FAR - FAR Limited

[wildmanchris]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I think Paul's following Astronomy - a few people that deal with my work do it. Very hard core stuff if you dont know it, but they have some success with it. I might be wrong though........

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Paul's discussed the way he does analysis extensively in the past - it's worth doing some searching (though I can't remember if it was here or at an old forum - try looking for yogi-in-oz).

If you don't have any luck, feel free to start a new thread on Paul's astroanalysis - I'm sure many people have the same questions you do.

In the mean time, lets keep this thread about FAR as much as possible.

Drilling announcements tend to surface about once a week, so I wouldn't be surprised if the market gets updated tomorrow.

 

[JTLP]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

FAR have been updated, but when will actual results be known?
When I saw the news ann I was hoping for a 3 in one (US, China + Senegal) :

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

1) Beibu Gulf, Offshore China, follow up exploration program to last years success, success at any one of the 4 well program would add 4c to FAR's sp

Given the current rate of drilling (500m's a day) we should know if there's oil present within the next few days

I am really confused with the progress being made at Beibu,

Over the first 24hrs they progressed 500m's, yet over the last few days only a further 300m's was drilled,

Confused??????????

 

[bigt]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Current operations are BOP testing - I thought BOPs were only used on producing wells? (note, I'm no expert on oil drilling).

 

[jtb]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Current operations are BOP testing - I thought BOPs were only used on producing wells? (note, I'm no expert on oil drilling).

Hey big,

Got to test the integrity of your blow off protector before proceeding or she may fail when required.

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

A new article is available on the FAR website.

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Petroleum magazine gulf coast article_Nov 07.pdf

 

[stu_lee44]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Hi guys,did you see the 2m sell order@14c this morning? Is there any substantial holder who are selling?Hope it's bited soon.

 

[fodder-oz]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Hope this one goes back up a bit soon. I'm wishing I bought at 14c rather then 15 a week ago.

Any further news on drilling expected soon? I guess the last report wasn't all that positive but I guess this is more a longer term hold then short term, I'm thinking..

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Hi guys,did you see the 2m sell order@14c this morning? Is there any substantial holder who are selling?Hope it's bited soon.

Hmm I didn't see that, but I have seen a few big sells, it could be traders getting out, or it could be a major holder selling, with the only explanation being what Rub suggested, a placement to mates at a samll discount, say 13c, I really hope not as the company does not need cash at the moment.

This run up looks very similar to the last one, which was a prelude to a "mates rates" deal to raise some more money.

Doc you've watched this longer than I have, what do you make of the big sells?

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Doc you've watched this longer than I have, what do you make of the big sells?

Historically, FAR has promised a lot (Eagle, Welder, SGT, Eagle, Kicker, CB and now SGT again) and to date it has consistently fallen short of those promises. As a result, I think there are a lot of stale bulls looking for a leg out at a reasonable price (I personally know know of a few). I might fall into that bucket too - despite having very interesting prospects the opportunity cost of my holding continues to mount. I'm well in the green, but I don't think the return I've received to date has been commensurate to the risk relative to the market.

The alternative is that it's being played by Evolution, but I've got my tin foil hat on at the moment, so I can't hear the voices right now

 

[jtb]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Historically, FAR has promised a lot (Eagle, Welder, SGT, Eagle, Kicker, CB and now SGT again) and to date it has consistently fallen short of those promises. As a result, I think there are a lot of stale bulls looking for a leg out at a reasonable price (I personally know know of a few). I might fall into that bucket too - despite having very interesting prospects the opportunity cost of my holding continues to mount. I'm well in the green, but I don't think the return I've received to date has been commensurate to the risk relative to the market.

Amen Doc,

I bit the bullet and bailed in June.
Considering that in early 2006 I was buying CVN @ 3c and FAR @ 11-12c (and held through the BG spike because thats the kind of guy I am) after 18 months 16.5c was nothing to get too excited about.
I don't like their business plan (is it a plan or is it just lack of ability) and started to get the vibe that I may be stuck with another VPE
Just glad I bailed pre-consolidation @ 26c (equivalent) on VPE (after buying @40c).

Eagle..............

The emerging wave of nationalisation we are seeing in oil resources combined with the let down in Mauritania was enough to keep me wary of Senegal.

 

[kiwi]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I was a holder of Hardman from 1996 through to 2001. The FAR story is very similar except FAR has had more minor success than Hardman ever had prior to the start of Mauritainia drilling. With Hardman the movement in share price was on the anticipation of drilling at Mauriatinia only. With FAR the movement in Share price appears to be on minor discoveries (Beibu) so far. I am not convinced that the market has built in any anticipation of Senegal yet. That may come when the 3D results are published and we may see some significant and sustained price movements unless current drilling produces positive results. I would think that that would be the best time for any capital raising (I seem to recall a rights issue of 1 for 3 at 30 cents in 2000 at Hardman prior to drilling in 2001.)

