Fat Prophets - Fat Free email stocks

[eddyeagle]

Given that FP have pretty much stopped plugging their shares (mainly bc most have been smashed by over 50%) I thought I would ask you guys if anyone knows what this stock is:

Taken from Money Morning newsletter:

Right now, a little-known Australian company is preparing to unleash a patented new technology... and single-handedly launch an enormously profitable and life-altering global revolution.

If you're clever enough to get in on the story now, before it breaks in 2009, you could pocket $60 for every $10 you put down - every year for next five years.


http://www.portphillippublishing.co...ource=e9aaj906&o=1562646&u=27988633&l=1592451


Anyone got any clues?

 

[alankew]

TZL maybe?

 

[edouardo]

Hi,
I think it must be Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd (CFU)

http://www.cfcl.com.au/

Worth a read and it certainly looks like some action in 2009 with sales ramping up.

Cheers

 

[eddyeagle]

Yeah it is definitely CFU.

Thanks

 

[shag]

guys fat profits r cr#p.
like i stupidly subscribed. i could hardly find one company in their portfolio for resources, which they have been so bullish on this sector, that is above its purchase price. even bhp was lower from yesterdays prices compared to their buy in price yrs back. and this is a 'good' one as virtually all the stocks are down 90percent.
they have barely produced reports over the recent crucial times and today i could not see any buy recommendations in the resources report, when often over the last six months when they were all much higher, they had freqquent buys.
this is obviously only my thoughts and should not be seen as advice...

 

[SenTineL]

Shag, you have to wake up to yourself mate.

No one could have predicted what a snowball effect this financial crisis was going to have across the board.

Yes most resources stock are all battered, what do you expect FP to recommend? Sell everything now and realise a huge loss? The reason a lot of analyst will not recommend anything as a buy now is because there's too much uncertainty still out there, value of companies seems to have gone out the window when related to their share price.

If you are a subscriber you would have read that their recommendations and portfolios are meant to be for the long term, not 6 months or shorter. All this should also be taken into account with your own research and justification for the their research and recommendations

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Shag, you have to wake up to yourself mate.

No one could have predicted what a snowball effect this financial crisis was going to have across the board....

I'm sorry, I can't resist. I hear the "buy and hold for the long term" phrase so often in the media and from the so-called financial analysts and it's a way to protect themselves in times of downturn.

It's a defensive phrase for people who don't understand the market - quite simply they only say "invest" 100% of the time and this works in a bull markets (approx 70% of the time). You need to remember who many of these people are - they work for very large global companies who depend on investments/advertising etc so don't expect them to communicate the "s-s-s-sell" message too often.

One thing's for certain, do your own research and have actions in place (eg stop loss), however very few investors do this.

Too-bad if you have retired or about to retire, the second most common phrase from the same media and analysts is: "it's good for the economy to work for a few more years".

 

[sinner]

you have to wake up to yourself mate.

WAKE UP.

No one could have predicted what a snowball effect this financial crisis was going to have across the board.

Heaps and heaps and heaps of people predicted it. I have a paper trail dating back to 2000 (I like to keep hold of peoples predictions to see who ends up being right).

The fact is, all the people who envisaged the current situation were laughed out of town for being doomsday prophets. Or ignored.

I remember trying to convince my cousin (a rediculously well paid Macquarie Group financial consultant) of the dangers of the sub-prime crisis in 2001. She did not even know what I was referring to. When I tried again to explain to her the magnitude of the situation when Bear Sterns hit the floor, she smirked at me like I was an idiot and claimed (oh it's so amusing now) "the entire sub-prime debacle is contained to less than a fifth of the US real estate market" and how could it ever go wrong.

Thanks to google releasing a copy of their search engine from 2001, you can quickly go to see who was predicting this kind of across-the-board-snowball-effect before most people even knew what sub-prime meant.

Here's a good one:
http://web.archive.org/web/20010410165029/www.cagw.org/mediacenter/newsrel/search/00-03-09.htm

"Our worry is that GSEs could become the savings and loans of the coming decade, with taxpayers getting the bill for a bailout that will make the S&L crisis look like chump change." Citing a report from the American Enterprise Institute, Schatz continued, "If Freddie and Fannie continue their attempts to expand their reach into subprime and jumbo mortgages, there is a real danger of collapse."

Schatz noted the many similarities between the S&Ls of the 1980s and the current state of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: They rely on home mortgages as their predominant investment. They borrow at government-subsidized rates, shielding them from marketplace competition that enforces sound business practices. Like the S&Ls of the 80s, GSEs are dramatically increasing their debt. GSEs are considered by the market to be "too big to fail," with an implicit government guarantee of their solvency. "Now is the time to avert this crisis, before history repeats itself," Schatz concluded.

Or read Fred L. Smith, Jr.'s "Testimony before the House Banking Committee's Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Securities, and Government Sponsored Enterprises."

