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FLX - Felix Resources

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Felix stock has only held up fairly well and trade a tad below $5. Announcement in the next few weeks will show how much profit was made in the financial year ending June 30th, 2007. ABN Amro forecast profits after tax of $41 million, but the Aussie rose relentlessly and may have cut profits back closer to $38 million. A dividend of around 5 to 6 cents is expected, against 4 cents last time.

Profits in year ending June 30th, 2008, should be boosted by a full years production at the Minerva Mine and the Ashton Longwall mine. Increased prices will also help and profits should increase to $70 to $90 million (this range falls into the estimates by three analysts last January), depending on the Greenbacks strength.

Moolarben is unlikely to come into production, IMHO, until early 2009, as constraints at the Newcastle dock will not be fully relieved by the extensions planned, until then.

Xstrata have published an article that says that problems at the Newcastle Dock are worsening. This link shows that to be incorrect as ships waiting have dropped to 54 and a new loader will be added in 2008 to improve this position further: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aK5blvaUfe3g&refer=energy
 
Felix Resources Preliminary Annual Results show after tax profits at $47.2 million, up 37% on last year. The dividend is raised 50% to 6 cents and earnings per share rose to 25.19c from 16.71c. MD, Mr Brian Flannery is upbeat on profits and prospects for the Y/E 2008.

$20 million has been received from Soljitz and is the first tranche of the $90 million to be paid by 2008 for a 10% stake in the Moolarben project. Soljitz will also pay their share of development costs. Felix are in talks to sell a further 10% stake to a Korean company.
 

HI everyone, Just to correct some information. The $20 million has been paid to Felix Resources, but this agreement was on 6/7/2007 and was not therefore included in the accounts for the year ending 30/6/2007.
 
Felix Resources mention, interestingly, that they are involved in Detailed Mine Planning and Feasibility studies that have been completed on a coal mine in India and are presently in discussions with an Indian Group on a possible 50/50 Joint Venture to develop and supply coal to a Domestic PowerStation.
 

Hey GCL, CEY, MCC, RSP look quite attractive now?

What do you think?

thx

MS

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 19.7 17.3 85.7%
Year Ending 30-06-09 32.2 10.6 63.4%

CEY - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 10.6 19.7 32.2 51.4
DPS 8.0 10.0 13.0 19.9
 


Hi m_s, longtime no hear, well, FLX have had quite a fright with a 27% fall but have rebounded back to $5.20 - a buyer has appeared, so it seems. Holding a lot of stock and this one has to come right.

CEY are my favourite coal stock now with the Anvil Hill go-ahead. Increased my holding.

GCL have taken a pounding after every man and his dog took a stake and Xstrata wobbled. Recovering, should have sold but didn't, one of the few coal stocks with hard coking coal reserves.

MCC have had a bit of a surprising downer in the last results. Not sure what will happen here.

RSP: Not following this one.
 
Announcement out also. Moolarben go ahead so long as Felix retains the rights. This will fly again if the court decision is favourable.

07 September 2007
Australian Stock Exchange
Company Announcements
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000
FELIX RECEIVES DEVELOPMENT CONSENT FOR THE MOOLARBEN COAL PROJECT
Felix is pleased to advise that the NSW Minister for Planning, The Hon Frank Sartor MP late yesterday issued the development consent for the new Moolarben Coal Project located near Mudgee on the Ulan-Muswellbrook rail line.
Managing Director, Brian Flannery said this is significant milestone towards starting construction of this world class resource.
This approval signifies the Government’s strong support for the company’s project which will create 320 new employment positions in both open-cut and underground mines.
Construction is due to commence in the first half of 2008.
As a part of the development consent conditions Felix has also agreed to contribute several million dollars to upgrading the local road networks.
The approval allows Felix to produce 10 million tonnes of saleable coal per year most of which will be exported through the Port of Newcastle where the existing coal terminal facilities are being expanded and a new terminal is due to commence construction later this year.
Mr. Flannery said, development of Moolarben will benefit all stakeholders, generating local employment opportunities, contributions to NSW through royalties, and increased returns to Felix shareholders.
Contact details for further information
Brian Flannery David Knappick
Managing Director Chief Financial Officer Felix
 
Error in post. Go ahead is firm regardless of who retains Moolarben rights. If Felix we should rebound pretty quickly.
 

Following this announcement, cheers reefer, many analysts will be looking closely at the costs and profitability - original costs were given at Aus$30 per tonne for the open-cut mine with eventual production at 6mtpa.

Xstrata may be holding out to get the maximum possible for their land that covers 20% of Moolarben. Look however, for a sale agreement for up to 20% of Moolarben to Xstrata that includes the land as a gift to Felix for the life of the Moolarben open-cut mine.

Kores, the Korean company that owns 4% of Minerva and Athena, are favourites to take a 10% stake in Moolarben.
This would leave Felix with a 60% interest in the mine, about A$360 million banked and 40% of the A$300 million costs covered by those taking an interest.

Felix have further interests in exploration at North Yarrabee, Athena, Ashton, Central South Australia and India. Development of the UCC Harry Brandt mine and interest in the expansion of the Newcastle Port.
Felix other interests of note, are in the ADC venture with managers, Ausmelt; Royalties in iron ore production in South Australia; and shares in Western Plains Resources.
 
