FMG - Fortescue Ltd

Sometimes the market can be so sadistic

I bought this stock in early August for $3.06 then sold a week odd ago for $3.00, as it appeared to be dropping off.

Within a day or two of selling it started heading up again. I got another buy signal on it a couple of days ago, but by the time I could check it out yesterday, it was already up about 6%, so I didn't buy. Today it's up another 9.4%, just closed at $3.85.

I'm sure there's some little man sitting there in the stock exchange watching what I'm doing on my computer... :

Cheers,
GP

GreatPig said:

I'm sure there's some little man sitting there in the stock exchange watching what I'm doing on my computer... :

Click to expand...

GP... Something tells me it may be this bloke. I think it's the same fella Chicken consults about the future price of SBM.

I bought this stock back in late August 2004 for 64 cents. It dropped, I lost $1000 and sold out only to see it reach over $5.00, 6 months later....me a stupid fool!

FMG has a bright future ahead, I just cannot aford to re-buy back in.

Good luck to all FMG share holders.

i used to buy stocks to on TA buy signals only to find the next day or week they had broken thru my stop,now i buy only stocks that i'm reasonably sure of and buy the dips sell when up made heaps more doing that, try mcr, igo, oxr,there proven producers. better luck next time.porkpie

FMG your thoughts

Has FMG hit it's peak, some opinions on this would be great!

The Directional System ADX indicator seems to indicate it has hit it's peak. Where as the On balance volume and MACD-Histogram seem to suggest the trend is ok. These are indicators I have read are good to use with trending shares.

Would love to hear other peoples thoughts on this one.

Also another thing I noticed the ATR has been around .2 for 5 and 10 days today it dropped .12 so it didn't really reach the ATR, I would take that as a good sign the trend is still ok , is this a good thing to look at though for trending stocks?

Re: FMG your thoughts

andrew_c2o said:

The Directional System ADX indicator seems to indicate it has hit it's peak

Click to expand...

How does it appear to indicate that?

By my interpretation, ADX with +DI and -DI is showing a strong up-trend that is still getting stronger. In fact, none of the few indicators I look at show any weakness at the moment.

Which is not to say that it won't plummet tomorrow anyway

GP

Well i can see back in mid march the ADX hit 64 then the price went to a down trend, now the ADX is at 62, so thats y i'm thinking it has peaked or getting closer to the peak.

Peaked ???, sometimes it's important to look beyond the charts and consider the fundamentals. :millhouse

FMG are currently on a massive expansion plan to become the 3rd largest Iron Ore producer in OZ. They are close to securing equity partners (Chinese) to develop new infrastructure (Road & Port Facilities).

Once infrastructure is in place FMG will have achieved their goal :bowser:

In addition to FMG fast becoming a major Iron Ore player UBS, last week revised there price on Iron Ore to factor in a minimum 10% price increase for 06.

Demand for Iron Ore from emerging super powers, China & India shows no signs of abating and is only getting stronger.

There is plenty of blue sky ahead for FMG - Peaked, I don't think so........

FYI - Recent News Article

Fortescue Metals pins hopes on upgrade
Source: PERTH AAP
Date: 2005-Oct-07 05:28 PM
Iron ore developer Fortescue Metals Group Ltd hopes the latest resource upgrade at its $1.95 billion Pilbara project will silence concerns about the quality and amount of iron ore at the project.

Fortescue has increased the amount of resources in the indicated category by 70 per cent at the Cloud Break and Christmas Creek to 1.4 billion tonnes of iron ore.

Most of the increase came from the Cloud Break deposit, where 572 million tonnes is now considered indicated.

Total resources at the project, including indicated and the lower confidence category inferred, now total 2.4 billion tonnes.

Executive director Graham Rowley said he hoped the new resource statement would silence critics which had doubted the resources at the project.

"We have been criticised a little bit of late with people saying `FMG has only got inferred resources' and we kept saying `we have got good resources'," he said.

"We are now talking about on the record a very large orebody which we have always claimed to have. It is very exciting to affirm our own beliefs in ourselves."

The massive infrastructure and mining project is due for completion in 2007, initially producing 45 million tonnes of ore a year.

