Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
- Joined
- 13 January 2014
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Yep, all true.
Yep, all true.i agree that there are ways to work around it, but they'll likely be more inconvenient than if the lot sizes were all 100 to begin with. one might not want to roll all the way out to dec (i normally prefer to roll out a month, two tops, as i like the faster decay of the shorter dated stuff - not saying that's the best way to do it, it's just my own preference) so copping the lot size differential may be unavoidable.
rolling as two separate legs runs the risk of slippage. may or may not turn out to be a big deal in the end, but ideally one shouldn't have to be concerned about slippage when rolling.
in theory you could punch in a combo order with some wacky ratio to try and avoid the slippage, eg. if you have 50 of the 100 lot size contracts and you want to roll to 46 of the 107 lot size contracts (covering 4,922 units of underlying) you could try punching in a combo with a 25:23 ratio. i don't know the inner mechanics of combo orders as well as @cutz does though, so i'm not sure if such a combo would actually get filled - i've only ever booked combos with "standard'ish" ratios eg. 1:2, 2:3, 1:3.
BHP has something similar, it has the odd option chain with 104 lot sizes. these days i just avoid those chains, even if it means i don't get the quicker decay by having to sell longer dated contracts that do have the 100 lot size, i just find it more convenient in practice to run positions off a consistent 100 lot size. YMMV.
It does make you wonder that if I could work out these basic figures using a simple calculator, the annual reports and a basic understanding of the business, why couldn’t these analysts figure it out?
China has just blocked LNG from Australia, once they feel they have enough stock, IO will be next.that could explain the forecastAnyone believe Treasury's forecast of IO dropping to $55 a tn by Mar 22?
Last time IO was around that price FMG was about $4.
Treasury don't have a great track record with these forecasts I guess.
Anyone believe Treasury's forecast of IO dropping to $55 a tn by Mar 22?
Last time IO was around that price FMG was about $4.
Treasury don't have a great track record with these forecasts I guess.
China plays the long game, that is how they have achieved so much in 20 years, they will be working on the IO problem of that I'm certain.China has just blocked LNG from Australia, once they feel they have enough stock, IO will be next.that could explain the forecast
True could be $25 in 6 monthsIf Treasury are calling a price of $55 by next year .. the price is likely to be anything else. They will more than likely get the year wrong and the price wrong
Treasury has consistently been the worst forecasters of the IO price.
Treasury don't have a great track record with these forecasts I guess.
Imagine if I told you that you had to guess what the Iron Ore price was going to be in 12 months, but if it ended up being higher than your prediction you got a pat on the back ,while if it’s lower you get get publicly humiliated and possibly fired.If Treasury are calling a price of $55 by next year .. the price is likely to be anything else. They will more than likely get the year wrong and the price wrong
Treasury has consistently been the worst forecasters of the IO price.
If Treasury are calling a price of $55 by next year .. the price is likely to be anything else. They will more than likely get the year wrong and the price wrong
Treasury has consistently been the worst forecasters of the IO price.
Champion Iron has just lodged its 3 month and 12 month accounts
Record EBITDA1 of $275.8M for the three-month period ended March 31, 2021, compared to $60.7M for the same period in 2020. Record EBITDA1 of $819.5M for the year ended March 31, 2021, compared to $347.4M for the same period in 2020;
Probably a good insight into the sort of numbers to be expected from FMG for the year
Also, the best incentive to increase supply is higher prices, so over time higher prices naturally increase supply.The CCP and some other commentators have been pushing the line that China won't stand for the current iron ore price gouging and will create new suppliers and develop internal rules to force a lowering of prices.
This article suggest that won't happen quickly or easily. Main points
In any case Australian miners are rapidly moving to green steel production and diversifying their exports. And with billions of windfall dollars at hand this will happen fairly quickly.
- The sheer amount of ore required means quite huge mining and infrastructure development - which can't happen quickly
- The sovereign risk factor in African countries is high. No point developing a mine if the country won't pay it's debts
- The current Australian ore suppliers are exceptionally cost efficient. They can stand lower prices far longer than any up and coming development
From an FMG perspective I think they have a bright future.
China’s ‘frustrating reality’ cruelly exposed
In its race to become the most powerful nation on earth, China has flexed its muscles over the past few weeks with moves that have sent shivers down the backbone of Australia’s economy.www.news.com.au
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