FLT - Flight Centre Travel Group

[wonderrman]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Wonder,

I agree with you Re: Buffett, his is exceptional circumstances, but thats not to say that no money can be made from fundamental buying (as opposed to trading).

Hi prawn, yes I agree money can be made from fundamental buying. It really isn't that hard to say "oh if I buy now I'm going to make money in 5 yrs." Thats what a lot of funnymentalists do and to me you don't need to very smart at all to do that.

At the moment I could say the markets are very cheap and buy based on the fact they will probably be higher in 5 years time. Anyone could do that. What would happen in those five years though? I could be in a losing investment for 4.5yrs out of the 5.

getting a 10% pa return on their initial investment. Remeber that div yeild is diffeent for everyone depending what their buy price is...

Yes dividends are good for people who invest with a blind fold. Returns are measly in comparision to what you can make by trading the trends. In the big blue chips the most 'conservative' organisations/individuals invest in you probably get a max of 5% pa in yields. This is in comparision to making 20% off one trade over a one to two month period. Personally, I know which one I would want, but each to their own and I understand that everyone's situation is different.

W.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Using the great man theory to explain Buffett is just a little ridiculous since he publically attributes all his success pretty much to Ben Graham and Phil Fisher, who he says he learnt everything from (80%/20%) and both those guys have investment records similar to Buffett...

So all of a sudden we have 2 or 3 great individuals (just to name three) who apparently are complete exceptions and we should not try to learn from....cause they are freaks.......even though their methods are as coherent and simple as the sun coming up in the morning....and they've published them!

I can tell you, on paper, I have lost a truckload of money as the market index reduced by over 50% in last year or so......!!!!!......and I've been buying and selling right through it

I have one stock, for example, whose earnings have stayed still, I bought massively at 4X earnings and it recently traded round 2X earnings.....I had a 50% loss..hehe

What am I meant to do......give up massive franked dividend yields and growth prospects, tax advantages........just cause some idiots think our civilisation is going down the toilet...or whatever the reason

Just on FLT, it's funny you mentioned $19 cause that's round when I did start lightly acquiring it again........in the past I owned it around between $9-$32

 

[prawn_86]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Finally entered this today. Probably should have waited a bit to see how this flu thing pans out, but im happy at these prices

 

[persistentone]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Using the great man theory to explain Buffett is just a little ridiculous since he publically attributes all his success pretty much to Ben Graham and Phil Fisher, who he says he learnt everything from (80%/20%) and both those guys have investment records similar to Buffett...

So all of a sudden we have 2 or 3 great individuals (just to name three) who apparently are complete exceptions and we should not try to learn from....cause they are freaks.......even though their methods are as coherent and simple as the sun coming up in the morning....and they've published them!

I can tell you, on paper, I have lost a truckload of money as the market index reduced by over 50% in last year or so......!!!!!......and I've been buying and selling right through it

I have one stock, for example, whose earnings have stayed still, I bought massively at 4X earnings and it recently traded round 2X earnings.....I had a 50% loss..hehe

What am I meant to do......give up massive franked dividend yields and growth prospects, tax advantages........just cause some idiots think our civilisation is going down the toilet...or whatever the reason

Just on FLT, it's funny you mentioned $19 cause that's round when I did start lightly acquiring it again........in the past I owned it around between $9-$32

Which company did you buy whose stock is showing a Price/Earnings ratio of 2?! Maybe we can help you push that one up a little?

 

[wonderrman]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Sorry I missed the last few post and have busy the last few days.

I'm not going to argue against you Rainmaker as I really can't be stuffed. I will highlight one thing though that you said.

just cause some idiots think our civilisation is going down the toilet...or whatever the reason

Those collective group of 'idiots' is the market. The market is irrational and you've got to adapt to it. There is no point fighting it, you won't win in the near term if you buy "low", as the past 12 months has proved. As they say, why catch a falling knife?

I have one stock, for example, whose earnings have stayed still, I bought massively at 4X earnings and it recently traded round 2X earnings.....I had a 50% loss..hehe

As I said, markets are irrational. PE's, yields mean nothing! Why would you hold onto a 50% loss when you could make it a 2%, then simply buy it again on the upswing? To me it just seems illogical that you would hold a loss and keep buying more of a loss. Buy high and sell higher, not buy low and sell high. It never works for the average person, unless you want to wait years and years. Anyone could make money that way.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Wonder,

Why dont you start yet another TA vs FA, short term vs long term thread, where you can argue till the cows come home.

You have admitted that everyone has their own strategy so why not leave it at that. For a young person you certainly seem to think that your method is by far the best and that everyone should do as you do. Why not just accept that everyone has different goals and ways to reach those goals.

