Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

FLX - Felix Resources

To the CEO, Mr Brian Flannery.

Dear Brian,
I understand that there will be a franked 50 Cent dividend to be paid at the end of October.
Is this in addition to the Final Dividend declared before the offer from Yanzhou was received?
Clearly it should be, since the Final Dividend has nothing to do with the offer. Many have pointed to this confusion.

Deloitte's Report fails to clarify this, and makes it worse by talking of further dividends [plural] payable later, probably in December.

It was my understanding that there would be a further dividend payable in December provided the deal was concluded.

I am sure most independent shareholders wish to see other bids materialising, not for reasons of greed, but because mining analysts are quite clear in their opinion.The concensus is that the right value is about AUD24 per share.

Strange that. A discrepancy of 33% seems beyond the purported claim of "Fair".
It was interesting to note that as soon as the offer was announced, Yanzhou's share price went up considerably whilst Felix's went down,

The Market was confirming who has the better of the deal, so far. It was stated that the impact on Yanzhou's earnings in 2 years' time could be as much as 37%.

If Felix could buy an asset which would enhance earnings by that much in as little as 2 years, I am sure you would grab it with both hands.Therein lies the test of "fair value".

It would seem that Deloitte, advising Felix [and therefore its Shareholders], ignored this point.
I note that they are protected from any claims of professional shortcomings in respect of the Shareholders' interests.

Who ever heard of a bidding Company offering its final bid with its first opening salvo ? This tells me they will pay more if they have to, which will make a mockery of Deloitte's "fair valuation". I imagine Yanzhou is relying heavily on the Directors' recommended acceptance, to pull it off at the first shot?

Deloitte also tries to justify the valuation by pointing out that there have been no counter offers. It is self-evident that none will emerge until the FIRB has cleared, or thrown out the Yanzhou offer. Therefore I maintain this could mislead Shareholders into the belief that this is evidence the offer fully values our Company.

If the FIRB should decide a foreign bid is not in Australia's interest, this precludes many other Parties, and narrows the field considerably. But no Australian Company would be so foolish as to mount a counter bid, until the minefield is cleared.

Trying to pull the wool in this manner shows little respect for our Shareholders' intelligence to which Deloitte is appealing, and incidentally for which we, the Shareholders are paying !!

Of course Deloitte had to decide Yanzhou's was a fair offer, because "he who pays the piper calls the tune".This was therefore a foregone conclusion.

Who ever heard of an " Independent Expert" paid by the Company being bid for, deciding a bid was too low, and certainly one has never concluded an offer was too high !!

To say the bid was too low when the Directors have already recommended it, would make the Directors appear somewhat incompetent, so we can conclude that the Fee of $200,000 was wasted, even if it was mandatory to go through this charade.

The Directors recommended the bid as "fair" before their "Independent Expert" had given its opinion !! Is this meant to imply transparent market democracy?

To suggest any "Independent Expert" is independent in this context, is risible.

The ASX and or the FIRB should establish a panel of Mining Experts to deal with situations like this, and whoever is chosen, it should be an independent choice, made by neither Party involved in the Bid. The costs should be borne equally by both Parties.This would make it genuinely independent and not the fait accompli which has been put to Shareholders today.

The argument that you, the Directors have endorsed the offer and therefore adds weight to it being a fair bid, could be riddled with holes.

Your motivations to accept, may be very different from the ordinary Shareholder, who is looking for full value for his/her investment, if it is to be snatched away and replaced with cash, which will mean tax has to be paid as well.

For this reason, many would prefer a 100% share offer from BHP.

The Directors [and any supporting major shareholders] are already fabulously wealthy, and as far as I know no details of the ongoing Terms of Service have been released, if the offer is successful. Therefore, there could be many reasons for recommending acceptance beyond the share valuation. I am not saying there are other considerations, merely it is a possibility with any takeover situation.

For the Directors, the offer is not just limited to the value of the Share offer, hence you have a different agenda from the Shareholders.

I am sure everything you have done is by the letter of the law as laid down by the ASX, and any other Regulatory Bodies.