Or this:
http://web.archive.org/web/20010211134621/www.investmentrarities.com/thebestofdn2.html

This acute supply and demand imbalance led to year over year price increases
of 29% in "wine country" and 34% in the Santa Clara region. Elsewhere, prices
surged 17% in Orange Country, 19% in Northern California, 21% in the San
Diego region, and 34% in Monterey. Clearly, this has developed into a
precarious statewide housing bubble. Amazingly, we hear not a word of
concern about what is a major systemic risk to the U.S. financial
system. And, importantly, the Fed's decision to let the party continue
allows the great California real estate bubble to run to even more
devastating extremes. Who is minding the store? Most unfortunately, this
is a replay of the 80's real estate fiasco but at a much grander scale -
actually the proverbial "mountain versus a molehill" applies. Yet,
amazingly, no one dare say "enough is enough," and instead the
dysfunctional marketplace continues to fund the boom despite the
obviousness of the unsound bubble. Massive credit excess feed asset
inflation and a major misallocation of resources, as the Fed tinkers
with rates. What a fiasco.'

Or this:
http://web.archive.org/web/20021210073250/http://performancecapital.com/Fannie+Mae.htm

The Executive Director of our industry association, NHEMA (link found
in our Resources section) was quoted in today's American Bankers as
saying "Fannie Mae is expanding its mission into areas where it has
virtually no experience, and taxpayers should be prepared for a
bailout that could rival our savings and loan experience," and that
the association predicts that the program will cost Fannie its biggest
losses ever, he said. The outcome, he said, will be that consumers
with credit problems will "be back where they were 25 years ago -- no
access to mortgages or loans at all, other than loan sharks."'

 

[OzWaveGuy]

WAKE UP.



Heaps and heaps and heaps of people predicted it. I have a paper trail dating back to 2000 (I like to keep hold of peoples predictions to see who ends up being right).

Good points Sinner.

Let me add also....In the latest Business Week magazine published on Oct 20th 2008 (pg 36) - there was a relatively small article titled "The watchdogs who saw the Sub-Prime disaster coming-and how they were thwarted by the Banks and Washington"

This article goes into some light detail on how the Banks and the US Gov spurred on inappropriate lending way back in 2003- “Federal Authorities took 50 Sheriffs off the job when the mortgage lending industry was becoming the Wild West” and “Some states including North Carolina and Georgia, passed laws aimed at deterring rash loans only to have federal authorities undercut them.”

Has anyone ever asked themselves why these very same people who signed off on the recent $900B bailout and are the very same people now standing tall singing the "new order" in the global financial markets tune? Ask yourself who benefits?

And right on tune - ANZ CEO Mike Smith in Friday's Australian also referred to a "new order" after the coming financial "Armageddon"

The signs have been there for some time, what's now becoming apparent is those responsible for a large proportion of the lending crisis are formulating new plans for a financial system that many will beg to be implemented at some point in the not so distant future - but who will really benefit?

 

[sinner]

$900Bn is a real nice number you pulled there OWG

Referencing this contrarian article from Oct 10

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/aden_oct102008.html

The bottom line was that in just one week, the Fed spent over $1 trillion to keep things going.

The funny thing is, this line is in reference to the week BEFORE the bailout passed.

So we can add $>1tr (Lehman/AIG/WaMu/etcetc) + $700-900bn (bailout) + everything they are not telling us about + all the foreign capital (mostly from SE Asia) also involved in the bailout (which Singapore investment group is it that now owns a seriously large chunk of Merryl and Goldman?) to a grand sum of $>2tr in less than a MONTH without even knowing what they actually spent.

Luckily, the credit markets are so completely frozen (ignore LIBOR, it's only useful if banks are actually lending to each other instead of lining up at the please Govt can I have some more window) that such measures will not be shown as the hyper-inflationary triggers they are.

Once/if that money goes into the real economy (as my economy lecturer father noted last night) via interbank lending or whatever other mechanism, the USDX will go into free-fall and the yen carry trade will unwind overnight. This. Is. The. Worst. Case. Scenario.

While I am loathe to quote two goldbug/contrarian articles in the same post, I feel the above statement needs some qualifying, so here you go.

From the "Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction" article

http://safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=11502&pv=1

Japanese investors increased their exposure to overseas assets by 59-trillion yen ($566 billion) last year, to a record 610-trillion yen ($5.9 trillion), making Japan the world's largest creditor nation for the 17th straight year. In addition, global speculators borrowed $1.2 trillion worth of Japanese yen, in order to buy higher yielding currencies, commodities, and stocks held abroad.

The "yen carry" trade is profitable while the US-dollar is climbing higher against the yen, and speculative appetites are juiced-up in the global stock markets. But the highly leveraged carry trade goes sour quickly, when the US-dollar is tumbling against the yen. Carry traders are quick to dump their speculative positions in foreign stock markets, when the yen is climbing, to avoid bruising foreign currency losses. When carry traders rush for the exits at the same time, the herd effect can create an avalanche of panic sales on global stock markets.

To put it simply, imagine the overnight unwinding of $5.6tr.

Sorry if this is too far off topic.

 

[SenTineL]

My question still stands - what would you have FP do in these times?
The reports should be read and do your own research as well, that's how I have used them and I have picked a few goldmines. I didn't buy their every recommendation and I didn't wait for them to tell me to sell.

