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Exhausted Lemmings?

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Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus

Joined
17 January 2007
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It's always interesting to watch the market in action on an intraminute timescale, especially when the Lemming crowd come out to play. You can pick a stock where the fundamentals have changed very little from the last announcement yet the share price takes on a life of it's own based on herd mentality, greed or rumour?. Even more so when it's pushing the all time high record into blue sky.

For example, watching JBH today. Some brave Lemmings came out to chase the price to about $13.33 before reality stepped in and a sharp sell off ensued, but as a true test of bullish sentiment regained some of the loss to finish strongly.

Someone has done their sums and seem to think that the forward P/E's seem to justify the current record high sp, even with a current P/E of around 35. This cycle looks close to topping, looking a bit parabolic, maybe a short coming up.
 
How can you say the cycle looks close to topping? There are stocks with a P/E of 50, 75 and even over 100 that can't stop.

CSL has a P/E of 35.6, WorleyParsons 38, yet they've been flogging upwards since it reported last season (and consolidated in the sub-prime debacle). Apple has a P/E of 45, Google 52, yet they're all surging through into blue skies.
 
Yep because most of these investors are in fairy land. Follow this crowd at your peril. Do your own research and survive. A p/e of of $100 means it will take 100 years to get your money back if you live that long.
 
Once in a while a day like today comes along with lot's of opportunities for contrarian trading.
Always on the look out for the 'waterfall' set up - pronounced sell-off followed by cautious rebound.
Took a few longs on gold and XJO at the base of their respective waterfalls, so jagged some lunch money.

Also took an long entry on ZFX (14.93), both from oversold intraday and t/o potential aspects.

Got stopped out of my 'set n forget' XJO short trade (6690) last night - doh. Missed it by that much!
Last one out turn the light's off :D
 
Ditched ZFX, for 5c loss, just lost all momentum in the afternoon sell off. Still the t/o possibility?

Long gold again on this morning's sell off.
 
Back into this bloggy thingy for those that lurk in these things.

New trades yesterday

- BSL 5K @ 2.20 - simply back to levels not seen for X years, div to match
- spot gold cfd 2 mini's @ 905 - gold price velocity seems to have slowed, maybe a tradeable bounce here

Still, the US unemployed ranks are going parabolic, maybe Oz will do the same, for many years to come so not yet for boots n all long?
 
Closed the BSL for 10c and the gold position stopped out just now at 933. Looking for a big sell off today & Monday, maybe some tasty candidates about 11am Monday?
 
Hi UF, good to see some live trades in here. Always interesting to watch. Cheers, SK
 
Howdy kennas,
Wow, somebody actually reads these things.

Closed the BSL today @ 235, maybe a little bit more in it, but it was never an investment, just a trade.

TLS holding - looking for it to be allowed back in to the NBN & re rating, or some other form of involvement?

Looking at agricultural stocks like AAC & FCL for some bottom fishing? I recall you are doing some bottom fishing yourself?
 
Have been catching knives only, not bottom fishing yet. The panic selloffs have been easy fish imo. Looking to a final capitulation soon for some longer term buy and hopes.
 
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