Following the herd

[Synergy]

So today seems to be the day of the herd. The 'smart' people are out of the market already (i'm assuming) and it seems as though there is going to be a bit of a mass bail out on open. Surely when public sentiment it at its lowest a turnaround is in sight? What are peoples thoughts? If the herd jumps out today does the smart money jump in tomorrow? Or does the slide look set to continue? I just question that if you aren't already out of the market, and aren't getting out today, are you going to sell in the near future?

 

[shaunm]

I'm probably gritting my teeth and holding for now.
My logic is that if I sell now I lose 10k and the way I look at it, the interest I'm paying on the money I have in the market will cost me far less than $10,000 in 12 months; actually it would probably need to be at this level for 2 years to cost me more. So my hope and belief is that bottom must be near and things will get back on track (perhaps to a lesser extent) during 2008.
But hey, I am a mug punter who has done a little research on the stocks I hold.

 

[Nyden]

So today seems to be the day of the herd. The 'smart' people are out of the market already (i'm assuming) and it seems as though there is going to be a bit of a mass bail out on open. Surely when public sentiment it at its lowest a turnaround is in sight? What are peoples thoughts? If the herd jumps out today does the smart money jump in tomorrow? Or does the slide look set to continue? I just question that if you aren't already out of the market, and aren't getting out today, are you going to sell in the near future?

I think people are still holding out for some miraculous recovery, which just isn't going to happen. I don't think today is the 'day of reckoning', that might come tomorrow after the US actually closes deep in the red .

(The fact that many people are still clinging / waiting for this recovery, tells me that.)

If the problems of the world remain unchanged, then the fundamentals of our market will have changed. Lower demand, lower prices; and nothing in the market will be undervalued per se, just re-valued.

I think it's pretty clear now to say this isn't just some run of the mill correction, followed up by massive gains by all the "clever" people buying these "bargains". If you had bought just 2 sessions ago, you'd probably be down already a years worth of bank interest.

I keep posing the question of, why would anyone buy? For what reason? The US is only going to keep reporting bad data, Aus is going to continue to follow their sentiment, so; why would anyone buy when it's painfully obvious it's just going to continue dropping?

 

[chops_a_must]

I keep posing the question of, why would anyone buy? For what reason? The US is only going to keep reporting bad data, Aus is going to continue to follow their sentiment, so; why would anyone buy when it's painfully obvious it's just going to continue dropping?

Because there is no one left to sell?

Personally, if ASIA doesn't step up, I think the SPI will close down about 100 points from the open. It's running a bit at the moment. Going to be tricky picking times to sell though. We shall see how truly liquid these ramped pennies really are...

 

[Junior]

I think people are still holding out for some miraculous recovery, which just isn't going to happen. I don't think today is the 'day of reckoning', that might come tomorrow after the US actually closes deep in the red .

(The fact that many people are still clinging / waiting for this recovery, tells me that.)

If the problems of the world remain unchanged, then the fundamentals of our market will have changed. Lower demand, lower prices; and nothing in the market will be undervalued per se, just re-valued.

I think it's pretty clear now to say this isn't just some run of the mill correction, followed up by massive gains by all the "clever" people buying these "bargains". If you had bought just 2 sessions ago, you'd probably be down already a years worth of bank interest.

I keep posing the question of, why would anyone buy? For what reason? The US is only going to keep reporting bad data, Aus is going to continue to follow their sentiment, so; why would anyone buy when it's painfully obvious it's just going to continue dropping?

There hasn't been any figures from Australia's big companies that show weakening fundamentals. You can buy shares in one of the big 4 and receive divs of 8% grossed up.

 

[tronic72]

Nyden;

"I think it's pretty clear now to say this isn't just some run of the mill correction, followed up by massive gains by all the "clever" people buying these "bargains". If you had bought just 2 sessions ago, you'd probably be down already a years worth of bank interest."

I agree. For the last few weeks I've been selling and buying down, hoping that the correction was just that and it would rebound. I'd be able to claim back some of my losses and be in the market at the reduced cost.

I've sold all my position and am going to take a step back and regroup. I think this is just the tip of the iceberg. The Aussie market has been tumbling for weeks but the US and European markets have only just started their decline.

 

[megla]

Well, I decided to get out from my dog stocks and cut the losses which were very large, so that I would be cashed up to get some excellent bargains.

Had to pull away from the emotional attachment to some shares that I have in order to do it, but by hell I feel better now!

