FLT - Flight Centre Travel Group
- Thread starter It's Snake Pliskin
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Re: Flight Centre FLT
Have been watching FLT for the last month, based on the massive slide south. Thought it might have offerred some opportunities. Seems that the sentiments of earlier posts are not too wrong.
The stock seems to want to hold at around $10, however this has not factored in the the potential effect of future shocks associated with potential Bird Flu Pandemic, etc(if you know what I mean).
Unlike other large distributors who operate as Franchisors and have limited exposure to major impacts, by the fact that its Franchisees will absorb any major movements, FLT own and operate their own outlets and any shocks will have to be absorbed by shareholders alone.
The other issue of reducing margins being paid by Suppliers (Airlines, Tour Operators, Hotels, Car Hire etc) is of even more concern in that they report net profits of approximately 1% of turnover. Therfore it follows that it only requires a minor reduction in commission receipts to wipe out any profitability.
I have read that the business model with which they operate no longer carries the clout that it did and in fact has become a real burden that prevents FLT from making the necessary changes to align themselves with current market conditions.
The general feel is that at $10 the stock still has substantial downside with predictiond ranging from $8 - $4. If these level are reached, the real question is can, they survive.
Have been watching FLT for the last month, based on the massive slide south. Thought it might have offerred some opportunities. Seems that the sentiments of earlier posts are not too wrong.
The stock seems to want to hold at around $10, however this has not factored in the the potential effect of future shocks associated with potential Bird Flu Pandemic, etc(if you know what I mean).
Unlike other large distributors who operate as Franchisors and have limited exposure to major impacts, by the fact that its Franchisees will absorb any major movements, FLT own and operate their own outlets and any shocks will have to be absorbed by shareholders alone.
The other issue of reducing margins being paid by Suppliers (Airlines, Tour Operators, Hotels, Car Hire etc) is of even more concern in that they report net profits of approximately 1% of turnover. Therfore it follows that it only requires a minor reduction in commission receipts to wipe out any profitability.
I have read that the business model with which they operate no longer carries the clout that it did and in fact has become a real burden that prevents FLT from making the necessary changes to align themselves with current market conditions.
The general feel is that at $10 the stock still has substantial downside with predictiond ranging from $8 - $4. If these level are reached, the real question is can, they survive.
Re: Flight Centre FLT
There biggest impact which has lead to the profit downgrade and subsequent price fall has been from payments from airlines. This is where FLT make most of their profits.
Don't forget that the likes of QAN make a lot of business from FLT also. The fact that QAN have dropped their commisions from airline carriers, means that they are more likely to be able to negotiate better deals with the big players, like FLT.
Don't underestimate the market share that FLT has in the travel market. If they no longer make there money from commisions they will do as other agencies have successfully done around the world, which is to charge a fee to the end consumer. On the amount of turnover for a business such as FLT a $10 fee payable by travellers would have a significant affect to their NPAT.
As for people using the internet for booking their flights instead of going to a travel agent. A lot is to be said for convenience, knowledge of the industry, travel insurance and substantial infrastructure in their flight searching facilities should see their business survive.
I bought in at $13.40 and bought more shares at $9.15. I think they will do quite well in the medium to long term from these current prices.
There biggest impact which has lead to the profit downgrade and subsequent price fall has been from payments from airlines. This is where FLT make most of their profits.
Don't forget that the likes of QAN make a lot of business from FLT also. The fact that QAN have dropped their commisions from airline carriers, means that they are more likely to be able to negotiate better deals with the big players, like FLT.
Don't underestimate the market share that FLT has in the travel market. If they no longer make there money from commisions they will do as other agencies have successfully done around the world, which is to charge a fee to the end consumer. On the amount of turnover for a business such as FLT a $10 fee payable by travellers would have a significant affect to their NPAT.
As for people using the internet for booking their flights instead of going to a travel agent. A lot is to be said for convenience, knowledge of the industry, travel insurance and substantial infrastructure in their flight searching facilities should see their business survive.
I bought in at $13.40 and bought more shares at $9.15. I think they will do quite well in the medium to long term from these current prices.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: Flight Centre FLT
Hi thanks for the info
hm u bought it back when it was sliding down?
very dangerous strat not recommended actually, picking up stocks on the slide eg BSL & TLS & IAG!
Maybe u should have sold at 13.00 and bought it back when it rebounds from low of 9.15, maybe only if it reaches 10.00+?
Btw instead of "doubling up" you could have bought another stock with better value at that point in time?
Alien said:
Hi thanks for the info
hm u bought it back when it was sliding down?
very dangerous strat not recommended actually, picking up stocks on the slide eg BSL & TLS & IAG!
Maybe u should have sold at 13.00 and bought it back when it rebounds from low of 9.15, maybe only if it reaches 10.00+?
Btw instead of "doubling up" you could have bought another stock with better value at that point in time?
WaySolid
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Re: Flight Centre FLT
Averaging down on Flight Centre? Yikes.
Good luck, hope they pick up soon.
Averaging down on Flight Centre? Yikes.
Good luck, hope they pick up soon.
Re: Flight Centre FLT
Last quarter results shown a turnaround to the decline they were experiencing.
Obviously still a long way to go but very promising signs of a major turnaround for this company.
I am very happy sitting on my average down for FLT.
WaySolid said:
Last quarter results shown a turnaround to the decline they were experiencing.
Obviously still a long way to go but very promising signs of a major turnaround for this company.
I am very happy sitting on my average down for FLT.
