FFM - FireFly Metals

[Sean K]

$65m is a lot for four x rigs spinning. Surely that lasts more than the last CR of $52m in March that was supposed to be enough for their planned program, which was surely longer than six months funding.

Last quarter they only spend $9m on exploration and the underground development drive, and had $38m at the end of June. Not sure what they've got in the bank before this CR, but should be $20-30m unless director fees have jumped. So, maybe $80m in the bank after this raise after costs.

These funds are supposed to do another 100K of drilling, lets save that quote for the next CR which will probably be in another 6 months time.

SPP at the same price as the CR which might be good. Got about three weeks to decide on participating so will wait and see what happens between now and then. The next MRE is due in Oct and if copper and the general market go OK, it might be a good deal. Or the market tanks, copper tanks and the SP tanks and might be able to buy on market cheaper.

Will be interesting to see the market response on a benign day. They might think this is a big stamp of confidence by the institutions that this is going somewhere more substantial and it's hardly a discount to the last trading price - 9% discount. And, it's actually a premium to the 15 day VWAP. That's a pretty good outcome.

 

[Sean K]

Touched $0.97 on the re-open. but was bought up pretty quickly. Excellent sign.

If Dr Copper keeps playing the game then I'll probably going full monty in the SPP.

 

[Sean K]

The MRE update this month is going to be interesting. Hopefully not too much baked in. How many extra tonnes and grade is a complete pluck to anyone except the geos working on it with the models. But, an extra 650m with these widths and grades could be a lot.

SP has held up very well considering the 95c CR a few days ago. Probably lucky that a few things have aligned like rate cuts, China stimulus and copper recovering extremely well. Consolidating above a dollar would be nice as a launch pad for the MRE announcement.

 

[Sean K]

Am I the only one dumb enough on ASF to have bought this when it was AUT and then doubled down on the copper play? I think so. This was crap based on the Pickled Bird project.

Got a call from the company today making sure I was going to participate in the cash grab to pay for bonuses.

Looking forward to the divestment of the gold thing and the MRE upgrade. I don't think these things are fully factored in.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like I may not get my full allocation in the SPP with this result, which is a disappointment since the stock's now at $1.10.

$30m wanted for $5m available.... I wonder why they didn't just increase the allocation to way more than $8m. Maybe there's some raising rules I don't know about.

I'll only be getting 33% of what I asked for. :-(

 

[Sean K]

Plucking FFM for the Nov comp. Only because it's held up well after the CR and insanely oversubscribed SPP and they're due for an MRE update in Oct, which I assume will now be early Nov just after the CR settles and this might give it a boost, if it's OK. Another catalyst might be an unusually big stimulus package put forward in China which will give most materials a kick along.

 

[Sean K]

Damn it!! This was supposed to come out on Friday!! And, I only got 33% of the SPP.

I was hoping for over a million tonnes, but this is obviously a bit better than that. Still drilling for another year and two more MRE upgrades to go. At least. I think they might keep drilling till it's closed off at depth, if it ever is.

Out of left field could be a discovery along the way.

 

[finicky]

61.8m @ 1.8% Cu true width
Chickfeed

 

[Sean K]

61.8m @ 1.8% Cu true width
Chickfeed
View attachment 186794

I think there's an expectation that this keeps going at depth. The next exploration drive is going to test it to another 700m, so if it does keep going it's another 30-40% onto the MRE in April 25, maybe.

 

[dyna]

FFM down another 4 % , today ( S. P . currently $ 1.10 ) heading back to the big buck , probably . On similar volume of about 4-5 million a day , seen last month on the way up to $ 1.30 . Didn't last at those lofty heights for long . Still more buyers than sellers and if you can draw anything sensible from that , well , to quote Cary Grant ... " you're a better man than I am , Gunga Din " .

This just ain't looking bullish , somehow . So I guess ....no need to rush .
Best to pause and continue with active surveillance .

 

[Sean K]

FFM down another 4 % , today ( S. P . currently $ 1.10 ) heading back to the big buck , probably . On similar volume of about 4-5 million a day , seen last month on the way up to $ 1.30 . Didn't last at those lofty heights for long . Still more buyers than sellers and if you can draw anything sensible from that , well , to quote Cary Grant ... " you're a better man than I am , Gunga Din " .

This just ain't looking bullish , somehow . So I guess ....no need to rush .
Best to pause and continue with active surveillance .

No, no need to rush. It was getting pretty pricey for what is really an 'explorer' now, even though they've got a mine they could start up straight away. Has suffered at the hands of the copper correction too.

I think what they're going to do over the next 12 months is build up the resource to develop the justification to build a bigger mill for a much bigger throughput. I think it was only doing about 20-30Kt pa when in operation. They might want to build a mill that can produce 100Kt pa. Will all depend on how deep it goes. It might stop where it is and the music will stop.

 

[Sean K]

A chunk of this intersection is in the 'low grade' Foot Wall Zone. Nice.