I believe wholeheartedly that you have earned the wealth you have created, and the benefits which have therefore accrued to your Shareholders. You have grown Felix into a Company of which we are all very proud , which makes it all the more surprising that you should recommend the offer, at a price so far below that suggested by the Professional Mining Commentators.

Let me put a scenario to you.
What would be your response to the bid if you and all the Directors were in their 30s, with only limited personal Shareholdings and few other assets?

My bet is that you would all be saying "This bid is entirely inadequate. Please read our summary of the potential of the Company in the coming years, as set out in the Annual Report, and you will understand why we must be allowed to grow the Company and Shareholder value, as we have proved we can do to date. The best is yet to come !!

That is what Yanzhou believes !!

Sincerely,
"Quillan"
 
Hi Quillan, A long letter that covers a lot of the points made here and on other websites.
Unfortunately the Felix Board of Directors are bound to recommend the offer by Yanzhou Coal. Also, under a binding agreement they are not allowed to say anything deemed or otherwise contrary to the agreement. Therefore Mr Flannery's reply, if you get one, has to be supportive of Yanzhou's bid in all respects as agreed between both parties.

Other major and large shareholders are all making no comment on the bid situation. The only comment made by the Company Secretary, Mr Craig Smith, in a reply to a shareholder ended, "On the assumption that the deal goes through without any problems ...".

I have contacted three former directors of the company and one manager. Two preferred not to make any comment and though a third replied at length, ended by saying "I would prefer you not to put any of this info on any Bulletin Board". The fourth has moved on as he is no longer interested but was pleased to see certain 'rogues' had left the company.
I will post information on possible class A legal matters due to come to court concerning S.A.S.E. and a steel company. Once I've checked it carefully as legal jargon is a bit difficult at times.

Good luck on your letters to Felix - noi
 
Felix stock goes xd on Friday and the spinoff of SAC. The bid is then worth a 50c extra dividend and $16.95 sometime in the future - $17.45 in all.

Yanzhou have risen sharply since last weekend (8%) and Felix Resources stock seems to have traded in a narrow band for quite awhile.
Coal futures going out to 2014 have lifted strongly with the gradual improvement in the 3 month delivery price out of Newcastle.

Felix should hopefully move out of this tight trading band and after going xd may push on through $18.00 a share. The mining sector has been more strong across the pond of late and hopefully Felix will catchup and put pressure on the Yanzhou bid price.
Another reason for an improvement is that Deloitte used a US$70 per tonne price in giving their fair value for Felix, and that price has been exceeded already.

Directors Messrs Flannery, Mende, and Duncan seem to have bought into a quite low price for this bid for Felix. Some earlier estimates were around $20.50 and hopefully we will get to this price eventually.
 
Several reports show that Yanzhou Coal, if they are successful in taking over Felix Resources, will re-list the company including Austar Coal Mine in a few years time.
Due to this, it now becomes an option not to accept the bid, especially for those with capital gains tax issues. Best to hold on for a few years as Felix Resources, in my view, is worth far more than the present cash offer of $16.95.
 
Several reports show that Yanzhou Coal, if they are successful in taking over Felix Resources, will re-list the company including Austar Coal Mine in a few years time.
Due to this, it now becomes an option not to accept the bid, especially for those with capital gains tax issues. Best to hold on for a few years as Felix Resources, in my view, is worth far more than the present cash offer of $16.95.

This requires some clarification. Are you suggesting, Noirua, that a share alternative may now be offered, into which Austar may be injected later?
Presumably, if shares are offered in a newly created Australian quoted Company, 1-1 for shares held in Felix, then the Directors who have accepted the cash bid would then be released from their commitment, since the Terms had been altered?
Suppose 51% or more of the Shareholders elect for shares in the new Company?
Suppose the Directors have second thoughts about accepting $17.45 and opt for new shares instead?
The takeover would have failed, as the status quo would remain, with Yanzhou only holding the shares surrendered by the few accepting the cash offer?
What would then be the position of the extra 50 cent dividend payable upon the successfull conclusion?
Am I missing something?
Could you tell us Noirua where these suggestions are coming from? I would like to copy my questions here to them for their consideration.
 
