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FLX - Felix Resources

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Each day this stock seems to put on 2-4%.

Very happy to have gotten in during the relatively recent fall to around the 1.60 mark.
 
haemitite said:
Each day this stock seems to put on 2-4%.

Very happy to have gotten in during the relatively recent fall to around the 1.60 mark.
Click to expand...

Felix are still going up today and traded at $3.61 this morning. No big buyers in the market, so far, as trading is light most days.
 
The light trading in Felix Resources has been something that has continued for some months now, having risen steadily throughout that time; There is a pause for thought as to the reasons why. Having fallen back from $3.55 to $3.37 yesterday, FLX finished down 1 cent at $3.54.
 
Sold about 15% of my holding in Felix as the run-up this year has been far more than I expected. A lot is on the Moolarben mine, 100% owned by FLX, that should come good with the mining sector bouyant.
 
Felix have moved up 13 cents today and stand at $3.73 in light trading - up 142% from their 2006 low. At this price the market cap. stands close to $700 million and makes the stocks entry into the ASX200 all the more certain.
 
Felix have risen sharply this morning, by 24 cents, to $3.95. An announcement is hoped for in reference to a partner for the Moolarben Project in NSW., close to Xstrata and Peabody mines. The stock now stands at an all-time high from the point of the merger with RSM in 2003 - up over 900% from the 2003 low.
 


Hi Noirua !
You've followed this share since 'magna carta' was drawn up .....I have watched MCC slide( with the ceo go absent on leave due to the CMC investigation) and FLX reverse this MCC decline .Do you feel still bullish even at $3.92 today ............trying to quantify if I should stick with MCC or jump on board the FLX freight train.
 
3 veiws of a secret said:
Trading halt -looks like the train left me on the platform!
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I've been on this train since 1983. Bought and sold but always retaining some stock. I was going to sell some more stock at the start of trading on Tuesday, and only time will tell if I'm lucky or unlucky in failing to get off the train at the point you failed to get on it.

Trading Halt is most likely to do with the sale of an interest in the companies Moolarben Project. Both Peabody and Xstrata have been mentioned as having an interest in buying into Moolarben, as they have other coal interests nearby in NSW.

I have been watching MCC closely as I held the stock up to early last year. They used to trade at twice the price of FLX, cost factors involved here and maybe we should be watching where the train stops next; Whether we should jump on board or not is a personal decision.
 
Felix have fallen back to $3.63 after disappointment over the announcement that they are to sell 49% of Yarrabee for $68 million. This money to be used in developing Moolarben.

It was about Moolarben that shareholders hoped was going to be the announcement. A 49% stake in this would have been worth $200 to $300 million ( IMHO ) and could have led to FLX being involved in a buy-back of its own stock and a cash return to shareholders.
 
Technically, pretty much on target from a Fib point of view.

I positioned the Fib lines based on the centre consolidation section a couple of weeks or so ago, and here we are now almost exactly on the 0% line.

Of course it could continue shooting up again tomorrow...

GP
 

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Quite a lot of speculators in this stock now and if trading remains light it could trickle away South. On the other hand the Moolarben Project is the big one with potential to produce 6 times as much coal per annum than Yarrabee and the open-cut mine is a very low cost producer. Mine life at 10 mtpa is over 30 years and is 150% extra production for Felix on 2007 forecasts.
 
The valuation of assets owned by Felix Resources is reasonably easy to calculate. The number of shares in issue is 180.25 million and market cap at $3.60 is $649 million.

1). The Yarabbee sale of 49% is worth the $68 million being paid to Felix and remainder owned by Felix is worth $70.7 million.

2) Ashton mine: 20% sold for $30.45 million and the remaining 60% is worth $91.45 million.

3) Minerva and Athena: 15% sold for $33 million and remainng 55% worth $121 million.

4) Owns 1 million shares in Ausmelt worth $1.05 million and 21.5% of ADC which is not valued.

5) Phillipson South Australia tenements sold and a valuation for 5 billion tonnes of steaming coal depends on a final agreement on cash and royalties.

6) Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob iron ore tenements sold for $750,000 plus royalties. Expected to move quickly to 2 mtpa production. Felix also receive 10% equity in Southern Iron, valued at $450,000 after merger with Western Plains Gold.

7) Indonesian Gold Assets subject to future royalties to be paid to Felix.

8) Harry Brandt which is being developed.

9) Ballymoney Lignite Tenement which has no value at present.

10) Moolarben Mine that holds 309 million tonnes and is being developed and is 100% owned by Felix. The valuation MAY be in the region of $400 to $500 million.
 
I have now reduced my original holding in Felix Resources by 50% as the market trys to find a new level. Shareholders seem to have been wrong footed by the sale of 49% of Yarrabee for $68 million, in other words it was completely unexpected.

Have stayed in FLX as I believe an announcement on a sale of part of the Moolarben Project will be agreed in time.
 


Just to correct and add a few detail:

10) Moolarben Mine has 309.3 million tonnes measured and indicated resource in reference to the Open-Cut mine plus 87.5 million tonnes measured and indicated for the underground mine. The mine has an estimated 25 year life.

8) Harry Brandt open-cut mine has a 42.8 million tonnes inferred resource.

1) Yarrabee has an estimated 6.5 year mine life at 30/6/2006.

Felix held $79,365,879 cash and cash equivalents at 30/6/2006.
 
Just as a matter of interest, more a bit of fun, and taking into account posts 114 and 116; It is interesting to work out what type of bid for Felix Resources could be successful - of course there may really be no company interested at all.

Using my own workings: which may be wrong, innacurate or my own poor guesses, the assets and cash of Felix are worth between $900 and $1,100 million. At a stock price of $3.63, and allowing for options held by Directors, the market capitalization is $670 to $680 million.

The value of Yarrabee, Minerva and Athena, and Ashton mines, are based on sale prices of parts of the assets, on the date of sale. Cash etc., is taken from the Annual Report of Felix Resources 2006, page 35, plus $68 million from sale of 49% of Yarrabee in early November, funds are yet to be received. Harry Brandt has a guessed value at $40 to $60 million. Moolarben has a guessed value of between $400 and $600 million. The other assets are given a nominal value of $20 million, which is a complete guess.
 

The following analysts report by Wilson HTM, now about 4 month old, gives the asset value of Felix Resources at $1,292.6 million, with the value of Moolarben close to $800 million, as of year ending 30/6/2006. See page 6 of the report: http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060724_Wilson_HTM_report.pdf
 
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