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For bottom pickers and knife catchers

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I guess 2 of those open trades out of the 57 are even?

More importantly, how do you know more of those 57 havne't been closed? Some people just post and then disappear or won't tell you when their analysis has been invalidated...........more importantly still, some won't even know when their analysis has been invalidated and will have no method other than to set and forget or close it when they get scared........
 
MRC - all valid points, and part of the reason I merely posted the numbers. I have my views on the subject, but would rather let the numbers reveal what they will reveal.

Here are some interesting stats expanding on the numbers;

Bottom Picking - we are now 2 months into the exercise.

Open winners 41%
Average open win 17%
Average open loss -25%

The obvious conclusion at this point that can be drawn is that 3 out of 5 bottom picks kept going down.
 
Yes, definately interesting stats and thx for keeping track of them.

I will be interested to see how it goes over say a couple year period.

I for one will let you know when I exit my two long positions here. Both CCP and EQN, for now, they remain open. Not sure if they are up or down since posting them here, but I am looking more for the next couple years and them becoming double baggers.

It would be good if anybody who posted in this thread and is still reading, posts when they realise their analysis is invalidated. Will make the stats a bit more realistic. Though, the quality of analysis can then be questioned, including my own, but there is quite a large number of pickers in this test. Some used T/A, some used F/A, some used both and some simply used their 'feelings' by the looks. Many will also have differing timeframes and many will be looking for differing returns (specs with huge upside potential etc) lol. Either way, provides for an interesting study. ASF bottom pickers Vs a tested and prooven system.

Thx once more for the stats.
 
The only one i closed (which i stated) was TMR for about 30% profit.

Still have open:
QOL - down 30%
IPR - up 38%
EDE - down 28%
PLT - even


QOL is constantly being evaluated, but is still a medium term hold.

IPR I will think of selling when its MC is above its cash at bank (currently negative EV being assigned to it).

EDE is long term, like 3 - 5 years. If its hythane does get installed in EVERY bus in India wel then who knows what will happen...

About even so far (slightly up) assuming equal position sizing.
 
What do you all think of RAT?
Have watched this one tumble all the way down. Off about 27% (from memory) today however up about 25% from its low.
So worth a punt or not?

Cheers
 
The Mint Man said:
What do you all think of RAT?
Have watched this one tumble all the way down. Off about 27% (from memory) today however up about 25% from its low.
So worth a punt or not?

Cheers
Click to expand...
Cripes, what a chart. Not many worse. Probably because it has the words America and Trust in it. eeeeek!

And, I ass u me, has something to do with property.

Might be good as a knife catch trade with a close stop, but just as likely to go into administration at the drop of a hat.

(Just a pluck, no idea what it does.....)
 
yes, yes and yes. It was to sell off some its portfolio but that fell through a couple of days ago, however my guess would be that there is someone out there willing to buy some American commercial property (mostly government tenants last time I checked) at a good price.
Seriously considering having a go!

Cheers
 
AIM could be one to watch. Looks to of found a floor @ ~ 0.025 and ticked up to 0.029 today. Positive Divergence on the daily aswell. Would of been good to pick up a few days earlier.
 

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Well minty down another 25% today ,I'D wait tomorrow it may be even cheaper ,the way it's going
 
justjohn said:
Well minty down another 25% today ,I'D wait tomorrow it may be even cheaper ,the way it's going
Click to expand...

Had an order in at $0.04 the other day when it was getting smashed, unfortunately it didn't quite get there..... someone has to turn a buck on this thing haha wouldn't it make you feel good if a mate made some on it.:
 
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%



Last Month:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


2 Months Ago:

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%
 
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%

Mine:
31 now closed trades - total closed loss 20.9%
18 open trades - 3 showing a profit, 15 showing a loss - total open loss 3.0%


Last Month
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 20 showing a profit, 37 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -11.7%

Mine:
14 now closed trades - total closed loss 4.0%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%



2 Months Ago:
57 open trades - 23 showing a profit, 32 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -6.8%

Mine:
13 now closed trades - total closed loss 3.6%
19 open trades - 9 showing a profit, 10 showing a loss - total open profit 4.0%


3 Months Ago:

Bottom Picking:
51 open trades - 24 showing a profit, 27 showing a loss - total open loss -4.1%

Mine:
7 now closed trades - total closed loss 1.6%
19 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 12 showing a loss - total open loss 0.6%
 
MichaelD said:
Bottom Picking:
57 open trades - 7 showing a profit, 50 showing a loss
1 closed trade
Total Open/Closed loss -41.0%
Click to expand...

Have you taken into account any dividends?

IPR did a 1c divvy. From my 'buy' price thats about a 12% return. Not much but better then nothing.
 
Ouch on both methods!

I'm still holding EQN

It's my hedge encase the global economy and Dr Copper decide a positive prognosis.

Sticking to my guns with that one. But intraday trading is far and away the way to go, volatility has been B E A U T I F U L. Though I'm a bit worried with the book thinning and instos being forced to sell. Easier intraday manipulation and less paper to follow.
 

already selling mate .check out the shareholder notices of late lots of the managed funds cashing in a few for liquidity reasons due to the mass withdrawal attempts of nervous depositers heading for the safety of "guaranteed" deposits in the banks ..some have been buying here and there but the majority of notices ive seen have been more on the sell side

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/filter/shareholder+notices?opendocument


cheers
 

I hope I've picked the bottom here, I also like CVN & NMS but catching knives might be more apt.
 
Geez it was a bit premature in July but I am calling the bottom on the A-REIT sector now that Stockland, GPT, Goodman and Mirvac have recapitalised.

A few are flying today - have a look at Abacus. But then again all A-REIT's are at 52-week lows (if nit greater).

My pick in July (LEP) has held up alright.

The resources tips have, off course, been obliterated!
 
nunthewiser said:
hey at least ya got a nice low% loss on stopout point if trade breaks recent support....... oh thats if it dont majorly gap thru it .

good luck with it hope ya make a motza
Click to expand...

Still going down, maybe the bottom is 1.31, been playing & losing on this one for a long while now but It would seem similar to most stocks on ASX and the world. Pick the bottom of the ASX then jump on just about anything.
 
Bought some REF today. Company has no debt, most of their earnings are in GBP, exchange rate has improved since 2H08. Earnings expected to be flat to slightly down this year. Typically pays out 100% of its earnings as dividends, current forecast Dividend for FY09 of 21 cents, bought at $0.98 today, forecast dividend yield of 21.4%, finished the day at $0.96, the way things are going it could be $0.86 by tomorrow. Clearly the market doesn't think the dividend is sustainable. Time will tell.
 
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