14 (next open after call made), last trade 0.195 (last close).

Assuming fixed % position sizing of $10,000 per position, let's tot up the actual figures (excluding brokerage).

QOL - $10,000 - now worth $640
EDE - $10,000 - now worth $5470 (at last trade)
IPR - $10,000 - now worth $9050 + $1190 dividend
PLT - $10,000 - now $13,930

$40000 is now worth $30280 including dividend

If EDE is a write off, then
$40000 is now worth $24810 including dividend.

 

[prawn_86]

Hence why the embarasment symbol Michael, im not too impressed with my results, losses far outweigh the gains. But hopefully that will change over time.

How much is the market or small cap sector down by? would be interesting for a % comparison

It all depends on EDE really and if they can come out and actually survive, but i doubt it, if they come out of a halt they will prob drop like a stone down to about 1c

 

[psychic]

QRS is one for the bottom pickers and knife catchers

Here is a 2 month chart showing the drop, particulary the large drop on Friday last week, with volume I must add.

 

[CecilHills]

Gundini, Top tips, mate.6 from 6; substantial gains on all. Would you take profits on any?Thanks.

 

[sinner]

Are we allowed to post trades we made but forgot to post here as tips?

I picked a slice of RMS at 0.45, now at 0.56 (unchanged for the day) up 24.4%!

I made a good play on IZZ up 20% but forgot to sell out due to uni exams before it dropped down to 10%.

PS: I am officially a bachelor of science woohoo!

PPS: I think IAU is still in good zone for bottom pickers at 0.2

 

[CamKawa]

With market going sideways for a while it's been slim pickings on the knife catching front however I think ASX might worth a punt. What do you reckon?

 

[Sean K]

With market going sideways for a while it's been slim pickings on the knife catching front however I think ASX might worth a punt. What do you reckon?

I don't know, breaking 28-30 looks pretty ordinary. Could be a knife catch and quick sell, but that opportunity might have already gone. Decent support after a breakdown here looks to be around $20 ish.

 

[CamKawa]

...and DJS? It's had a fairly strong intraday rally. Is that good or an opportunity missed?