 

[wonderrman]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Wonder,

Why dont you start yet another TA vs FA, short term vs long term thread, where you can argue till the cows come home.

I'm simply responding to the questions and comments been put to me. Just stating the facts as well mate.

For a young person you certainly seem to think that your method is by far the best and that everyone should do as you do.

Can't you remember, I'm now 50 years old and very rich so my comments do not cloud the judgements of other readers because of the "age" issue.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Its really being having a crack at the 5.60 resistance lately but no clear break as yet. Yesterday and monday the price dropped as low as about 5.25 but was soaked up to close in the 5.40's both days which is a good sign.

This is a long term investment for me but of course im still evaluating all the time

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

FLT is up 8% today...........its reported they are selling their melbourne office building for a loss.........and the FLU epidemic has just been raised by WHO to 5 out of maximum 6.....

Can someone please explain this one to me slowly?

 

[JTLP]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

FLT is up 8% today...........its reported they are selling their melbourne office building for a loss.........and the FLU epidemic has just been raised by WHO to 5 out of maximum 6.....

Can someone please explain this one to me slowly?

Don't know about sale of office building in Melbourne

BUT
Here is a pretty good explanation:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Says it applies to Avian Flu but covers Pandemic Influenza Phases

 

[prawn_86]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

From a TA point of view the support at $5.40 held well and now $6.50ish needs to be broken to confirm the next leg up.

Cant attach a chart sorry cause im not at home as my home comp has died

 

[ROE]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

From a TA point of view the support at $5.40 held well and now $6.50ish needs to be broken to confirm the next leg up.

Cant attach a chart sorry cause im not at home as my home comp has died

When are you getting on board, you didn't buy when its 8 bucks, you didn't buy when it's $4 and you don't buy now when ? maybe at $10 hehehehe

 

[prawn_86]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Finally entered this today. Probably should have waited a bit to see how this flu thing pans out, but im happy at these prices

When are you getting on board, you didn't buy when its 8 bucks, you didn't buy when it's $4 and you don't buy now when ? maybe at $10 hehehehe

Already bought old son. Got my fill at $5.43.

Now is the dilemma of do i set a trailling stop and turn it into a mid term trade or do i hold for years as i originally planned (providing im happy with the co progress obviously)

 

[ROE]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Already bought old son. Got my fill at $5.43.

Now is the dilemma of do i set a trailling stop and turn it into a mid term trade or do i hold for years as i originally planned (providing im happy with the co progress obviously)

Sorry dude I speak too soon ...hope you do well ... I have friend short the stock at $6 exit at $6.22 at a lost in past days .. I told him when I long he shouldn't short

 

[prawn_86]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Sorry dude I speak too soon ...hope you do well ... I have friend short the stock at $6 exit at $6.22 at a lost in past days .. I told him when I long he shouldn't short

If it can clear the $6.50 barrier that will signal a decent move upwards imo.

Any proper chartists out there care to give their thoughts?

 

[gohawks]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

If it can clear the $6.50 barrier that will signal a decent move upwards imo.

Any proper chartists out there care to give their thoughts?

Well we surged past that mark today. Obviously a good sign but anyone care to enlighten me on what this means from a T/A point of view? What is the next price barrier etc?

 

[prawn_86]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Well we surged past that mark today. Obviously a good sign but anyone care to enlighten me on what this means from a T/A point of view? What is the next price barrier etc?

It will need to close above 6.50 to be sure of the break. Nothing is a given in todays market, as its dropping back quickly.

My amatuer TA suggest 7.50 as the next resistance if the break through 6.50 holds

 

[persistentone]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

It will need to close above 6.50 to be sure of the break. Nothing is a given in todays market, as its dropping back quickly.

My amatuer TA suggest 7.50 as the next resistance if the break through 6.50 holds

If this is really a months-long bear market rally where the market is trying to project a real recovery six months out, then we could see FLT come back to test the support around AUD $15.75. That would be nice.

 

[wonderrman]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

I attach a 6 month chart. There is still some choppy resistence between $8 and $10. There is negative divergence there though but this could be void if the market continues to remain bullish. The stock should countinue to rise as money returns to the lower end of the market.

I think there a more better technical stocks out there, especially the ones that are mentioned in the potential break out thread because most mentioned don't have a lot of overhanging resistence.

Wonder.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: FLT - Flight Centre

Another strong day. Up 2.2%, on average volume, closing very close to its daily high. This confirms the break of $6.50 as being genuine and hopefully it can close above $7 tomorrow