FLX - Felix Resources

[Reefer]

Sorry I posted a few minutes too early. Has smashed it's way up to $13.47.
Few available on the Sell side. Handy gain for you Noirua on the $5.50 you paid two months back. This has been a massive increase.

 

[noirua]

11.07am and about to say goodbye to the $12 range. Volumes have been increasing over the last month or so, think something is in the wind. Possibly Chinese interests securing future supplies, Xstrat having a dip, who knows.
No change in significant holding notices so perhaps the buying is across the board. Tax department is going to love this when we eventually sell.

Hi Reefer, You'r right, Felix Resources have shot up $1.28 to $13.74 - through their 2,000 high of $13.50. I don't think Felix supply any coal to China and interest is more likely from South Korea or Japan.

As you infer, something unusal is happening here. All news is known and if a bid comes it needs the agreement of the major shareholders, who have 71% of the stock. Some may think this would mean only a very high bid would be successful.

 

[Reefer]

Punched through $15 and must be a speeding ticket coming up. The tightness of this stock is frustrating buyers. However on past intraday performances, may well close at $12. A very volatile stock.

 

[Reefer]

Just taken a look at the trades and nothing much going on at all except fro bot trading and broker housekeeping. Price leapt from $14.00 to $15.03 in a microsecond and a minute later dropped from $14.99 to $13.75 in a microsecond. Perhaps the ASX needs to look at more than speeding tickets.

 

[michael_selway]

Just taken a look at the trades and nothing much going on at all except fro bot trading and broker housekeeping. Price leapt from $14.00 to $15.03 in a microsecond and a minute later dropped from $14.99 to $13.75 in a microsecond. Perhaps the ASX needs to look at more than speeding tickets.

HI wow $15 for no apparent reason

NHC has been well this past week it appears past $3!!!

Thanks

MS

 

[prawn_86]

Reefer,

No need for the price commentary. People who are interested can easily see the price on their screens without an update on the forum every half hour

thanks

Prawn

 

[AussiePaul72]

Reefer,

No need for the price commentary. People who are interested can easily see the price on their screens without an update on the forum every half hour

thanks

Prawn

Prawn, I hardly think todays posts were a commentary on price every half hour....thats a silly comment and doesn't encourage people to post interesting info on the forum. Give these guys a break please.
I found the posts interesting and the point of the posts was not to update ASFer's on current price but more to post on the run in SP and also volatility in SP from a tightly held stock.

 

[noirua]

Xstrata are the World's largest exporters of thermal coal and they have recently fought off a bid by the Brazilian Mining Giant, Vale.
There may be thoughts, though there are no rumours anywhere I can see, that Vale could become interested in Felix Resources.
Vale would be aware of previous interest by Xstrata in Felix's Moolarben Project and that Xstrata, through their 90% owned subsiduary Ulan Coal, are tied up in the NSW Appeal Courts over their land that covers 20% of Moolarben, during April and May.
Felix Resources have thermal and semi-soft coal interests in N.S.W. and Queensland. Present attributable production is about 5mtpa and will rise eventually to 13mtpa when Moolarben reaches full production. The Athena future mine has similar reserves to Moolarben and may be developed about 5 years down the line. The Harry Brandt anthracite mine is likely to be brought to production in about 4 years. Felix also have sub-bitumous coal reserves of 5 billion tonnes inferred, in South Australia.

 

[countryboy]

sorry prawn..this type of price commentry has made me alot of money.I dont have the time to watch all these screens so on downtime log into a range of sights to check out whats moving etc including weekends

I know this sounds outrageous but sometimes i only look at the HC front page to see how many people have posted a message on a particular thread and move straight onto my stockbroker

we are not all into long term holds with heaps of info
as one poster says "the trend is your friend"

cheers

 

[noirua]

An interesting week ahead for coal miners as BHP complete their latest round of agreements with Japan and South Korea for coal prices from April onwards. Reports are that proposed prices are to be accepted.
Every US$ on the coal price, above US$55.40 benchmark thermal, adds about US$5 million to Felix Resources profits at 5mtpa. Coal sales should rise to 13mtpa in about 4 years time.

 

[noirua]

An interesting week ahead for coal miners as BHP complete their latest round of agreements with Japan and South Korea for coal prices from April onwards. Reports are that proposed prices are to be accepted.
Every US$ on the coal price, above US$55.40 benchmark thermal, adds about US$5 million to Felix Resources profits at 5mtpa. Coal sales should rise to 13mtpa in about 4 years time.

