FLT - Flight Centre Travel Group

[tinhat]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

I had a stop loss trigger at around $19 and never got back in

 

[notting]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

I had a stop loss trigger at around $19 and never got back in

Chuck it in SEK to make yourself feel better when it looks to be turning again.

 

[Boggo]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Chuck it in SEK to make yourself feel better when it looks to be turning again.

Wouldn't mind seeing you elaborate on that statement notting, its at the same price now that it was just over three years ago. Let us in on what you know

(click to expand)

 

[notting]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Wouldn't mind seeing you elaborate on that statement notting, its at the same price now that it was just over three years ago. Let us in on what you know

Unfortunatly I don't know anything, if I did I'd just leave and pray that you trust me. :star:

In general my sentimental fondness could be based on the fact that these internet retailers are all doing fairly well with minimal overhead risk and capital reqirements and that FLTs performance should not be that much better than SEK, nor should REAs.
Further, 3 years of consolidation is bound to come out with a nice break at some point and that that is more likely to be up when we start to see a bit of volume coming in on the pos moves.
Also, it has made some pretty good foot holds in Asian markets and could really do quite well if that all works out.
There is a reason that sentiment is relativley weak on SEK which I remember hearing and thinking it was flawed.
Trouble is I can't remember what that was!!ld:

 

[tinhat]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Chuck it in SEK to make yourself feel better when it looks to be turning again.

I don't want to hijack the FLT thread but I also held SEK a while ago and got stopped out on that too. Same with WEB and IIN - both have romped it home since then. As someone fairly new to stock market investing over the past couple of years, getting stopped out on these stocks is the hard lesson I have learned about buying with momentum/trend, especially in a sideways market. Buying on fundamental value analysis without regard for the trend is not sufficient. Unless one buys with absolute conviction and is prepared to ride out falls in price buying these stocks without price momentum behind them is only going to do your head in.

As for SEK, since their Brazilian and Mexican acquisitions the balance sheet has lost its luster. They will have to show that they can realize the earnings growth forecasts given it's currently trading on a PE of 21. SEK might be worth a punt if it falls down to around the $6.20 level with a stop at 5.80

There will always be opportunities to buy good stocks if one is patient enough. I think CCL is looking like a good buy on this current pullback (oh that's right, I got stopped out of CCL last year at around $11 too) :nosympath

 

[RottenValue]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Never have understood the psychology behind stop losses - basing a sell decision on a random fluctuation in the stock price seems strange.

Then again, I don't really buy anything unless I plan to hold for 3-5 years or the story changes dramatically. I guess that makes me more of a medium term fundamental investor. Been in FLT since April and very happy that I chose to buy more when the price fell in June. Plenty of growth left in this business in my opinion so in no hurry to sell despite nice paper profit in 6 months.

 

[oldblue]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

I think you've answered your own question, RV.

Stop losses are used by traders to protect paper profits. Not at all suitable for longterm fundamental investors who employ entirely different criteria and mindset. Room for both approaches in the market but take care if trading not to let a bad trade become a longterm hold!

 

[notting]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

$6.20 level with a stop at 5.80. CCL is looking like a good buy on this current pullback (oh that's right, I got stopped out of CCL last year at around $11 too):nosympath

Yep. between 6.20 and 5.80 would be inticing!!
Haven't been looking at CCL. Will get to know it.

 

[Boggo]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Never have understood the psychology behind stop losses - basing a sell decision on a random fluctuation in the stock price seems strange.

Then again, I don't really buy anything unless I plan to hold for 3-5 years or the story changes dramatically.

The reality of your theory applied to SEK.
Since 2007 SEK has paid $0.82 in dividends. In the period 2007 to 2011 inflation has eroded the effective value of $6.42 by $0.83 so you have lost 1c in five years.

The only advantage in that period would be the franking credits if you are in a SMSF etc where you pay 15% tax and in this case its almost irrelevant anyway.

I would be looking at actively managing this situation where with a bit of effort you could double your initial outlay

Just my

(SEK and FLT - click to expand)

 

[RottenValue]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Not sure how we got to talking about SEK in the FLT thread as I never mentioned it. As it turns out I do happen to own a small parcel (2000 shares) of SEK but only since 25 July 2012 when it was on offer at $5.93. No stop loss - and happy to buy more if price comes back to around $6 anytime soon.

 

[Boggo]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Not sure how we got to talking about SEK in the FLT thread as I never mentioned it.

Read all of the recent posts and it will appear

 

[JTLP]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Onwards and upwards for this badboy...all the way to a high of $40 today!

Profit upgrade certainly helped...can't help but think that I looked at this at $30 and thought how lovely it looked...ahh well!

2 questions:
1 - Am I right in assuming that this may suffer some sort of pullback if the AUD was to weaken? I'm assuming they are doing so well on their AUS market due to the high dollar.

