Hi Reefer, You'r right, Felix Resources have shot up $1.28 to $13.74 - through their 2,000 high of $13.50. I don't think Felix supply any coal to China and interest is more likely from South Korea or Japan.11.07am and about to say goodbye to the $12 range. Volumes have been increasing over the last month or so, think something is in the wind. Possibly Chinese interests securing future supplies, Xstrat having a dip, who knows.
No change in significant holding notices so perhaps the buying is across the board. Tax department is going to love this when we eventually sell.
Just taken a look at the trades and nothing much going on at all except fro bot trading and broker housekeeping. Price leapt from $14.00 to $15.03 in a microsecond and a minute later dropped from $14.99 to $13.75 in a microsecond. Perhaps the ASX needs to look at more than speeding tickets.
Reefer,
No need for the price commentary. People who are interested can easily see the price on their screens without an update on the forum every half hour
thanks
Prawn
Felix Resources, like others in the coal sector, will see a massive increase in profits due to the rise in benchmark thermal (6,322(GAR), Kilocalories per tonne, benchmark) to US$125 per tonne.An interesting week ahead for coal miners as BHP complete their latest round of agreements with Japan and South Korea for coal prices from April onwards. Reports are that proposed prices are to be accepted.
Every US$ on the coal price, above US$55.40 benchmark thermal, adds about US$5 million to Felix Resources profits at 5mtpa. Coal sales should rise to 13mtpa in about 4 years time.
Felix Resources, like others in the coal sector, will see a massive increase in profits due to the rise in benchmark thermal (6,322(GAR), Kilocalories per tonne, benchmark) to US$125 per tonne.
In a full year, and allowing for inflation costs, Felix could see a rise of A$350 million in before tax profits, at 5mtpa sales.
If, and it is a big IF, prices stay at these high levels, then with production at 13mtpa and attributable to Felix, in 2011, could raise profits substantially further with the low cost Moolarben mine. There are also other mines to come onstream.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUST1152120080407
I haven't posted figures on the number of shares diluted as I cannot get it properly comfirmed. I see you have your ear to the ground!Hi Noirua, do u know the no. of shares FLX have diluted currently
Its really going to be interesting whatthe enxt few years will bring for these coal miners etc
The following link shows that Vale (Cia. Vale do Rio Doce) and Xstrata, are interested in obtaining coal assets and interests in the coal sector: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCePpIoFdHL8Xstrata are the World's largest exporters of thermal coal and they have recently fought off a bid by the Brazilian Mining Giant, Vale.
There may be thoughts, though there are no rumours anywhere I can see, that Vale could become interested in Felix Resources.
As Felix Resources heads for the $15.00 mark, 39 fold increase on the 2003 low, its getting increasingly difficult to value this stock.
It means looking towards 2010/11 or even out to 2012/14, to see what eventual production will bring. 13mtpa is forecast for 2010/11 with further mines adding to production by 2012/14.
Is there a takeover factor in the share price? If there is, it means someone thinks the major shareholders, they have nearly 70% of Felix, will accept a bid. That bid would have to be very high indeed and value Felix Resources at full future value. Is there any company willing to go for it?
Yes m_s, there is a gamble on future coal prices. Coal production will increase as well as Australia's Eastern Port capacity.Hi Noirua, yes production forecasts in play here, but dont forget price forecasts here. Its currently at $130 a tonne, but in those future years is it possible for these prices to double or even triple or maybe cool off?
So yes big difference this can have on EPS etc
Thanks
MS
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