FML - Focus Minerals

[sagitar]

Very nice breakout today guys, hope you were all onboard. What kicked it all off this morning was the buyer with 7.4M shares at 3c. Combined with the record number of shares traded today, I'm pretty confident it was probably a Fund grabbing stock while it's still significantly undervalued. Have a good evening.

cheers all...

 

[choochoo35]

Yes, you called it sagitar. Nice to see some action without any fundamental reason for a break out. Imagine if we get an upgrade?

 

[fureien]

Oh man, I was at work today without acess to a computer. And it was really busy. I was fully stressing over my stocks. Finally I rsorted to using iPhone and. Boy was I smiling when I saw XML. Great call sagitar.

Btw choochoo35 what's an ugrade?
I think besides the strong buying volume, it could also be the anouncement of drilling recommencement that's to be anticipated this week or next.

The question is whether to take profits tommorrow or friday. I it holds to friday. It mite go nuts because of the long weekend

 

[choochoo35]

By "upgrades" I mean 2 things: production and drilling - IE Late in last milling campaign FML encountered high sulphur grades, restricting production/affects recovery of ore - Also why ThreeMH so important. Current milling campaign began on May 1st.

If current drilling at perserverence deposit shows better than expected size of mineralisation deposit/or grades this is GOOD. Should affect SP.

Either way, IMO there is a lot of potential over medium term. I could take some nice profits now -- and do expect some profit-taking in next few days, reducing SP -- then buy back in, but I don't want to miss anything.

I'm in for long haul.

Good luck all.

 

[legs]

This is what the chart looks like now... has anyone an idea of where they think it might stop at? I can see a very nice pennant formed but cant see where it may go to.

 

[fureien]

By "upgrades" I mean 2 things: production and drilling - IE Late in last milling campaign FML encountered high sulphur grades, restricting production/affects recovery of ore - Also why ThreeMH so important. Current milling campaign began on May 1st.

If current drilling at perserverence deposit shows better than expected size of mineralisation deposit/or grades this is GOOD. Should affect SP.

Either way, IMO there is a lot of potential over medium term. I could take some nice profits now -- and do expect some profit-taking in next few days, reducing SP -- then buy back in, but I don't want to miss anything.

I'm in for long haul.

Good luck all.

same im in long haul too. FML looks great but i wanna avoid being hit by day traders so ive put a sell order in already

This is what the chart looks like now... has anyone an idea of where they think it might stop at? I can see a very nice pennant formed but cant see where it may go to.

well the current breakout past 3 cents is certainly great, as it will certainly be a psychological breakout and influence ppl to start buying, but in terms of price and volume its nothing spectacular when compared to usual breakouts.

so i see potential to reach at least 3.5 cents but the real target is 4 cents.

we will see heavy resistnace there, and it would take some real good drilling results to break through them. once it breaks 4 cents, i would call that spectacular.

currently im keeping an eye on when the gap might close to sell, but im defnitely buying back in

 

[choochoo35]

IMO 4 cents is underestimating value of this stock. Look at the numbers and see where price of gold is/may be in next 6 mths. With prod'n at 100,000 oz/pa I can't see why 8-10 cents ain't right price for FML. Many things have to go as forecast - POG/drilling results/prod'n/3MH refurb etc. but not much downside IMO. S/term profit takers will see some intermittent adjustments to SP but I'd rather ride for awhile. Current strength at 3.0/3.1 cents is ominous.

Cheers,

CC35

 

[fureien]

im really talking about short term. pretty much everything is undervalued rigth now, and its not logical to expect a proper recovery anytime soon. regardless of how strong gold is or what its worth, in the short term we arent gunna see it 8- 10 cents.
theres going to be small daily movements, followed by days of reversals due to hitting resistance points. and selling pressure from day traders taking profits. so we will only see 8 - 10 cents towards end of the year.
although from the past 2 months, i dont noe what to expect anymore, we mite hit it next week, next month, next year even. but realistically at least in the short term, you can expect that 4 cents would be a safe bet for june.

 

[choochoo35]

Agree Fureien: 4c this month is a good bet IMO. I am talking EOY @ 8-10c. And also agree anything can happen with the world at the moment - but I'm very bullish on FML continual upgrades in 2H and POG continual + ... and once market sees potential of FML can't see SP adjustments being anything other than profit-taking - IE few 0.0cents retreat, followed by gains until EOY. Of course, caveat is all keeps going well in the world and no more surprises to spook market. But that's just my position - if you bought at 2.4/2.5 a few weeks ago can understand why you'd wanna take 3+ cents if you've got something better to put your $$$ into. I just don't see anything better at mo.