2 - Who hold and when did you enter/intend to exit?

Personally I find their consultants useless but hey they must be doing something right!

 

[InCasinoOut]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

The thing i find hard to understand is that people still buy holidays in a retail shop?

I was surprised when i saw these shops here about 10 years ago, wondering how a retail holiday shop still traded. Just like the video store and the CD shop. I assumed in a few years they would all be gone but they are still here, and now i am intersted in shares i still find it puzzling. I've never met anyone who bought a holiday from a retail store, don't think i would even consider it. Most people buy some flights and book a hotel, it's very easy and cheaper.

They are doing very well so i must not know much about normal people. Guess they can just sell the stores and move onto the web?

 

[VSntchr]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

The thing i find hard to understand is that people still buy holidays in a retail shop?

I was surprised when i saw these shops here about 10 years ago, wondering how a retail holiday shop still traded. Just like the video store and the CD shop. I assumed in a few years they would all be gone but they are still here, and now i am intersted in shares i still find it puzzling. I've never met anyone who bought a holiday from a retail store, don't think i would even consider it. Most people buy some flights and book a hotel, it's very easy and cheaper.

They are doing very well so i must not know much about normal people. Guess they can just sell the stores and move onto the web?

Maybe you don't know anyone that has booked long o/seas trips?

Out of my friends that have gone on Euro/America trips 100% of them have involved a travel agent in some way - including myself.

 

[Huskar]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Maybe you don't know anyone that has booked long o/seas trips?

Out of my friends that have gone on Euro/America trips 100% of them have involved a travel agent in some way - including myself.

I agree. Went o/s recently and a travel agent actually saved me money because they found me a better way of connecting through. All the online booking places usually charge a hidden commission anyways it's just that you can see it when a travel agent does it so you want to try and bypass them. If I really wanted to get it cheap I probably could have with lots of trawling around etc etc but I am prepared to pay $90 on a $1500 trip to save the hassle and waste of time.

My

Of course that experience didn't keep me holding onto FLT - I sold at 27!

 

[ROE]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

The thing i find hard to understand is that people still buy holidays in a retail shop?

I was surprised when i saw these shops here about 10 years ago, wondering how a retail holiday shop still traded. Just like the video store and the CD shop. I assumed in a few years they would all be gone but they are still here, and now i am intersted in shares i still find it puzzling. I've never met anyone who bought a holiday from a retail store, don't think i would even consider it. Most people buy some flights and book a hotel, it's very easy and cheaper.

They are doing very well so i must not know much about normal people. Guess they can just sell the stores and move onto the web?

The sort of comments people make when they have no idea about the business model.

No one eats dominos pizza because it's unhealthy or people now more health aware..hit DMP
same argument use for RFG but RFG got an extra one...coffee is the first thing people stop drinking
when they short of cash

Australia High Dollar stop students come to study in Australia hit NVT

Debt collectors are dodgy people or when economy going well no one has debt hit CCP

No one rent stuff because it just so much more expensive than buy hit TGA

Qantas national brand, well recognised everyone got to fly these day buy QAN

 

[Huskar]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

The sort of comments people make when they have no idea about the business model.

No one eats dominos pizza because it's unhealthy or people now more health aware..hit DMP
same argument use for RFG but RFG got an extra one...coffee is the first thing people stop drinking
when they short of cash

Australia High Dollar stop students come to study in Australia hit NVT

Debt collectors are dodgy people or when economy going well no one has debt hit CCP

No one rent stuff because it just so much more expensive than buy hit TGA

Qantas national brand, well recognised everyone got to fly these day buy QAN

Spot on ROE.

Understanding a business model is a vital but elusive input into any longer-term investment decision.

 

[McLovin]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

I am surprised that the bricks and mortar stores still do so well, especially when the internet was designed for things like travel (one big searchable database). I guess like most things as complexity and price increases people still like having someone to talk to. $10k on a holiday <> as buying a $50 shirt on line. Most people would probably still find organising a three week holiday daunting (working out times/schedules/hotels etc) and a lot of people just can't be bothered, so they go to a travel agent. Plus, they grey nomads love doing tours and places like FLT certainly offer plenty of those.

 

[InCasinoOut]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Yes all very valid comments. I would invest in Flight Centre because the numbers don't lie. But i would rather invest in DMP because i know ppl eat pizza more and more, i see them do it. I might go into a store to book my next holiday to see how it works, and to educate myself.

 

[Superb Parrot]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

I am surprised that the bricks and mortar stores still do so well........

I designed a European holiday in Europe for the two of us. It was too complex for me to arrange alone but by providing the ideas, FLT filled in the details. It was like a conversation, both of us made mistakes but these were corrected and it was a great trip. Costs were trimmed down in the planning.
To me this to me is great FLT territory, person to person, design your own itinerary and shun pre-digested overpriced journeys.