Coal futures going out to 2014 have lifted strongly with the gradual improvement in the 3 month delivery price out of Newcastle.

Hi Noirua, whats the 2014 futures price atm?

Also where do you get coal futures details from?

Thanks again

MS
 
Several reports show that Yanzhou Coal, if they are successful in taking over Felix Resources, will re-list the company including Austar Coal Mine in a few years time.
Due to this, it now becomes an option not to accept the bid, especially for those with capital gains tax issues. Best to hold on for a few years as Felix Resources, in my view, is worth far more than the present cash offer of $16.95.

This requires some clarification. Are you suggesting, Noirua, that a share alternative may now be offered, into which Austar may be injected later?
Presumably, if shares are offered in a newly created Australian quoted Company, 1-1 for shares held in Felix, then the Directors who have accepted the cash bid would then be released from their commitment, since the Terms had been altered?
Suppose 51% or more of the Shareholders elect for shares in the new Company?
Suppose the Directors have second thoughts about accepting $17.45 and opt for new shares instead?
The takeover would have failed, as the status quo would remain, with Yanzhou only holding the shares surrendered by the few accepting the cash offer?
What would then be the position of the extra 50 cent dividend payable upon the successfull conclusion?
Am I missing something?
Could you tell us Noirua where these suggestions are coming from? I would like to copy my questions here to them for their consideration.

Hi Quillan et al, This link from Bloomberg gives details: "Yanzhou May Hold Australian IPO After Felix Takeover": http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7di1XKxneW8

There are various other links giving details including from Hong Kong and China. Best you use your search engines for that.

Yanzhou Coal have said that they are making an off market bid for all of Felix Resources stock, and Felix Resources would be de-listed from the ASX.

However, Yanzhou require 90% of Felix Resources to be able to buyout the remaining shareholders. If they get 89.9% or less, for instance, would they be content with that? Would the FLX quote continue?

At the moment I intend to reject the offer. Though, only myself and about 32 others are thinking of doing the same, and we only speak for about 380,000 shares (0.1934%) - trusting people haven't exaggerated their holdings.
So it's all in the hands of AMCI (19.2%) and former directors, CFO and two managers (23.2%) - 30.3% are current directors accepting Yanzhou's offer.
 
Hi Noirua, whats the 2014 futures price atm?

Also where do you get coal futures details from?

Thanks again MS

Hi ms, This is the information on obtaining futures etc., pricing of coal. It comes from a poster elsewhere dempsey2 and this poster usually deals with this. May come up "error" if not a member.

https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/ReportCentre.shtml?reportId=10

Site may not link automatically, unless contracted. So cut and paste. If not "monthly, quarters, calenders", "submit"

The ASX are increasingly gearing up on coal futures (Sydney Futures Ltd., FOB Newcastle), and you can also access at the New York Mercantile Exchange and Nymex.
 
Futures for gc Newcastle Futures for delivery quarters 1, 2, 3 and 4 was US$103.25 per metric tonne
For thermal coal value benchmark.

Alternative access to details (needs a bit of clicking around): https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml
Then click on "market data" - "ice live" - "settlements/ EOD"
Then click around a bit and you will get there.

The page may reject being a favourite when you get there. You will know you're there when the link in the previous post is in the link at the top.
 
Futures for gc Newcastle Futures for delivery quarters 1, 2, 3 and 4 was US$103.25 per metric tonne
For thermal coal value benchmark.

Alternative access to details (needs a bit of clicking around): https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml
Then click on "market data" - "ice live" - "settlements/ EOD"
Then click around a bit and you will get there.

The page may reject being a favourite when you get there. You will know you're there when the link in the previous post is in the link at the top.

Thanks looks good

ICE Coal Futures Daily Settlement Prices for Thursday, 08 October 2009
ICE Rotterdam ICE Richards Bay ICE globalCOAL NEWC ®
Oct'09 $72.45 $63.35 $71.95
Nov'09 $73.10 $66.15 $73.05
Q4'09 $73.03 $65.40 $72.93
Q1'10 $77.02 $70.10 $76.02
Q2'10 $81.37 $72.78 $77.83
Q3'10 $85.72 $76.30 $79.90
2010 $83.40 $74.77 $78.97
2011 $98.48 $89.39 $89.56
2012 $107.65 $97.71 $95.96
2013 $114.31 $105.06 $100.72


Source: ICE Futures Europe
 
Hi Quillan et al, This link from Bloomberg gives details: "Yanzhou May Hold Australian IPO After Felix Takeover": http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7di1XKxneW8

There are various other links giving details including from Hong Kong and China. Best you use your search engines for that.

