Id be interested in your numbers.
Just on a curiosity thing though if you feel inclined you can private mail me if thats better.
Tech maybe I should do another thread?? with a month or so of trading to show my 'numbers'. Off for a months hols in a few weeks so maybe when I'm back and into the swing again.
If you have a record of all trades then you have a very rudimentary testing of the way you trade.
You will have from these trades numbers.
If you wish to invest a few $s and the time to record every trade STATOR portfolio organiser is an excellent tool to run dozens of portfolios which you can enter and exit as you wish---it will automatically update each day and spit out ALL the numbers you ever need to determine how your systems/or method of trading is performing.
http://www.stator-afm.com/
Twiddle if you are using NT for your trading you already have all the stats you need to work out where you stand. If you have done a couple of 100 trades you would have a very good idea of how your approach is working and what can be improved.
Twiddle you need to sort out a common method, approach or theme to your trades otherwise you sound like your on the 38 step program.
If you haven't an outline of what a good approach to the day is or a basic set up then as you have stated you have no metrics to measure and therefor nothing to improve.
Can you describe the trades you take? Or how you generate ideas to act on?
I would say the first thing to work on is finding the common pattern/chart setup of your trades. And testing the range predictability and various changes to that pattern.
If what you are trading has a repeated pattern then you should also learn what type of ranges are available as targets. You may find that if there is a pattern there you shouldn't wait for the entry but step in and get a better R:R. Personally I have never been able to make an approach work that waits for a move before an entry. (not that that means you will not)
'determine your numbers or refer to them' my bet would be that I do more than anyone else around here. Besides the hundreds of test & stats I play with and trading results, how many have collected diaries & trade examples & plans for trade approaches and how it panned out that would be more than this collection below??
this is for this fin year to date
Over the nearly 30 years I have been trading, I was willing to take that bet.
Then you had to add this bit...
TH,
Over the nearly 30 years I have been trading, I was willing to take that bet.
Then you had to add this bit...
I've probably done that this year but in a different format, going through thousands of setups of my simple system, honing, practicing, always trying to improve. To me it is the only way to success, those that believe they can trade successfully by following a couple of signals at night in their spare time, really are kidding themselves.
Twiddle, as TH has already stated, you need to find one thing that seems to work, look over those 45 trades in detail, find something common. Then test it, test it and test it. Refine it test it again. Eventually, before you go crazy, try it in the market with small sums. Go over your results, see if they match the testing, evaluate how you emotionally handled real money on the line.
brty
But really its a huge part of trading that you have to love, the investigation part.
The problem with my current trading and testing is that from a system point of view, it is all discretionary and changes rapidly as I adjust it to what I think the market is doing within a 1 to 10 minute time frame.
What I am yet to work out is, should I continue to try and hone trading in such a way, or move toward a more mechanical system where I am not adjusting things on the fly.
Twiddle,
Trading things like Crude on a 1 min time-frame makes it hard to have a system that is mechanical. IMO you will get better results from trading in a discretionary way.
It will also be very hard to back test a mechanical system properly due to getting enough data to test it on as the contract expires each month.
A mechanical approach is fine on things like stocks (even though I'm yet to be truly convinced it is any better then discretionary trading) but on things like futures on 1 min charts it is probably beyond the resources & skill of most retail traders imo.
Like TH said you probably need to frame your trading a bit more and give each days trading a bit of direction.
The advantage you will have trading futures off 1 min charts though is that you will produce a lot more data in a shorter time-frame which will give you plenty of info to work with, the trick will be learning to use that info effectively to improve your trading.
Cheers nomore4s.
When you say "give each days trading a bit of direction", can you elaborate on that a bit more?
For example do do you mean things like, particular times of the day when things are likely to happen?
For example I have noted the DAX index does something every day at the same time, which is predictable and is good for about 8 - 15 ticks without fail.
Or analysis of the underlying trend with relation to factors that would influence it, and applying that to a strict set of rules that fit within that analysis?
Twiddle you need to sort out a common method, approach or theme to your trades otherwise you sound like you're on the 38 step program.
If you haven't an outline of what a good approach to the day is or a basic set up then as you have stated you have no metrics to measure and therefor nothing to improve.
Can you describe the trades you take? Or how you generate ideas to act on?
30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more
about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and our trading rules.
34. We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had
always dreamed of.
What a woeful list. If thats the path hopeful traders set themselves on I'm glad this game is zero sum.
If you're still on that list after about step 4 my guess is you will be one of the 95% and never get to step 38..................... EVER.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?