michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
- Joined
- 20 October 2005
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Hit $6.20 today which is the lowest the stock has been since middle of October. Perhaps the half yearlys have been badly affected by demurrage, is Moolarben court case going against us - we are suffering a much greater correction than all the otehr coal stocks, most of which are rising. Very disappointed with the performance over the last few weeks.
Hit $6.20 today which is the lowest the stock has been since middle of October. Perhaps the half yearlys have been badly affected by demurrage, is Moolarben court case going against us - we are suffering a much greater correction than all the otehr coal stocks, most of which are rising. Very disappointed with the performance over the last few weeks.
I tried to buy back in at $5.67 today but mustn't have hit the submit button properly and by the time I established I wasn't about to double up, the bird had flown on it's way to $5.90. But I see at the close they were much softer so may be able to get in in low $5.70's which is good buying. Even if Moolarben goes against us there is a lot of value in the rest of the compnay, and these have definitely been oversold.
Hi Reefer, You may well get your opportunity to get in lower as the London FTSE 100 index is down about 3.4% on Monday - a 2-year low. All stocks are being hit no matter what their credentials.
Big opportunities for those who keep their nerve. Well done anyway in unloading FLX when you did.
Finished at $5.71, down 35 cents, after trading during the day at $5.51 to $5.96. Shares traded at 220,336, very light trading.
ASX Announcement: "New Coal Terminal at Newcastle"
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080123/pdf/3171rb43y8x7rf.pdf
Hm not bad, it will boost production
NEW COAL TERMINAL AT NEWCASTLE Felix is pleased to announce the start of construction by Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) of a new coal loading terminal on the Hunter River at Newcastle. Construction of the first stage of a third coal export terminal for the Port of Newcastle will begin immediately following completion yesterday of finance arrangements and the signing of a 35-year lease for the site from the New South Wales Government....
thx
MS
The shares have rebounded quite strongly today. They need to appoint a new CFO more regularly if this is the effect it has. Quarterly's almost upon us.
Hi reefer et al, with the sudden decision of China to suspend exports and the desperate, pay any price scenario, shortage of benchmark thermal we should see the coal producing sector very strong next week.
If Felix were able to sell 5.2 million tonnes of thermal, PCI and semi-soft at US$100+ per tonne, for a full year. Then profits could jump by UP TO AUS$250 million (exchange rates, US$ versus AUS$ could reduce this estimate), and that excludes Moolarben.
HOWEVER, in reality Felix have agreed prices for 2008 ( from 1st January 2008), from the Minerva Mine - 1.3 million tonnes attributable - at US$68 per tonne (US$73 per tonne benchmark thermal equivalent)
Prices against benchmark (coal varies to benchmark + & - on thermal and higher prices apply on PCI and semi-soft, for Felix Resources) for the Yarrabee and Ashton mines (3.9 million tonnes attributable estimate for Y/E 30/6/2008) have yet to be set and will apply from 1st April 2008.
So, Felix are only set to see increased profits from minerva for half of the year ending 30/6/2008 and for a quarter of the year for Ashton and Yarrabee.
Will thermal coal prices hold above US$100 per tonne, that is the important question for Felix. On the UNLIKELY scenario that they do and Moolarben reaces 10mtpa (8mtpa attributable) at these prices, plus Harry Brandt and Athena. Then profits would reach unbelievable levels.
Unfortunately the price of thermal coal may fall back. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH as they say, and maybe or maybe not, it could be worth the gamble.
``It's difficult to see in the next 18 months to two years who would have the capacity to significantly increase supply,'' Graham Chapman, managing director at Richmond, U.K.- based consultant Energy Edge Ltd., said by telephone today.
In Australia, the world's biggest coal exporter, Macarthur Coal Ltd. and Wesfarmers Ltd. said they wouldn't be able to meet contract supplies from some mines in Queensland state after heavy rain. China ordered domestic coal shippers to halt exports after heavy snow and rail congestion shut supplies to 5 percent of the country's coal-fired generators.
Noirua
Looking forward to your expert analysis now the quarterlys are out.
There are some good signs with Minerva out-performing budget, Yarrabee extending it's resource, demurrage down, no flood problems, and coal market strengthening in "demand and price".
I guess the figures are pretty good but I'm unsure how we compare to our peers and competitors. Coal sold is up 23% on the corresponding half year from 2007, but the Ashton Underground has had a huge impact there. The company states that sales from both Yarrabee and Ashton were shunted into the next quarter because of shipping delays, otherwise the figures would have been better again.
Not too sure what to make about it all - released on close of trading so no statement from the market, but my belief is we have a false market in this stock anyway, based ofn the huge number of miniscule trades. A difficult stock to both buy and sell now as available shares keep getting soaked up.
Will wait for your appraisal.
Felix continue on with extremely light trading as hardly anyone with reasonable holdings are willing to sell. Close to $8 again at $7.93, up 18 cents.
Half Yearly report due out end of February. Further announcements expected on upgrades of reserves at Minerva and Yarrabee. Xstrata court case over 20% of Moolarben looks set to roll on and on as Felix continue to develop the mine regardless.
Hi Reefer et al, You seem to have summed it all up as well as anybody.
Felix look as if they will book about $90 million ($81 million profit) from Moolarben in Y/E 2008 from asset sales, against $61 million ($46 million profit) in 2007. Costs set to fall $20 millionin Y/E 30th June 2008.
Coal sales from Yarrabee may well come out the same as 2007 (1.7 million tonnes) and Minerva rise from 1.04 million tonnes to about 1.2 million tonnes. Ashton looks to have moved to cutting back at the opencut mine and going full out on the longwall mine and coal sales should rise from 1,110,000 tonnes to around 1.8 million tonnes.
Minerva coal has the advantage of being shipped on its own and not mixed with other coals at the port. There are rail problems for Minerva and Yarrabee and Minerva may not reach the 1.3 million tonne attributable target sales and Yarrabee the 1.8 million tonne target.
Ashton may well produce its target 2.2 - 2.4 million tonnes of coal attributable to Felix, however, sales may be as low as 1.8 million tonnes.
It was hoped Felix would sell 4.8 to 5.2 million tonnes but may possibly fall short at 4.7 million tonnes. That is well up on last years 3.7 million tonnes.
Profits before tax and including asset sales may well reach $140 - $150 million for 2008.
Following on from the above:
The profit guess for Y/E 30th June 2008, $140 - $150 million, are worked out on the basis of coal prices for thermal out of Minerva for export at US$52 per tonne in the first half year and US$68, agreed, in the second half. Also that the average exchange rate A$ v US$ is an average A$1.08 to the Greenback in the second half year.
Coal prices out of Yarrabee and Ashton set against a benchmark figure of US$55.65 a tonne in the first 9 months, and US$85 per tonne in the last three months, the latter not yet agreed.
Profits would gain or lose by about A$2 million "FOR EVERY US$1 PRICE MOVEMENT" from any agreement above or below US$85 per tonne (based on benchmark thermal) for Ashton and Yarrabee coal. Coal from these mines varies between thermal, PCI and semi-soft and the US$85 per tonne should vary by the same ratio as previously indicated by Felix Resources.
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