Felix Resources are down 10 cents at $5.10 after moving lower early on. Fresh from the go-ahead at Moolarben, a low cost mine with waste ratio at 2.7:1. This will grow profits and cash should pour in to buy interests in the mine. Felix may well be set to move against any downturn in markets, imho.
 

Hi Noirua

CEY gone nuts, looks like on the road for glory and growth now

CEY - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 10.6 19.2 39.6 51.4
DPS 8.0 9.0 13.0 19.9

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 19.2 18.8 81.0%
Year Ending 30-06-09 39.6 9.1 106.2%

FLX actually has good number too, do you know if they have a limited mine life or not?

RSP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 21.4 44.1 110.5
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 19.5

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 21.4 24.3 172.6%
Year Ending 30-06-09 44.1 11.8 106.1%

GCL look good at current price i think, someon will eventually step up and buy it at $5 plus

GCL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 25.0 48.2 62.7
DPS 14.0 13.0 24.0 26.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 25.0 16.9 9.6%
Year Ending 30-06-09 48.2 8.8 92.8%

MCC isnt too bad as well, altough may be a bit pricy now. But again, it should be taken over eventually. Sm as RSP as well I guess

MCC - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 33.0 65.8 80.9
DPS 18.0 16.4 32.5 40.5

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 33.0 20.4 19.5%
Year Ending 30-06-09 65.8 10.2 99.4%

RSP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 2.7 16.5 27.0 22.5
DPS 0.0 0.0 8.7 11.1

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 16.5 10.0 518.0%
Year Ending 30-06-09 27.0 6.1 63.6%

thx

MS
 
Hi m_s et al, FLX's Moolarben Project has an official mine life of 21 years ( the same as CEY's Anvil Hill prospect ) that is expected to run-out to 30 years or more.

The Moolarben open-cut mine is expected to have development started in the second quarter of 2008 and should be a producer in 2009, as the Newcastle Port expansion is ready. Production should reach 2 million tonnes in the year ending June 2009, 4 million tonnes in year ending June 2010, rising to 6 million tonnes in year ending June 2011.

The Moolarben underground longwall mines should reach 1 million tonnes production in year ending June 2010, 2 million tonnes production in year ending June 2011, rising to 4 million tonnes in the year ending June 2012.

I believe the eventual production from open-cut and longwall mines is expected to reach 13 mtpa.

There are some more bullish figures on earlier production available, but the Newcastle Port restrictions are likely to stifle these.
 
Next Thursday, 20th September 2007, the court case concerning Moolarben Mining (90% owned by Felix Resources and 10% by Soljitz of Japan) and Ulan Mining (90% owned by Xstrata and 10% by Mitsubishi) starts at the NSW Supreme Court.

The court case concerns the 20% Ulan Mining owned land that represents 20% of the Moolarben Mining Project.

Felix were given a go-ahead by the NSW Government for the open-cut mine and longwall mines at Moolarben, last week.
 
Felix Resources are in an excellent position with their thermal and semi-soft coking coal reserves. Attributable coal is forecast by MD Mr Brian Flannery, for Y/E 30/6/2008, to reach around 5 million tonnes.

Felix contracts, until end of March 2008, are set at around US$53 - 54 a tonne. Forecasts are for US$68 and US$74 for thermal and semi-soft coking coal respectively, from 1st April 2008. Felix are now selling excess thermal coal into the spot market.

The following link gives forecasts for thermal and semi-soft coking coal going forward: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a8YMbcnrxygs&refer=asia
 
Felix jumped to $5.38 on the back of Xstrata's purchase of Anvil Hill from Centennial.

FLX stock is so tightly held it would require a bid over $7.00 to have any chance of success. More likely Xstrata is looking for a percentage stake in Moolarben, after the court case, starting this Thursday in the NSW Supreme Court, is completed.
 
Felix fell back a little as the news of Xstrata's purchase of Cenennial's Anvil Hill prospect sank in. Basically, Centennial were in a pickle and needed cash desperately.

As to an unlikely takeover bid for Felix Resources, we can only realistically look for the likes of BHP Billiton to make a bid for the company. The foreign usurper, Xstrata, are so anti Moolarben, note the court case starting Thursday, it would be a sad day to see them take an interest, either in Moolarben or in Felix.
 
Felix Resources are expected to announce that they have sold a 10% interest in their Moolarben Project to Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) for AUS$100 million.

This report was originally mentioned in June by Reuters in an interview with KEPCO General Manager of Project Development, Mr Lee Sang-Pal.
 

So you think Xstrata will unlikely ever yo make a takover offer for FLX?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 20.5 44.1 110.5
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 15.9


thx

MS
 
michael_selway said:
So you think Xstrata will unlikely ever yo make a takover offer for FLX?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 20.5 44.1 110.5
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 15.9


thx

MS
Click to expand...


Hi, Xstrata have had a close interest in Felix and Moolarben for a very longtime. Some think that Xstrata was very slow in moving and let AMCI get RMM's 19.2% stake at $5.00 a share. I think they new that most of the stock is tightly held and about half the remainder is owned by individuals in the UK, Southern Ireland and Germany. A controlling bid, would have to have been around $7.00 to $8.00 a share to be successful. Somehow I doubt Xstrata have the resolve to go for it at these levels.
 
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