So, where is my shopping list

 

[chops_a_must]

I've sold all my position and am going to take a step back and regroup. I think this is just the tip of the iceberg. The Aussie market has been tumbling for weeks but the US and European markets have only just started their decline.

That's just not true.

Europe broke key support just last week.

Riddle me this... if all of you guys are selling out completely, how come the XAO/ SPI is not continuing to go down? What's going to happen when all like minded people such as yourselves finish?

 

[skating101]

HA im going long on this bad boy, im not geared at all its just cash in hand baby so holding out and trusting strong fundamentals is the game plan, maybe even buying up the oversold yet good stocks

 

[Nyden]

That's just not true.

Europe broke key support just last week.

Riddle me this... if all of you guys are selling out completely, how come the XAO/ SPI is not continuing to go down? What's going to happen when all like minded people such as yourselves finish?

Err...it is.
Time you said that was 180, now it's 240...

It isn't just "muppets" & lemmings selling out. Selling is an important part of protecting capital, & I have no intent of holding a stock at risk just to make back losses, that's just foolishness.

 

[chops_a_must]

Err...it is.
Time you said that was 180, now it's 240...

It isn't just "muppets" & lemmings selling out. Selling is an important part of protecting capital, & I have no intent of holding a stock at risk just to make back losses, that's just foolishness.

Yep, hahahaha.

Still nett short. Until there is evidence of a turn around, that will be the case. Only keeping some longs purely as a hedge.

I think at the time instos and the like were buying up the SPI, and selling stocks. Hence the massively high volume. But I did expect that to hold until about an hours time. Just goes to show the strength in the drive down. Beyond all expectations.

At the moment it clearly isn't muppets selling out anymore. I'd say it is the financial sector who have a lot of equities, preparing their balance sheets for the half, and preparing for the need to have extra cash reserves in this market. It's kind of the elephant in the room I think. The downward strength is more than what lemmings could do I'd reckon.

 

[Nyden]

Yep, hahahaha.

Still nett short. Until there is evidence of a turn around, that will be the case. Only keeping some longs purely as a hedge.

I think at the time instos and the like were buying up the SPI, and selling stocks. Hence the massively high volume. But I did expect that to hold until about an hours time. Just goes to show the strength in the drive down. Beyond all expectations.

At the moment it clearly isn't muppets selling out anymore. I'd say it is the financial sector who have a lot of equities, preparing their balance sheets for the half, and preparing for the need to have extra cash reserves in this market. It's kind of the elephant in the room I think. The downward strength is more than what lemmings could do I'd reckon.

Yep, agreed.

Best choice I made selling out remaining stocks this morning, already saved over 6%!

 

[heads up]

"maybe even buying up the oversold yet good stocks"

which ones, mate?

OXR 2.60
BHP 31.72
WBC 24.83
ZFX 8.44

plenty liquidity- go for it! myself i sold. 7.3% for cash on deposit versus global uncertainty and market sentiment.

good luck

 

[stockwhizben]

i didnt want to follow the herd but the index keeps getting worse. i was out too at the open today. only keeping 100 Rio's for the takeover factor.

anyone think the herd will make the asx and all ords lose 300 by close? i say yes

 

[Nyden]

i didnt want to follow the herd but the index keeps getting worse. i was out too at the open today. only keeping 100 Rio's for the takeover factor.

anyone think the herd will make the asx and all ords lose 300 by close? i say yes

It's practically already at 300!
Sorry, 299.9 lol

 

[stockwhizben]

lol. yeah i dont have whiz bang share software so just going off asx and nab online trading.
okay since that last one was a bit easy, what do you think about 330 down?
i say yes

 

[chops_a_must]

I'll have a punt and say 5225 will be the low.

 

[Nyden]

lol. yeah i dont have whiz bang share software so just going off asx and nab online trading.
okay since that last one was a bit easy, what do you think about 330 down?
i say yes

It could definitely recover. But will it? I wouldn't bet 5 dollars on it

 

[ta2693]

I bought a lot MLX, LYC, BHP, TZL.ASX,WOR today.

I bet on RBA will cut the interest rate 75bps at the end of the month.
It is very unwise to sell in market like today.

 

[Nyden]

I bought a lot MLX, LYC, BHP, TZL.ASX,WOR today.

I bet on RBA will cut the interest rate 75bps at the end of the month.
It is very unwise to sell in market like today.

Why is it unwise? It's a fair certainty that tomorrow will be bad as well.
I've already saved 6% by selling out this morning, I could buy in now if I wanted to, which I don't.