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
good luck Alien for your faith in FLT .Held this stock some 2 years ago when it was in the $24 range but started the big slide due to online bookings and tighter margins from airlines .Averaging down whilst stock was still in slide was guttsy especially with this one because the bottom seemed endless .Kicking back now so faith & patience has won in the end but dont hold to long
good luck Alien for your faith in FLT .Held this stock some 2 years ago when it was in the $24 range but started the big slide due to online bookings and tighter margins from airlines .Averaging down whilst stock was still in slide was guttsy especially with this one because the bottom seemed endless .Kicking back now so faith & patience has won in the end but dont hold to long
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
exactly, unlimited loss, can take u out of the game forever
justjohn said:Averaging down whilst stock was still in slide was guttsy especially with this one because the bottom seemed endless
exactly, unlimited loss, can take u out of the game forever
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
A large drop today with negative volume the last three days. Nick what`s your analysis on this one now?
A large drop today with negative volume the last three days. Nick what`s your analysis on this one now?
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
Snake,
Not concerned unless volume starts to accelerate. You can see the last few days, whilst down in price, have also been on lower volume. This is weak hands taking profits after the recent strength. If it was serious selling then volume would be a lot higher. You can see Friday was an up day on high volume, so buyers are still around for the dips. I wouldn't be surprised to see them come in again if prices dip further.
Snake,
Not concerned unless volume starts to accelerate. You can see the last few days, whilst down in price, have also been on lower volume. This is weak hands taking profits after the recent strength. If it was serious selling then volume would be a lot higher. You can see Friday was an up day on high volume, so buyers are still around for the dips. I wouldn't be surprised to see them come in again if prices dip further.
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
Thanks Nick
Thanks Nick
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
On fundamentals, I would not buy this stock.
The business is being attacked from online competitors, including the airlines.
The company has good brand awareness and may win long term but not without some desperate fighting. They are not the number one online choice to travel on. Definitely easier stocks to buy.
I would have thought technically, the story is not good either.
The stock is on a long term down trend with no sign of a break.
On fundamentals, I would not buy this stock.
The business is being attacked from online competitors, including the airlines.
The company has good brand awareness and may win long term but not without some desperate fighting. They are not the number one online choice to travel on. Definitely easier stocks to buy.
I would have thought technically, the story is not good either.
The stock is on a long term down trend with no sign of a break.
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
Fundamentally biased heh. Yes not a long term buy at this stage.
Technically there is more money flowing in than out, however volume is still low. It could be a short term trade looking a for a dollar in profit if bought now.
It has temporarily picked up and only time will tell.
Knobby22 said:
Fundamentally biased heh. Yes not a long term buy at this stage.
Technically there is more money flowing in than out, however volume is still low. It could be a short term trade looking a for a dollar in profit if bought now.
It has temporarily picked up and only time will tell.
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
Well $0.70 today from the low to close! Light volume though. $12.50 may stop it in the short term when those who bought at around that price break even and get out - because they are pussy cats without kahunas. Or maybe they will be smart because the low volume is not really compelling.
Open interest will be interesting.
Snake Pliskin said:
Well $0.70 today from the low to close! Light volume though. $12.50 may stop it in the short term when those who bought at around that price break even and get out - because they are pussy cats without kahunas. Or maybe they will be smart because the low volume is not really compelling.
Open interest will be interesting.
wayneL
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
Open interest?
Snake Pliskin said:
Open interest?
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
I`ll rephrase it to early trading.
wayneL said:
I`ll rephrase it to early trading.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
Ah Gotcha!
Ah Gotcha!
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
Light volume is of concern, but as yet nothing to act on. The "background" picture is what is important and the back ground suggests professional buying. If they beleive they will get their fill at current levels they will simply sit and absorb any offers. If they think they can get their fill at a lower level they will back off.
One thing to remember is that professional money "accumulates" supply. This has been in operation since November as you can see with the higher stopping volume. Prices went sideways on extended low volume. The recent move to $12.50 was on increased volume suggesting the professionals had to start paying up because they did not get their fill at the lower levels. This makes sense because of the announcement. Once professional money has accumulated the available supply then prices will naturally rise, even on low volume. Professionals tend to be the first ones in and are then followed bu the weaker hands who are the one's that tend to slowly push prices higher.
Nick
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
Light volume is of concern, but as yet nothing to act on. The "background" picture is what is important and the back ground suggests professional buying. If they beleive they will get their fill at current levels they will simply sit and absorb any offers. If they think they can get their fill at a lower level they will back off.
One thing to remember is that professional money "accumulates" supply. This has been in operation since November as you can see with the higher stopping volume. Prices went sideways on extended low volume. The recent move to $12.50 was on increased volume suggesting the professionals had to start paying up because they did not get their fill at the lower levels. This makes sense because of the announcement. Once professional money has accumulated the available supply then prices will naturally rise, even on low volume. Professionals tend to be the first ones in and are then followed bu the weaker hands who are the one's that tend to slowly push prices higher.
Nick
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
I think this is good for all to read.
Nick it is always a pleasure reading your posts.
Snake :bekloppt:
Nick Radge said:
I think this is good for all to read.
Nick it is always a pleasure reading your posts.
Snake :bekloppt:
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Re: FLT - Flight Centre
the main reason why flight centre is going so badly at the moment is beacuse many airlines have lowered the commisions which they give to travel agencies such as fligh centre. I also think that they may need a revamp of their management. it just dosent seem to be working for them.
twojacks28
the main reason why flight centre is going so badly at the moment is beacuse many airlines have lowered the commisions which they give to travel agencies such as fligh centre. I also think that they may need a revamp of their management. it just dosent seem to be working for them.
twojacks28