The VMS looks like it's getting thinner though. I would really prefer that part of the resource to telescope out at depth.

And, fingers crossed they put a hole into the middle of nowhere and pull out something red, or blue.

 

[houtman]

A chunk of this intersection is in the 'low grade' Foot Wall Zone. Nice.

The VMS looks like it's getting thinner though. I would really prefer that part of the resource to telescope out at depth.

And, fingers crossed they put a hole into the middle of nowhere and pull out something red, or blue.

View attachment 189127View attachment 189128
View attachment 189129

Was waiting in line for a couple of cents lower, this announcement has put paid to that.

Jumped in this morning, good management, grades and continuity along with cheap power and infrastructure.

Plenty of cash and they are looking to monetize Pickle Crow.

See how we go.

 

[dyna]

FFM took a bit of a swan dive today as buyers seemed to fall away . S. P. down 8 % to just below the big buck now at 96 cents . Director Steve Parsons sold 5 million shares 3 days ago .
Shares coming out of escrow also , that might have done it , too. ( Only 800 , 000 though . )

 

[Sean K]

This has been a festering turd since the end of October. I was planning on buying a very fast car with the proceeds of this in 2025 but now I'm stuck with the PX200 for a bit longer.

Directors selling to pay for some taxes (yeah, right) didn't help the cause. Poor darts Parsons and co.

Everyone needs to make a living I guess.

No assays received since 10 Dec even though they've got about 400 rigs spinning. Maybe the Canuck chemical engineers go on holidays over Xmas.

 

[Sean K]

I had to switch two of my under 10c stocks in the 2025 comp to something else and picked HCH and this thing.

I have much more confidence that this has a bit more to run due to the ongoing drilling success and two planned MRE upgrades this year. Would be nice if they eventually get to the 100Mt mark but will depend on the VMS zone not getting too much thinner, I guess. That might add up to 2Mt contained CuEq at 2%. Not sure how much of that makes it into a mining plan but even half might make it a 10year 100Kt pa or 20 years at 50Kt.

Still not impressed with directors selling and then giving themselves performance rights, but that's how explorers roll I guess.

Has come off quite a bit since the excitement of last Sep-Nov. I thought the CR price around 95c might have held it up a bit better.

 

[dyna]

The Captain's chart at his # 1939 post looks pretty grim for gold.

This one above looks ......not so bad , I'm thinking . Could it be leveling out , I wonder ? ( Moving average lines look dim , though )

I'm a great one for following the brave , so without much further thought , I bought 10 grand worth of FFM today at 89 cents . Not been in a proper gold miner since that reptile Alan Bond strode the earth . ( North Kalgoolie . What a nightmare with the pommie painter trying to run it / rob it )

Anyway , for better or for worse with the copper , I'm strapped in now for a bit of a wild ride .

 

[dyna]

I think I got into this on the first day of the new year to get used to working with a rarely traded share . ( Only about 1500 trades today ! ) Not safe yet to claim she's attempting to break out of its sideways drift of the past month but.... Green is good , right ? S. P . up over 6 % today to 96+ cents on just over 1.7 ( lousy ) Million shares . Have to get used to that as , chart-wise , it's only traded with any noticeable volume for about , the year just gone .
A fortnight before Xmas there was one day when 10 million FFM shares traded and that's what got me slightly excited about Firefly Metals . I have no doubt this odd stock will quickly get back up to the big buck . Then what ? ..No idea . Thinking to hold for a while to just see where it goes .

The market's not much interested in an explorer such as this but that could change . I'll keep watching .

 

[Sean K]

I think I got into this on the first day of the new year to get used to working with a rarely traded share . ( Only about 1500 trades today ! ) Not safe yet to claim she's attempting to break out of its sideways drift of the past month but.... Green is good , right ? S. P . up over 6 % today to 96+ cents on just over 1.7 ( lousy ) Million shares . Have to get used to that as , chart-wise , it's only traded with any noticeable volume for about , the year just gone .
A fortnight before Xmas there was one day when 10 million FFM shares traded and that's what got me slightly excited about Firefly Metals . I have no doubt this odd stock will quickly get back up to the big buck . Then what ? ..No idea . Thinking to hold for a while to just see where it goes .

The market's not much interested in an explorer such as this but that could change . I'll keep watching .

I think it just responded to copper today.

I anticipate they'll get the resource base up to a certain point this year, do a FS on a restart to show the economics, and then start shopping it around to one of the nearby copper miners and take the money and run. Hopefully a bidding war.

 

[dyna]

" Drill Baby , Drill ! " You 've heard The Donald and Firefly got it straight from the horse's mouth , too .
Four drills on the go , now . Four ! Yippeee ! Market's sort of liking it . S.P. up 5 % to 92 cents today but it goes without saying , on trivial volume . Seems to be lingering .....unable to get to the big buck . Let's see what comes up in all this drillin '....maybe gold !