I shouldn't have used such strong words, as I myself cashed a lot of my high profit shares last Christmas, I've held on to some and weathering the negatives at the moment. SO yes it was forseeable a year ago, just not on the scale that has eventuated IMO.

 

[skyQuake]

At least they could have suggested defensive stocks. Eg In 6 months, Forsters has stayed put while the index has fallen 35%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FGL.AX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=^axjo

 

[kagey]

My question still stands - what would you have FP do in these times?
The reports should be read and do your own research as well, that's how I have used them and I have picked a few goldmines. I didn't buy their every recommendation and I didn't wait for them to tell me to sell.

I shouldn't have used such strong words, as I myself cashed a lot of my high profit shares last Christmas, I've held on to some and weathering the negatives at the moment. SO yes it was forseeable a year ago, just not on the scale that has eventuated IMO.

What would I have them do ?
Be honest in their assessments of themselves for a start. Also, they might recommend when to be light weight in the market. One day you will realise that you foresaw the market weakness "a year ago", not FP. So why part with your hard-earned to access poor advice and lack of foresight ? Do you work for them ? That is in fact what you do when you pay for a service. It would be reasonable to get something in return, like what they were selling for instance.

 

[chops_a_must]

Shag, you have to wake up to yourself mate.

No one could have predicted what a snowball effect this financial crisis was going to have across the board.

Yes most resources stock are all battered, what do you expect FP to recommend? Sell everything now and realise a huge loss? The reason a lot of analyst will not recommend anything as a buy now is because there's too much uncertainty still out there, value of companies seems to have gone out the window when related to their share price.

If you are a subscriber you would have read that their recommendations and portfolios are meant to be for the long term, not 6 months or shorter. All this should also be taken into account with your own research and justification for the their research and recommendations

Are they still recommending a buy on VRE?

that's how I have used them and I have picked a few goldmines.

Like Bronzewing and VRE hey?

lol

 

[sutti]

My question still stands - what would you have FP do in these times?
The reports should be read and do your own research as well, that's how I have used them and I have picked a few goldmines.

I don't really like it when people say what do you expect them to do? In most situations your paying between $700 - $1000 to get these crappy newsletters that tell you about stocks.

If they're going to charge people that amount they better make it worth while. They can't just shut up shop because the market is falling apart. They should be finding high quality stocks and recommending them for purchase between a specific price according to their estimate at intrinsic value. If they can't do that they should give people their money back.

That's why I don't like wasting my money on this ****. I subscribe to a few different things that give a good wrap and a bit of commentary on the markets and do my own research on companies.

If they're charging people a hefty fee, there is no excuse for leaving your clients out in the lurk. And if they think they deserve the high fee, why are they not out there making millions in their own right?

 

[inenigma]

I don't really like it when people say what do you expect them to do? In most situations your paying between $700 - $1000 to get these crappy newsletters that tell you about stocks.

If they're going to charge people that amount they better make it worth while. They can't just shut up shop because the market is falling apart. They should be finding high quality stocks and recommending them for purchase between a specific price according to their estimate at intrinsic value. If they can't do that they should give people their money back.

That's why I don't like wasting my money on this ****. I subscribe to a few different things that give a good wrap and a bit of commentary on the markets and do my own research on companies.

If they're charging people a hefty fee, there is no excuse for leaving your clients out in the lurk. And if they think they deserve the high fee, why are they not out there making millions in their own right?

The one thing that I have to give to FP is that they actually have the balls to publish the CR@P that they do. Due to a dear friend re-enacting the Parrot skit (unfortunately playing the part of the parrot himself), his widow has given me his Stock IP. Part of that IP is FP and they are only minor players in ripping off my old mate. The hefty fee he paid for HomeTrader far outweighs the mere $700 odd dollars he paid for Fat Profits. At least Fat Profits can be an amusing read at times............

Shall I say that I'm glad that I didn't get ripped off.....

 

[SenTineL]

I think a lot of subscribers have complained.
The last report indicated that in future they will advise members to lock in profits more regularly rather than their hold and hope approach in the past.
Especially in high risk mining companies.

This is where I've been lucky and have picked a few of their stocks followed them up and sold when I was comfortable for a handsome profit, had I held on to these stocks I would be in big trouble with no signs of recovery. Blue chips might recover and go past their previous high, but I doubt this will happen for a lot of the small high risk mining companies which they've recommended.

Good luck to you all

 

[Tukker]

........The hefty fee he paid for HomeTrader far outweighs the mere $700 odd dollars he paid for Fat Profits. At least Fat Profits can be an amusing read at times............

Shall I say that I'm glad that I didn't get ripped off.....

Yet some of us have earned alot more than we payed for HT education. Sorry about your friend's experience. *Home Trader Schooled*

 

[craig_oneill]

Hey does anyone know if FP is still plugging Salinas??? They were one of their most recommened stocks at one stage, are they better value now???

 

[eddyeagle]

Hi Craig,

Obviously the oil price has plummeted and thus FP are not plugging oil stocks like they were doing 12 months ago.

They havent covered Salinas since November but it remains in their portfolio.