Best of Luck.

 

[Sean K]

Agree Fureien: 4c this month is a good bet IMO. I am talking EOY @ 8-10c.

Choochoo, there's some TA supporting 4c short term, but nothing for 8-10c. Simply producing X amount of au is not enough. Can you please add in the rest of the fundamental analysis? Thanks! kennas

 

[choochoo35]

Hi kennas,

I just posted a long-winded reply and got timed out when I hit "submit". So I'll try to summarise...

I am not trading this stock now. Changed tack after some research and after getting an analysis which I can't post (not co. related so don't read anything in to that) - and I am now HOLDING. There are plenty of valuations floating around, which I have compared to the one I received and many offer similar 8-10c range.

FML remains a Spec IMO but has a lot going for it at current price. Caveats are POG in 6mths - not now - and successful recommissioning of 3MH. FML has to prove they can produce at 100Kopa. If they can, you can do your own numbers on 100Kopa @ 1000-1200US (IMO) and cost of around 500AU on base of 1.8Mou. Current processing agreement at Greenfields site allows only 480,000 tpa. 3MH will allow 1.2Mtpa plus Greenfields until 2017(?) if required. Also:
- Good management - sound recent decisions give me confidence and they rarely ramp the SP.
- Future upgrades - eg: Perserverence Deposit 225 south level latest face samples = higher grades and open at south and depth/Brilliant Deposit 80% increase on previous resource estimate/Empress should be brought into production this year (47Ko) etc.
- Hedge Free in Sept/Debt Free in Dec/Cash flow positive
- No one has factored Nepean into SP. Nickel can't stay where it is forever and Nepean has never been tested at depth.

Of course, DYOR and my assumptions can fly out the window and I'll be way wrong - that's why I haven't mortaged the house... but when I add up the numbers and look at what I paid for my shares it's worth a hold.

All the best,

CC35

 

[fureien]

i think the general consensus is that FML is worth taking a plunge, if not for the long term, then at least until the end of the year. theres alot of potential. i personally like how everythings coming back online, and POG and the debt levels and overal great management. as always be ready when and if things do take a turn for the worse. that being said, ive already made great returns with this stock already. something really bad has to happen to rock this boat!

 

[choochoo35]

Well, that little burst over last week or so didn't amount to much. But 3c base is noteworthy with POG recent performance. Any chartists have a read?

 

[UPKA]

consolidation after the jump, a pennant has been formed, if the POG hold up, should expect another jump soon...

 

[TradeDaily]

Down to 0.026 today and considering doubling my holdings. Any chartists out there have any insight on whether this one is headed from here?

 

[fureien]

i cant believe it hit 2.6 cents

i bought in at 2.5 cents and didnt sell after that last jump cuase i had faith 3 cents would hold.

in my opinion 2.5 cents wud be the lowest that it will drop. that drop last week was purely becaue market was down and there was nothing to hold the sp up.
so this week we might see it dip below 2.6 slightly. im expecting a recovery eventually anyway.
sd upka mentioned its formed a pennant, so most likely it will jump. quite confident about this. im considering loading up more of fml if it hits 2.5

it all depends how the market opens on monday. because i dont remember expecting any company announcements anytime soon, so all movements would be people trading based off charts probably. and the charts say buy

 

[choochoo35]

Campbell Baird was bullish during German interview last week (estimates POG at US1100 in next 6 mths/3MH refurb and debt repayments on target/record milling campaign just completed) - and POG still holding above 900+US despite downward pressure... yet we still get slow descent back to major support at 2.5. How many holders will remain patient?

 

[TheMainMan]

I just picked up a wedge of these. There's not much volume in the stock and people certainty aren't selling at 2.5 (well not if they don't have to).

Not sure if the record milling campaign is a one off thou' If they start to get repeat results like that one. Well it's bingo.

otherwise the way I see it is most of the hard work has been done, now we just have to wait see...... opcorn: ......

 

[choochoo35]

Volume now and they're selling at 2.4, not just 2.5. I'm still a believer - bought some more today - but only just...

 

[fureien]

wow todays price was a bit unnerving eh

i offloaded half my holdings at 2.6 cents after not selling during the breakout.

i tried to buy some today at 2.2 cents but it recovered before my order could get processed. although volume is low i think these prices are a bargain. im a believer and it may be a long wait, but all i gotta do is buy some around 2.2 or 2.3 cents and hold till december then see easy profits when market reacts to some announcements. ok that sounded like a ramp but yeh its something ive been thinking of doing for quite a while.

i dont really want to change my order to 2.3 cents atm cause i think theres still some room for it to dip. lets hope my patience pays off