Fib Retrace and other pullback trades

[lukeaye]

Hi guys,

What im excited about on this chart, is the last four bars and the volume associated with it. i dont usually try and predict swing points, but this chart is screaming at me to buy.

My entry was at 21.11, my stop loss is at 20.40 based on s/r. my exit strategy is a swing low stop.

My initial profit target is $25. I expect to see a real explosive move to the upside either tomorrow or the next day. i really think its going to be tomorrow though, based on my volume, range analysis.

But now that ive said it, it probably wont happen! you know how it goes!

i usually wait for a next bar confirmation, but given the tight stop im able to run i have decided to run with it.

 

[lukeaye]

o and here is my chart

 

[skc]

skc,

what signs do you look for of a turn around? Would you prefer an immediate V shape reversal, consolidation etc? I notice you have the parabolic SAR on your chart, do you use this for entries/stops also? Seems to be a bit of increase in volume on the last couple down days, would that be of concern?

cheers,
shaun

The end of the run of red bars, and end of the lower daily high would be a must for starters. The sign of a pivot low would also make sense.

I am no expert in reading the volume so no comment on that front.

I use para SAR as a guide only.

It is very possible that prices keep drifting lower, reaches ~$20.40, trigger everyone's stops (because it's so obvious) and forms a blow off low. That would be a good buy then.

Hi guys,

What im excited about on this chart, is the last four bars and the volume associated with it. i dont usually try and predict swing points, but this chart is screaming at me to buy.

My entry was at 21.11, my stop loss is at 20.40 based on s/r. my exit strategy is a swing low stop.

My initial profit target is $25. I expect to see a real explosive move to the upside either tomorrow or the next day. i really think its going to be tomorrow though, based on my volume, range analysis.

But now that ive said it, it probably wont happen! you know how it goes!

i usually wait for a next bar confirmation, but given the tight stop im able to run i have decided to run with it.

That's aggressive. Good luck with the trade.

I haven't actually decide to trade this yet. The gap on 1 Oct might be closed and price may resume downward from there. My stop entry would be ~$22.5 but even that isn't perfect confirmation that gap close - reverse won't happen. My target would be $30 so the R:R is still there.

I assume Luke you could just go breakeven if that's the case.

I also see no imminent signs of scrap prices turning around. Although I appreciate the often dislocation between fundamental drivers and share price.

 

[lukeaye]

it is very possible that prices keep drifting lower, reaches ~$20.40, trigger everyone's stops (because it's so obvious) and forms a blow off low. That would be a good buy then.

That's aggressive. Good luck with the trade.

I haven't actually decide to trade this yet. The gap on 1 Oct might be closed and price may resume downward from there. My stop entry would be ~$22.5 but even that isn't perfect confirmation that gap close - reverse won't happen. My target would be $30 so the R:R is still there.

I assume Luke you could just go breakeven if that's the case.

I also see no imminent signs of scrap prices turning around. Although I appreciate the often dislocation between fundamental drivers and share price.

Yeah i totally agree with you skc, it is an obvious stop out point. and what you have just said, is a very likely scenario.

Well the scrap prices have been absolutely hammered, i agree, but its from this extreme selling that extreme buying may now occur.

I dont usually execute such bottom picking strategies as this, but my volume spread analysis is telling me to buy, so i am following it!

I will run the stop back just under breakeven though, because any reversal from here could see that 20.40 and lower hit pretty easily as you said

 

[johnnyg]

Some good discussion. I like skc think SGM's got potential, but for myself I would wait to see some signs of strength returning.

I feel there is definitely someone happy to take stock on these high volume days, but I just wonder the selling has finished?

 

[lukeaye]

Hi johhnyg,

Yeah i think skc's approach is prob more sensible, and has a higher probabilty,

i just thought id be a bit more aggressive the trade was giving me pretty good R/R.

And my analysis yesterday told me that those large volume small spread days were an indication of short supply and new demand comming in. So far todays move has complied well with the analysis. But the move will need to continue strong tomorrow.

 

[skc]

I like skc think SGM's got potential, but for myself I would wait to see some signs of strength returning.

I feel there is definitely someone happy to take stock on these high volume days, but I just wonder the selling has finished?

Today's bar may be the turnaround. Up ~3%...

Here's another potential setup: MEO

3 wave retracement to ~32% of last leg in a strong trend. Held up well at pyschological 50c level. The decline was sharp and has been only 3 weeks against the uptrend of ~5 months. So the dotted lines are what may happen. If it actually pans out that way it would be a minor miracle.

 

[lukeaye]

Yeah i wouldnt be entering that anytime soon. obeyed 50% level well though.

that stock has had an awesome run. needs a big a-b-c correction

agree with your chart to some extent

 

[Boggo]

Been having a play on the retracements with a few of the bigger stocks using ASX CFD's.

NWS example (click to expand)

 

[lukeaye]

nice chart boggo, could have told me about that earlier!

Ive never really followed that stock, wouldnt know the first thing about it,

looks like a good setup though

 

[Boggo]

nice chart boggo, could have told me about that earlier!

There ya go, just to rub it in

 

[skc]

There ya go, just to rub it in

Some street rumours on AMC might generate the next leg up. Let's see.

Chart for today... COF

3 wave retracement into 50-62% zone, pyschological $2 mark approaching. The volume trend not textbook however. This stock can be quite thin and sizable spread...

 

[lukeaye]

Skc, have also got this one in my watchlist.

I was looking at it two days ago, on its high volume at what i thought to be "support" but i was waiting for a lower spread bar up, on lighter volume, didnt occur. although now it looks very encouraging, i will buy tomorrow if criteria is satisfied.

 

[skc]

Skc, have also got this one in my watchlist.

I was looking at it two days ago, on its high volume at what i thought to be "support" but i was waiting for a lower spread bar up, on lighter volume, didnt occur. although now it looks very encouraging, i will buy tomorrow if criteria is satisfied.

May be we should swap watchlists

Still quite thin even on those high volume days... It went ex-div on 12 Oct for 4.5c, probably explains the longer bar and higher volume.

Yielding 4.5% while growing EPS, one could probably buy on fundamentals alone.

 

[lukeaye]

May be we should swap watchlists

Still quite thin even on those high volume days... It went ex-div on 12 Oct for 4.5c, probably explains the longer bar and higher volume.

Yielding 4.5% while growing EPS, one could probably buy on fundamentals alone.

Yeah thats what i like to see though. those thin days show me strong accumulation. The only thing i dont like, is todays price action, low volume and small spread. does this mean we have run out of buyers? or sellers? tomorrows price action will reveal, and if its moving up im gonna be all over it. Gives fairly good R/R as well dont you think

 

[Boggo]

Sometimes the weekly chart gives a better view, a recent example a few days ago was DEX.

This is the weekly of COF
.

 

[lukeaye]

Sometimes the weekly chart gives a better view, a recent example a few days ago was DEX.

This is the weekly of COF
.

From a weekly perspective the a-b-c decline looks almost complete. c is now equal to a.

It just hasnt been a very big decline

 

[lukeaye]

Heres one i entered today, It isnt textbook but its pretty close.

Once again an aggresive trade, although provides great R/R.

Running very tight stop. noticed some accumulation in the blue highlighted areas.

Stock has been providing some nice micro patterns as well (triangles)

Out of interest anyone end up entering SGM?

 

[skc]

Out of interest anyone end up entering SGM?

Got into SGM yesterday at $21.65. Stop to breakeven now. It should come off clean and not look back.

 

[lukeaye]

50% level acted as support, nice accumulation occuring.

Got confirmation from support, will enter tomorrow