The resource upgrade also boosted the high-grade iron ore, which can be directly shipped without any beneficiary processing, by 80 per cent to 578 million tonnes.

Fortescue has planned to initially direct ship this ore for five years but Mr Rowley said he hoped to double that to ten years.

Drilling will continue with further upgrades expected at Christmas Creek and Cloud Break over the next two months.

Another point of contention with critics of the Pilbara project is the offtake agreements the company has with Chinese and Japanese steel mills.

"We still have the same level of contracts and memorandums of intent we have previously reported," Mr Rowley said.

"We are continuing to hold discussions with steel mills."

He said the recent agreement between Hancock Prospecting and Rio Tinto to develop the Hope Downs iron ore project in Western Australia had increased interest in Fortescue's own project.

Hit $7!!

$8.70.......still more left in it?

FMG going from strength to strength

Stop_the_clock said:

FMG going from strength to strength

Click to expand...

this stock is crazy, its not even profitable yet (and wont be it appears for teh next 3 yrs) but it keeps getting higher and higher

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS -0.5 -0.3 -5.1 -7.1
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 --



thx

MS

Plenty of stocks seem to be like this, I sometimes reckon its better to go by the story than to crunch over the numbers.

Its all about the China story and iron ore, need I say anymore

Forgot to mention that I was sold, on the China/Iron Ore deal back in Aug 04. Bought in at 64 cents, it slid down to 58 cents, within a few weeks, I sold out, and now look at it!

Like I said its sometimes the stories that are better than the figures

Stop_the_clock said:

Forgot to mention that I was sold, on the China/Iron Ore deal back in Aug 04. Bought in at 64 cents, it slid down to 58 cents, within a few weeks, I sold out, and now look at it!

Like I said its sometimes the stories that are better than the figures

Click to expand...

Hehe, yeah but i think the bulk of the earnings will come in 2009, 2010 and beyond? Thats what people are betting on i think, maybe they also have contracts in place and alot reserveres to supply in the future

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS -0.5 -0.3 -5.1 -7.1
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 --

thx

MS

Man this stock keep sgetting higher and higher!

http://www.smh.com.au/news/BUSINESS...-equity-raising/2006/07/10/1152383654714.html

Fortescue confirms $360m equity raising
Email Print Normal font Large font July 10, 2006 - 11:44AM

Advertisement
AdvertisementIron ore developer Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has confirmed it is negotiating an equity placement worth more than $US270 million ($A360 million) with Noble Group Ltd.

Fortescue said Noble, a Hong Kong commodities trader, had made an offer for an equity placement of 10 per cent of the fully diluted shares in the company.

The aspiring iron ore miner said the pricing of the offer was between $US270 million ($A360 million) and $US300 million ($A400 million).

Fortescue said it was seeking strategic equity as part of a broader capital raising program and Noble was one of a number of potential partners it was negotiating with.

The deal with Noble would see the establishment of a joint venture marketing company, to be owned 51 per cent by Noble and 49 per cent by Fortescue, which would sell Fortescue's iron ore into China.

The West Australian company also said construction at its project in the state's remote north west remained on schedule and within budget.

The $US200 million facility set up in March had enabled it to start the long lead items required to keep the project on time, the company said.

Fortescue said a comprehensive financing package was expected to be in place within this quarter.

Shares in Fortescue were placed in voluntary suspension on Friday, ahead of the announcement of the equity raising.

They resumed trading after the announcement and at 1050 AEST had jumped $1.40 to $11.00.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/fortescuenoble-deal-expected/2006/07/06/1152175726147.html

thx

MS

Looks Like they are into serious money $2.7B Debt underwriting.

Haven't looked at the details the PDF was 778 pages!

I guess they will be trading again shortly

John

michael_selway said:

Hehe, yeah but i think the bulk of the earnings will come in 2009, 2010 and beyond? Thats what people are betting on i think, maybe they also have contracts in place and alot reserveres to supply in the future

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS -0.5 -0.3 -5.1 -7.1
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 --

thx

MS

Click to expand...

Omg 2009, earnings start to in pack in fast!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -1.0 -42.5 20.3 137.2
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 --

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 -42.5 -- --
Year Ending 30-06-08 20.3 49.7 --

thx

MS