Yanzhou Coal have said that they are making an off market bid for all of Felix Resources stock, and Felix Resources would be de-listed from the ASX.

However, Yanzhou require 90% of Felix Resources to be able to buyout the remaining shareholders. If they get 89.9% or less, for instance, would they be content with that? Would the FLX quote continue?

At the moment I intend to reject the offer. Though, only myself and about 32 others are thinking of doing the same, and we only speak for about 380,000 shares (0.1934%) - trusting people haven't exaggerated their holdings.
So it's all in the hands of AMCI (19.2%) and former directors, CFO and two managers (23.2%) - 30.3% are current directors accepting Yanzhou's offer.

Hi Noirua, you can add my 55,000 shares to the rejection pile, and hope that others will declare on this site.Yes, it is my genuine holding. Perhaps some publicity somewhere would stimulate others to add their holdings to your group?. Could we not form an informal group and keep in touch? How about contacting the largest shareholders up to say 5%?
It could be a useful weapon when a counter bid arrives--hopefully !!
How did this group of 33 form?
 
Hi Noirua, you can add my 55,000 shares to the rejection pile, and hope that others will declare on this site.Yes, it is my genuine holding. Perhaps some publicity somewhere would stimulate others to add their holdings to your group?. Could we not form an informal group and keep in touch? How about contacting the largest shareholders up to say 5%?
It could be a useful weapon when a counter bid arrives--hopefully !!
How did this group of 33 form?

I've been a shareholder for over 26 years and over 10 years on the internet, and some of the 32 are those I met at meetings. Despite building up my holding over many years, I prefer to not state how many shares I have as there is no way of proving it. Most shares were purchased from many rights issues, and the rest in 1999 and 2003, and some sold in 1997 in the Bre-X fueled run up.

The vote is in the hands of the major holders, and excluding AMCI (19.12%), they are all former White Energy shareholders (48.2%) and may well all act together and accept Yanzhou's bid.
Us small holders do not matter, though we can let our feelings be known. Let's face it though, if a counter bid arrives then all is well, if not, basically we have no say in the matter.

AS to the four major holders, who are former directors and manager of Felix, they are not making any comment until they receive the formal offer documents.
 
Thanks looks good

ICE Coal Futures Daily Settlement Prices for Thursday, 08 October 2009
ICE Rotterdam ICE Richards Bay ICE globalCOAL NEWC ®
Oct'09 $72.45 $63.35 $71.95
Nov'09 $73.10 $66.15 $73.05
Q4'09 $73.03 $65.40 $72.93
Q1'10 $77.02 $70.10 $76.02
Q2'10 $81.37 $72.78 $77.83
Q3'10 $85.72 $76.30 $79.90
2010 $83.40 $74.77 $78.97
2011 $98.48 $89.39 $89.56
2012 $107.65 $97.71 $95.96
2013 $114.31 $105.06 $100.72


Source: ICE Futures Europe

Yes indeed m_s, and it looks as if we'll see even higher prices in the coming weeks and hopefully a rise in the 2009 thermal price. It looks as if Rotterdam and Richards Bay are leading the way up.
Maybe we'll see these higher prices impact on the Felix Resources share price at $16.75xd/xb (bid by Yanzhou worth $17.45).

So far the market hasn't seen the Felix stock price worth more than Yanzhou's bid. Crossing my fingers that that is about to change.
 
Yanzhou Coal have again re-submitted their application to takeover Felix Resources as the FIRB announces no decision today. It may take up to 30 more days for a decision to be reached.
 
Felix Resources remains for sale with Xstrata back in the running after dropping the Anglo American merger proposal, for the time being.

