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fancy a green stock today!
people saying news leaked out but i think its only anticipation of construction report
Date: 20/2/2008
Author: Kevin Andrusiak
Source: The Australian --- Page: 22
Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) remains on target to deliver the first iron orefrom its Chichester Ranges project in Western Australia by mid-May 2008. Thegroup is nearing completion of its 270km railway to Port Hedland, although ithas disclosed the cost of the project has risen by $A66m as project partnerWorleyParsons increased its estimated cost for the completed line by almost$A62m. FMG shares closed $A0.07 lower at $A7.45 on 19 February 2008
Macquarie is even worseExtract from Citi:
<snip>
No comments further and here goes the report as appeared in FN Arena :
FMG - FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD
Citi rates FMG as Initiation of coverage - Sell, High Risk - Despite being iron ore bulls, the broker has initiated coverage of this company with a Sell rating.
The broker has noted that in five short years, the company has come a long way from an iron ore hopeful to being on the cusp of production. Ramp-up to 45mt, optimisation to 55mt and expansion plans to 100+mt are very aggressive, but given the commissioning risks still to be faced, Citi considers the shares have run beyond fair value.
The target price has been set at $7 and has been derived from a 75/25 weighting of net present value and price earnings multiple.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.63 Difference$0.63) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately - 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY08 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of -3.40 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is -224.41.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
I can see this going to higher as it gets closer to it's first shipment.
I can see this going considerably lower once the market realises exactly how much they will be earning.
Unless Twiggy sells out to the Chinese...
I was merely posting a contarian view to that of another member.
Isnt it funny how all those who are long are never normally happy to hear an opposite opinion.
EDIT - The forawrd PE of this co is huge, which is the reason why i think it will fall. A view which is backed up by some (but not all) analysts
tell me what you just mentioned isn't considered 'down ramping' seeing though you are the moderator?
yeh but why do you even bother commenting about a stock you don't hold considering you have JMS and IRL both of which are down?
you consider yourself contarian,,, do you feel irritating people by unsubstantiated posts is a good idea?
you have no basis for what you are saying.
No, im saying that its status is probably still 'spec'. Officialy it is:
Business Description
Fortescue Metals Group Limited (FMG, formerly Allied Mining & Processing Limited) is a minerals exploration and development company with interests primarily in iron ore in Western Australia
So it looks as though it hasnt been upgraded to "producer" status yet. Although this should happen when the first shipment is made.
I know it has plenty of JORC, but my main 'point' is the fact that there are heaps of other companis out there, in the resource sector, with JORC'd reserves and are producing, that are still on very low PE's due to lack of market recognition. Whereas FMG is virtually increasing just because of its name.
.......Curr 2008 2009 2010
EPS -2.6 -5.1 31.2 52.9
So looking at this is it at a 2010 forward PE of 10 already. And a 2009 forward PE of approx 25.
My point is, there are current producers, on current PE's of just 2.
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