Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

FGE - Forge Group

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zac said:
Looks like its now swinging back up.
Im new to investing but im thinking of dabbling in some swing trading to make a few hundred bucks here and there with the swings of the market.
ie it was at 5.16 not long ago and sell say when it gets above 5.50.

Then the question is what if it kept going down, and to be honest because its below IV it doesnt faze me as i'd have been happy to buy anyway.
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Keep your swing trading and investment separate imo. Trade the chart, or invest on the IV gap.

Not "I will swing trade and if it doesn't work then I will call it an investment". A recipe for trouble imo...
 
skc said:
Keep your swing trading and investment separate imo. Trade the chart, or invest on the IV gap.

Not "I will swing trade and if it doesn't work then I will call it an investment". A recipe for trouble imo...
Click to expand...

Ah ok, thanks for the heads up.
I think for now until I get a better understanding of 'reading the tape' market depth, course of sales etc I will stick to my value investing and longterm venture.
 
VSntchr said:
Consensus estimates are much higher than 40c based on what I've determined???

Even commsec has 45.6c?

NPAT is looking like being 37 - 40m
this would be EPS of 44.5c - 48c
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I am using Commsec EPS also 45.6 and with a RR of 13 percent get around 7.50 as the IV for FGE.

If it goes down to 5.00 then the MOS would be 50percent which is very attractive. I almost pulled the trigger today when I saw it around 5.20. Anything at current levels looks like a good buy. The fundamentals haven't changed from what I have seen. Still I think it might be prudent to be patient a little bit longer on this one and see if it gets to 5.00.
 
It's not when you buy, it's when you sell! Looking at the chart with hindsight I don't know why I didn't sell when they reached $7 back in April.

I received an email from Lincoln Indicators today. They had a telephone conversation with Chief Financial Officer Andrew Bell and he told them there was no material info that the company was withholding from the market, and that they were tendering like crazy and that the mining boom was only "now beginning to bite" and that he considers the company to still be in a phase of significant growth. So fingers crossed.

Topped up my holding today. Catching falling knifes - eek. Watch out for the big market crash everyone. I'm fully invested! Yikes.
 
I am generally a value investor but also really like the look of this at $5 on a chart. It proved quite strong resistance for a while and should become support in the short term. Dow down 279 overnight so today could be the day to buy more.
 
Contract Award announcement followed by a drop in the SP. Am I missing something here?

-4.81% drop today, any value investors finding good value? It definitely ticks the boxes for me.
 
InvisbleInvestor said:
Contract Award announcement followed by a drop in the SP. Am I missing something here?

-4.81% drop today, any value investors finding good value? It definitely ticks the boxes for me.
Click to expand...

Its funny how a lot of the share market is going lately.
Im noticing some companies I consider really good to be dropping substantially in value.
Seems there's a fair bit of fear in the market at the moment.
Im trying to take advantage and snap up a bargain.
 
FGE hit my target this morning got in just over 5 dollars.

It could well go lower but I am happy with this price.

I also bought MCE Matrix under 7 dollars which again represents pretty good value.

I have plenty of cash left for more bargains in the next week or so.
 
I've been tracking this today and have only seen it drop lower and lower. No point getting in if its going to keep going down. When it begins to rise I'll definitely buy in. But seeing as its down 2.5% today alone, I'm happy to wait.
 
InvisbleInvestor said:
I've been tracking this today and have only seen it drop lower and lower. No point getting in if its going to keep going down. When it begins to rise I'll definitely buy in. But seeing as its down 2.5% today alone, I'm happy to wait.
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topped up more today at $5.01, Wish i had more cash for the spending spree to come:banghead:
 
Good to see a contract win for the African division...~$50m...

That makes a few contract wins this month now...
 
Done a bit of research into FORGE (but not enough)
EPS HY = 25c approx
FGE came out with profit guidance for the second half of the year approx 32c

Therefore, Full year EPS should be clost to about 57c above the estimates at Bell direct of approx 45c.

This puts the company on a p/e of just under 10 & ROE above 30% which is very good. Value would be above $7, & rising.

However, can someone explain to me if FGE has any sustainable competitive advantages? Are they able to raise prices (dont think they can cause they dont choose the price, there have to accept a contract?)

Thanks
Tyler

- Holds CCV & DGX
 
Tyler said:
Done a bit of research into FORGE (but not enough)
EPS HY = 25c approx
FGE came out with profit guidance for the second half of the year approx 32c

Therefore, Full year EPS should be clost to about 57c above the estimates at Bell direct of approx 45c.

This puts the company on a p/e of just under 10 & ROE above 30% which is very good. Value would be above $7, & rising.

However, can someone explain to me if FGE has any sustainable competitive advantages? Are they able to raise prices (dont think they can cause they dont choose the price, there have to accept a contract?)

Thanks
Tyler

- Holds CCV & DGX
Click to expand...

I don't think their moat is as large as, say, Matrix. However they do have their unique Forge Hub Model which can very well let them increase prices. If a client wants all the work completed by one company and not have to use several, I'm sure they would be willing to pay more for it.
 
Has any of the contracts for building mines, gone over budget. I cant find one. Lynas maybe? Looks like forge will become contractor of choice if this continues. With mine development costs increasing, and competitors having cost blowouts on other projects, fge business model will prosper. Soon the majors will be looking to fge to do work for them, on a bigger scale

Does anybody think, fge will try a reserve takeover of clough one day?
 
adds4 said:
Has any of the contracts for building mines, gone over budget. I cant find one. Lynas maybe? Looks like forge will become contractor of choice if this continues. With mine development costs increasing, and competitors having cost blowouts on other projects, fge business model will prosper. Soon the majors will be looking to fge to do work for them, on a bigger scale

Does anybody think, fge will try a reserve takeover of clough one day?
Click to expand...

I am more worried about CLO taking over FGE, they are currently selling their marine assets and have stated a fair slice of their income comes from FGE holdings.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...l-on-marine-unit/story-e6frg906-1226089259711
 

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