More than a year has passed since MD Mr Brian Flannery put Felix up for sale. Shareholders remain mystified as to why they want to sell and why they caved in and recommended the $16.95 cash from Yanzhou?????????????

On the shelf still are Felix resources with the for sale sign covered up, and the shareholders, bored with events, may yet vote this Yanzhou bid down.
 
Following my Post #1001 and with particular reference to my last paragraph. I feel we are being sold down the river. Just when there is reckoned to be a large increase in the $ value of all natural resources, we are selling them cheap to the Chinese.
Brian Flannery would never entertain such stupidity if he was not so rich. Therefore I maintain the judgement of the Board in recomending this bid is seriously flawed, and based solely on the personal considerations of the interests of the Directors.
This extract from Money and Markets, an American Newsletter, from this weekend's edition, illustrates how serious the dollar problem is.:
I can thoroughly recomment the financial wisdom dispalyed in this publication. Martin Weiss is highly thought of in Washington.
===========================================================

"Make no mistake about it ”” the world's monetary system is on the verge of dramatically changing. And the chief reason behind it all is ...

Washington's Tower of Debts

The total amount of U.S. government debts and obligations is far greater than what most people realize.

Uncle Sam is saddled with ...

* An officially recognized national debt of $11.8 trillion, which will likely exceed $12 trillion sometime this month.

* Unfunded national obligations of $104 trillion!

* Another $9 trillion in cumulative deficits over the next ten years.

* Plus another trillion dollars for health care reform, no matter what bill finally makes it through Congress.

Grand total: $125.8 TRILLION of public debts!

All told, that means that each and every household in America is now indirectly responsible for more than 1 MILLION DOLLARS in government debts and obligations. And that assumes no new government spending, no new social programs, no new wars, no new economic disasters or bailouts. Worse, it assumes no new deficits in the meantime!

Put another way, even if the government could somehow pay off that debt at the rate of $100 million PER DAY, it would take 3,446 years before the total government debts and obligations are paid off.

Even if Washington were to pay off $1 billion per day, it would still take nearly 345 years to pay off those debts!

Patently unsustainable debts? Yes! Patently unpayable? You bet it is!

Of course, Washington will never default outright on its obligations. But it doesn't have to. By devaluing the dollar, Washington can effectively pay off its debts with a cheaper currency.

This is why the dollar is falling ... and why savvy investors all over the world are beginning to lose confidence in Washington and our currency ... and why it's all leading to a massive renewed bull market in natural resources, especially gold.

Make no mistake about it: By doing nothing, your finances become a victim of a falling dollar ”” a currency whose purchasing power has already lost more than 36 percent of its value in the last decade ... will lose a lot more purchasing power in the months ahead ... and eventually lose its status as the world's reserve currency, ultimately replaced by a new world currency.

Bottom line:

If you're appalled as our government's deficits explode ”” up a staggering 770 percent since 2007 alone ”” and outraged that our leaders are still finding ways to spend even more ...

If you're horrified that Washington has more than doubled the national debt to nearly $12 trillion since 2000 ”” and sickened by the likelihood that the Obama administration will double it again ...

If you're terrified that the $104 TRILLION our government now owes us through Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits programs can NEVER be paid ...

If you're losing sleep over how this great debt default will impact your savings, investments and retirement ...

It's time to take action now!
Larry Edelson
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[I have given the credits as required, to reproduce this copy.]

About Money and Markets

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Hi Quillan et al, My biggest problems at the moment are a dodgy curtain rail that is threatening to fall down and a very wobbly shelf. Neither put up by me.

On Americas problems, as your article says, lots and lots of debts. However, like companies, they also have lots and lots of assets and many of these are in other countries. China has several trillion US dollars and are spending a lot of these in Asia and the Far East.
Also, many Americans work abroad and send back foreign currencies.

So basically, don't worry about it. Stay 70% to 80% in cash, preferably several different currencies, and you can smile.

Anyway, that's all a bit off topic really. I am battling away against this Yanzhou bid for Felix and despite being a very small minnow, hope to hold things up a bit. A few larger fish (not that big though) seem to be siding with the minnows - watch events in the coming weeks.

Good fortune my friends, and keep smiling.
 
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