"When Kiwis emigrate to Australia the IQ of both nations increases" Rob Muldoon

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Hey guys,

Still no updates from FAR re Senegal and the Chinese program is going alot slower than I thought but at least we know we can can expect news soon from FAR as it has some much happening

From my previous calculations I was expecting an update at the SGT gas well by the 10th which was Thursday, like the Chinese program it may be running a few days behind schedule,

The deep target does offer alot of upside ( $1 approx )

Waiting patiently

South Gross Tete US, there are 2 components to this well, the shallow target which would add 2-5c to FAR's SP value depending on the level of Gas and Oil present and the deeper component which could add $1+ to FAR's value

This well has been drilling for sometime and should yield a result by the 10th of January according to my calculations

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I don't think the Chinese program is behind schedule - I'd expect something from there in a couple of days.

As for Senegal, Colin said some time Q1 this year.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Well I just had a good phone call from the broker,

It turns out that some results were recieved for the SGT well but haven't been anounced by FAR yet,

They were announced by FAR's JV partner AMU (see the ann at 10am or something)

Apparantly there have been gas shows while drilling at around the 12,000 foot deep level,

While this is still preliminary what it does do in my opinion is upgrade the prospectivity of the deeper (more important to FAR) target as this holds a potential $1+ value to FAR

The shallow target only holds a few cents of value to both FAR and AMU and thus didn't have much of an impact on AMU, however as I said it makes the deeper target look alot more plausible which will be company maker for FAR,

I'm unsure why FAR has not released the results yet , I'm going to try and call them

Below is an extract from AMU's ann today, note the South Gross Tete target (SGT) is being targeted by the Schwing well

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

For those keeping track of projects other than Senegal, China and SGT, this came out today from Emerald on Stokes Bay.

A recent JV meeting discussed the areal extent of the structure intersected by the Stokes Bay 1 well which could still have significant gas and condensate resources. Pressure gradient studies indicate that the Nullara reefal carbonates could be hydrocarbonbearing. So far no actual indigenous formations fluid has been recovered, only drilling fluids which invaded the formation while drilling.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Hey Doc,

I thought Stokes Bay was done and dusted, but it appears I may have been too hasty,

So at the present FAR is working on the following fronts

1. Beibu Gulf China: 3-4 Exploration Wildcats to follow up on discovery field mafe last year, well 1 under way, potential 4c value per well to FAR

2. SGT/Schwing: A shallow + deep gas target, so far AMU has reported early signs of Gas at the shallow parts which bodes well for the deeper target which holds potential $1+ value to FAR

3. Sengal: 3D Siesmic reinterpreation results, target sizes estimated at 400M bls - 1Billion Barrels, results are overdue, re-rated should occur on the back of the results

4. Canada: Farm out activities for the Canadian prospects

5. Aust: Follow up Canning Basin work, ie Stokes Bay testing

Anything else I have missed?

I like companies that have many potential pay off events underway

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I suspect the value of Nullara is mostly to ARQ with their large holding in the Northern Canning. I suspect the formation will need to be re-drilled which isn't likely to happen for sometime.

The dark horse is that it may start flowing formation fluids when testing continues. Who knows what goes on at that depth when I damaged formation is shut in for so long.

You're missing the seismic shoot at NE Waller. The seismic has been shot and results are likely to be out prior to a North American Petroleum Expo (I forget the name - I've not had a coffee yet this morning) in early February which they'll probably use to farm out prospects.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Hey Doc,

I dug up some info the NE Waller prospect lloks like its another GAS play, but being in the US with record Gas prices, I guess that's a good thing




Primary objectives are multiple normally pressured prolific Eocene sands in structural traps. The area to be evaluated with 3D seismic is on depositional strike with several nearby fields which have produced over a quarter trillion cubic feet of gas and over thirty million barrels of liquids. Although targeting natural gas, most of the sands in this trend are condensate rich.Additional objectives comprise highly productive Miocene, Oligocene and Upper Eocene sands. These sands have produced primarily from stratigraphic traps. A field on trend has produced almost 30 million barrels of liquids and 20 billion cubic feet of gas from this section. These shallow sands are especially prone to displaying 3D amplitude anomalies.
Deeper potential is also present in a number of high risk – high potential objectives which lie beneath the Eocene section.
The Operator has reported nearby activity where Newfield is drilling a 16,500 foot test approximately 4.5 miles from the survey’s boundary.

The purpose of the 3D program will be to locate optimal drill sites from which the sizeable hydrocarbon potential of the play area may be tested. Potential reserves in excess of 50 BCFE from future exploration drilling, from the primary objectives alone, are anticipated.