Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

FLX - Felix Resources

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Felix slumped at the opening in light trading to $4.50 before rallying to $4.61. Hopefully, a view that resources stocks are cheap will advantage FLX.

A difficult hold are FLX in these choppy waters, as investors may be panicked further into taking profits.
 
Felix have moved up today after a good report by TradingRoom, "Benefit of Experience gives Felix the edge."
 
Felix trade, up this morning at $4.80, up 12 cents. ( six year closing high was $4.93 )

We are waiting now for the outcome of a decision by NRG Flinders Power Partnerships ( NRGF) on the Phillipson Coal Reserves ( 5 billion tonnes of Sub-Bitumous Coal ) that is planned for use at their Port Augusta Power Station. This will follow on from the run-down of supplies from the Leigh Creek Mine.

In the first three years to May 2007, Flinders have paid Felix Tenement and administration costs that escalate over the following three years.

The purchase/exercise price will reflect historical expenditure by Felix since obtaining the tenements EL2717, RL 100 and RL104. There is also a provision for Royalty Payments to Felix based on future production.

NRG Flinders have a right to extend their decision to May 2010 whilst making escalating payments that are allowed against the exercise price.
 
Felix finished at $4.75, which overall is an excellent effort, SO FAR. One of very few shares not to be affected by the market slide. Analysts have given asset values at about $1.3 billion with the market Cap at around $860 million ( this excludes Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob royalties; as well as sale and royalties from Phillipson; and a value on ADC and S.A.S.E.
 
Felix were hit early on, in light trading, and fell to $4.52 and recovered a little to $4.58. The fall, from $4.75, was caused by a forecast that Chinese growth would fall to 8.5% this year. An article on "Aireview" said that all commodities had been hit, "you name it", and this had followed on from the equity slide.

Aireview also pointed out that this may well be a shake-out similar to that in May/June last year and that everything, like then, would return to normal.
 
Light trading continues as Felix Resources accellerate back to $4.75. Felix, imho, do seem to have that wow factor with all the assets firing on all cylinders at the moment, except perhaps poor old Ballymoney in Northern Ireland that we have all forgotten about.

These no risk option returns with WPG, Iron Ore and Flinders, sub-bitumous coal, seem to have been forgotten by ALL the analysts.
 
I thought Ballymoney was out of the equation now. Didn't the compnay announce a long while back that the leases had not ben renewed??
 
Reefer said:
I thought Ballymoney was out of the equation now. Didn't the compnay announce a long while back that the leases had not ben renewed??
Click to expand...

Felix still have two companies virtually mothballed, Ballymoney Power and Auriada Ltd. The Northern Ireland Government have suspended a decision on mining until November 2007. The opposition is very strong and is led by the biggest party in Northern Ireland, the DUP.

It's Ok having opposition to a mine, but if people are prepared to blow you up if you try and put one there it just isn't worth it.

Felix would probably like a get out on this one, as they are struggling to get the Aussie tax people to accept the enormous loss against tax. Not much chance of that either.

Maybe the Indians who have taken over the UK's Corus might stump up something on a 30-year-view.

Value of Ballymoney is probably less than zero at the moment.
 
It's worth a look at the three analysts reports:

First by Wilson HTM on 22/01/07:
http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20070122_WHTM.pdf

Second by Austock on 30/01/07:
http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20070130_AUSTOCk.pdf

Third by ABN-Amro Morgans on 8/12/2006:
http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20061208_ABNAmro.pdf

Company Half Yearly Report on Boardroom Radio in an interview with Felix Resources, MD, Mr Brian Flannery:
http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/18281/wmp/friaqnix52
 
Nice chart Noirua. Held up better than most.
 

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kennas said:
Nice chart Noirua. Held up better than most.
Click to expand...

Hi, Has held up well but needs the all important go ahead at Moolarben combined with the Newcastle Port Extension. Held up by NSW Elections.
 
Good news seems to come in abundance as Felix stock continues in plus territory today.
Further news of the Peculiar Knob tenement as WPG sight their recent report as showing the iron ore results as amongst one of the best High Grade finds ever found in Australia. Felix have a 5% share interest and royalties on future production.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070308/pdf/311ckfrgsxy3h1.pdf
 
The value or at least the outlook for Felix Resources would change with a go-ahead at Moolarben, near Mudgee, Central West NSW.

Moolarben open-cut would start at 4 mtpa and gradually ramp up to 9 mtpa with an additional 4 mtpa in 2010 at the longwall underground mine.

Will there be outside interest for Moolarben and would Felix Resources welcome this? I say welcome, because the main 5 shareholders have over 60% of the companies shares.

Moolarben is valued at A$800 to A$900 million by one analyst and Felix will need A$80 million to develop the open-cut mine and A$150 million more for the underground mine. ( 2005 prices )

Felix should make EBITDA$45 -55 million for the current tax year and this should total around EBITDA $110 - 125 million after asset sales. This should give Felix enough cash to develop the Moolarben Open-Cut mine.

Why then would Felix like a partner. Well, all this coal will need to be sold, principally to China, Japan and Korea. A deal with a major Asian company or companies would cement the sales for the future.
Also Felix would like to accellerate their longwall mine at Moolarben and perhaps their 51% owned Athena tenements.

Moolarben may well be worth around A$800 - A$900 million and an asset sale worth around A$200 millon or more would quickly accellerate Felix Resources on to the ASX200 and then ASX100.
Shareholders would also be looking for rewards in the form of increased dividends, capital return and a company buy-back of shares.

At a share price of nearly $5.00, a dividend of 20 cents a share, 16 cents up on last years dividend, would be nearer the mark.

It's a case of expand and expand for Felix Resources and this does cost a great deal, especially, if the company rewards its shareholders as well.
 
A good performance by Felix Resources in finishing up 2 cents at $4.89, just 3 cents off their six-year-high. Trading was light again and perhaps made price movements a bit meaningless. All the same, there appears to be interested party/parties picking up stock.

The main interest, as we know, is the awaited go-ahead decision for Moolarben and the Newcastle Port. Upside, on a favourable decision in the near term, should/may spark a great deal of interest from foreign companies in South Korea, Japan, Europe and China, and maybe Peabody, Xstrata or others.
 

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