Felix Resources, like others in the coal sector, will see a massive increase in profits due to the rise in benchmark thermal (6,322(GAR), Kilocalories per tonne, benchmark) to US$125 per tonne.
In a full year, and allowing for inflation costs, Felix could see a rise of A$350 million in before tax profits, at 5mtpa sales.
If, and it is a big IF, prices stay at these high levels, then with production at 13mtpa and attributable to Felix, in 2011, could raise profits substantially further with the low cost Moolarben mine. There are also other mines to come onstream.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUST1152120080407

 

[michael_selway]

Felix Resources, like others in the coal sector, will see a massive increase in profits due to the rise in benchmark thermal (6,322(GAR), Kilocalories per tonne, benchmark) to US$125 per tonne.
In a full year, and allowing for inflation costs, Felix could see a rise of A$350 million in before tax profits, at 5mtpa sales.
If, and it is a big IF, prices stay at these high levels, then with production at 13mtpa and attributable to Felix, in 2011, could raise profits substantially further with the low cost Moolarben mine. There are also other mines to come onstream.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUST1152120080407

Hi Noirua, do u know the no. of shares FLX have diluted currently?

thx

MS

Its really going to be interesting whatthe enxt few years will bring for these coal miners etc

 

[noirua]

Hi Noirua, do u know the no. of shares FLX have diluted currently
Its really going to be interesting whatthe enxt few years will bring for these coal miners etc

I haven't posted figures on the number of shares diluted as I cannot get it properly comfirmed. I see you have your ear to the ground!
Fibora Limited (associated with the company CFO) have sold 4.5 million shares and Covelane 145,000 shares. I believe there was a further liquidation of 3 million shares at $10.85 and $10.25, and perhaps as many as 2 million other shares.
I haven't seen any ASX announcements and the above should be taken as unconfirmed. Whether this was deliberately done to satisfy the ASX so Felix got an ASX200 listing, I do not know.

 

[noirua]

Xstrata are the World's largest exporters of thermal coal and they have recently fought off a bid by the Brazilian Mining Giant, Vale.
There may be thoughts, though there are no rumours anywhere I can see, that Vale could become interested in Felix Resources.

The following link shows that Vale (Cia. Vale do Rio Doce) and Xstrata, are interested in obtaining coal assets and interests in the coal sector: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCePpIoFdHL8

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources trade at a little under $12.00 and await the third quarter report that will show the extent of coal sales, in about 10 days time. There were a few shipping of higher price coal out of Ashton in this period and a big uplift in sales of Minerva Coal, out of Gladstone, at higher prices. Most Felix coal will lock into Thermal coal benchmark prices at around US$125 per tonne, from this April.

 

[noirua]

Felix are continuing to explore the Phillipson Tenement in South Australia at EL3386 for minerals and establishment of sub-bitumous coals already found in the area. (EL2717, RL100 and RL104 are under an option agreement with NRG Flinders).

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources stock price has reached $13.79, up 59 cents on Wednesday. This is on the back of the SMH article that confirmed Macarthur Coal are in talks with Xstrata and a major holder has been in earlier talks concerning the sale of their stake: http://business.smh.com.au/ill-sell-but-only-for-a-premium/20080421-27mz.html

Felix await their 3rd Quarter Report, due out by the end of April. The NSW Court Appeal Case by Ulan Mining is scheduled to be heard on 28th/29th April 2008.

 

[noirua]

As Felix Resources heads for the $15.00 mark, 39 fold increase on the 2003 low, its getting increasingly difficult to value this stock.
It means looking towards 2010/11 or even out to 2012/14, to see what eventual production will bring. 13mtpa is forecast for 2010/11 with further mines adding to production by 2012/14.
Is there a takeover factor in the share price? If there is, it means someone thinks the major shareholders, they have nearly 70% of Felix, will accept a bid. That bid would have to be very high indeed and value Felix Resources at full future value. Is there any company willing to go for it?

 

[michael_selway]

As Felix Resources heads for the $15.00 mark, 39 fold increase on the 2003 low, its getting increasingly difficult to value this stock.
It means looking towards 2010/11 or even out to 2012/14, to see what eventual production will bring. 13mtpa is forecast for 2010/11 with further mines adding to production by 2012/14.
Is there a takeover factor in the share price? If there is, it means someone thinks the major shareholders, they have nearly 70% of Felix, will accept a bid. That bid would have to be very high indeed and value Felix Resources at full future value. Is there any company willing to go for it?

Hi Noirua, yes production forecasts in play here, but dont forget price forecasts here. Its currently at $130 a tonne, but in those future years is it possible for these prices to double or even triple or maybe cool off?

So yes big difference this can have on EPS etc

Thanks

MS

 

[noirua]

Hi Noirua, yes production forecasts in play here, but dont forget price forecasts here. Its currently at $130 a tonne, but in those future years is it possible for these prices to double or even triple or maybe cool off?
So yes big difference this can have on EPS etc
Thanks
MS

Yes m_s, there is a gamble on future coal prices. Coal production will increase as well as Australia's Eastern Port capacity.
FLX has sold a lot of production forward into 2009 and the recent shareholders in Moolarben will take up about 4mtpa of future mine production, until 2034, at market prices.
I suppose its a choose your price going forward game now as the coal sector moves, perhaps, into its final big boom phase.