FFM - FireFly Metals

[Sean K]

$65m is a lot for four x rigs spinning. Surely that lasts more than the last CR of $52m in March that was supposed to be enough for their planned program, which was surely longer than six months funding.

Last quarter they only spend $9m on exploration and the underground development drive, and had $38m at the end of June. Not sure what they've got in the bank before this CR, but should be $20-30m unless director fees have jumped. So, maybe $80m in the bank after this raise after costs.

These funds are supposed to do another 100K of drilling, lets save that quote for the next CR which will probably be in another 6 months time.

SPP at the same price as the CR which might be good. Got about three weeks to decide on participating so will wait and see what happens between now and then. The next MRE is due in Oct and if copper and the general market go OK, it might be a good deal. Or the market tanks, copper tanks and the SP tanks and might be able to buy on market cheaper.

Will be interesting to see the market response on a benign day. They might think this is a big stamp of confidence by the institutions that this is going somewhere more substantial and it's hardly a discount to the last trading price - 9% discount. And, it's actually a premium to the 15 day VWAP. That's a pretty good outcome.

 

[Sean K]

Touched $0.97 on the re-open. but was bought up pretty quickly. Excellent sign.

If Dr Copper keeps playing the game then I'll probably going full monty in the SPP.

 

[Sean K]

The MRE update this month is going to be interesting. Hopefully not too much baked in. How many extra tonnes and grade is a complete pluck to anyone except the geos working on it with the models. But, an extra 650m with these widths and grades could be a lot.

SP has held up very well considering the 95c CR a few days ago. Probably lucky that a few things have aligned like rate cuts, China stimulus and copper recovering extremely well. Consolidating above a dollar would be nice as a launch pad for the MRE announcement.

 

[Sean K]

Am I the only one dumb enough on ASF to have bought this when it was AUT and then doubled down on the copper play? I think so. This was crap based on the Pickled Bird project.

Got a call from the company today making sure I was going to participate in the cash grab to pay for bonuses.

Looking forward to the divestment of the gold thing and the MRE upgrade. I don't think these things are fully factored in.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like I may not get my full allocation in the SPP with this result, which is a disappointment since the stock's now at $1.10.

$30m wanted for $5m available.... I wonder why they didn't just increase the allocation to way more than $8m. Maybe there's some raising rules I don't know about.

I'll only be getting 33% of what I asked for. :-(

 

[Sean K]

Plucking FFM for the Nov comp. Only because it's held up well after the CR and insanely oversubscribed SPP and they're due for an MRE update in Oct, which I assume will now be early Nov just after the CR settles and this might give it a boost, if it's OK. Another catalyst might be an unusually big stimulus package put forward in China which will give most materials a kick along.

 

[Sean K]

Damn it!! This was supposed to come out on Friday!! And, I only got 33% of the SPP.

I was hoping for over a million tonnes, but this is obviously a bit better than that. Still drilling for another year and two more MRE upgrades to go. At least. I think they might keep drilling till it's closed off at depth, if it ever is.

Out of left field could be a discovery along the way.

 

[finicky]

61.8m @ 1.8% Cu true width
Chickfeed

 

[Sean K]

61.8m @ 1.8% Cu true width
Chickfeed
View attachment 186794

I think there's an expectation that this keeps going at depth. The next exploration drive is going to test it to another 700m, so if it does keep going it's another 30-40% onto the MRE in April 25, maybe.

 

[dyna]

FFM down another 4 % , today ( S. P . currently $ 1.10 ) heading back to the big buck , probably . On similar volume of about 4-5 million a day , seen last month on the way up to $ 1.30 . Didn't last at those lofty heights for long . Still more buyers than sellers and if you can draw anything sensible from that , well , to quote Cary Grant ... " you're a better man than I am , Gunga Din " .

This just ain't looking bullish , somehow . So I guess ....no need to rush .
Best to pause and continue with active surveillance .

 

[Sean K]

FFM down another 4 % , today ( S. P . currently $ 1.10 ) heading back to the big buck , probably . On similar volume of about 4-5 million a day , seen last month on the way up to $ 1.30 . Didn't last at those lofty heights for long . Still more buyers than sellers and if you can draw anything sensible from that , well , to quote Cary Grant ... " you're a better man than I am , Gunga Din " .

This just ain't looking bullish , somehow . So I guess ....no need to rush .
Best to pause and continue with active surveillance .

No, no need to rush. It was getting pretty pricey for what is really an 'explorer' now, even though they've got a mine they could start up straight away. Has suffered at the hands of the copper correction too.

I think what they're going to do over the next 12 months is build up the resource to develop the justification to build a bigger mill for a much bigger throughput. I think it was only doing about 20-30Kt pa when in operation. They might want to build a mill that can produce 100Kt pa. Will all depend on how deep it goes. It might stop where it is and the music will stop.