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Do you have any facts to back this assertion up or is this just something you decided to make up?
Nah, its just a theory
Do you have any facts to back this assertion up or is this just something you decided to make up?
Corporate travel results have generally been reasonable, although the downturn in the resources sector has again affected performance in Western Australia and the Australian corporate travel market as a whole
FLT announced a profit downgrade this morning and the share price has tanked
Starting to sound like a broker record now... FLT has another downgrade yesterday - I think it's the 3rd since Dec 2014 (puntuated by one upgrade in Sept 2015). What makes this one worse is that:
- FLT only re-confirmed guidance 2 weeks ago in the Macquarie Conference (albeit with the proviso that meeting guidance would not be a formality).
- FLT cited external factors (e.g. Oz election, Britexit poll) impacting the results. These echo those expressed by QAN and VAH, but not CVO, WEB and CTD.
- FLT also mentioned further investments.
So it appears that FLT, at a minimum, is having less visibility in earning forecasts. Given that FLT has a relatively high fixed cost base (being largely a traditional travel agent), any operational deleverage could play out quickly.
It's not that expensive on fundamental measures (PE ~12.5-13 times) and has a clean balance sheet... but PBT has gone backwards for 3 years in a row (FY14 $376m, FY15 $363m, FY16 $354m).
Early warning sign of it's business model? Or a mere transition period before the next phase of growth?
CTD is actually one of the best performers on ASX200 today...not too sure what's going there. Surely some of the factors that are at play for FLT are also weighing on CTD??- FLT cited external factors (e.g. Oz election, Britexit poll) impacting the results. These echo those expressed by QAN and VAH, but not CVO, WEB and CTD.
HLO also upgraded their TTV forecast for the year a couple of weeks ago. That's a company that has gone through a pretty substantial rebranding/online update, and recently merged with AOT.
CTD is actually one of the best performers on ASX200 today...not too sure what's going there. Surely some of the factors that are at play for FLT are also weighing on CTD??
I am not as familiar with the CTD model, I assume being predominantly 'corporate' that their branch presence is likely much smaller. I see that they have Asia as their biggest TTV contributor, which is one of the only areas that FLT didn't have an excuse for :
Starting to sound like a broker record now...
Average broker targets (6 of them released yesterday) is 35.19.
Long tail on the daily, currently.
short term res at approx. 34.
One year since the last post, and the profit yo-yo of FLT continues. Yesterday it delivered an upgrade (which is actually an upgrade to a downgraded guidance)... the share price however is up around 2 year highs.
For the record, PBT trend is still down year on year, for the 4th year in a row.
FY14 $376m
FY15 $363m (-3.6%)
FY16 $354m (-2.5%)
FY17 $325-330m (-8.1%)
Yes FY17 H2 is looking stronger than pcp... but at PE ~20x for a business that isn't showing much sign of sustained growth, the valuation feels a bit full.
I traded yesterday's announcement with a "sell the news" slant given the share price action leading into it... and the market slapped me silly. Let's see if day 2 makes any difference.
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