Evolution of a (Day)Trader

[Trembling Hand]

Twiddle if you are using NT for your trading you already have all the stats you need to work out where you stand. If you have done a couple of 100 trades you would have a very good idea of how your approach is working and what can be improved.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Id be interested in your numbers.
Just on a curiosity thing though if you feel inclined you can private mail me if thats better.

Tech maybe I should do another thread?? with a month or so of trading to show my 'numbers'. Off for a months hols in a few weeks so maybe when I'm back and into the swing again.

 

[tech/a]

Tech maybe I should do another thread?? with a month or so of trading to show my 'numbers'. Off for a months hols in a few weeks so maybe when I'm back and into the swing again.

OK would be great.

 

[Twiddle]

If you have a record of all trades then you have a very rudimentary testing of the way you trade.
You will have from these trades numbers.

I have a record of every trade in Ninja trader.

The problem with my current trading and testing is that from a system point of view, it is all discretionary and changes rapidly as I adjust it to what I think the market is doing within a 1 to 10 minute time frame. For example, last night I traded for about 3 hours, made about 45 trades, with about 40 winning, and 5 losing. But these were all different, using different trade management strategies for different times when the market was behaving differently.

What I am yet to work out is, should I continue to try and hone trading in such a way, or move toward a more mechanical system where I am not adjusting things on the fly.

I am happy enough with the results I am getting, on those 45 or so trades I made $3,290 before commissions... which by my reasoning is good for 3 hours, but, I really don't know if I could replicate such trading live... and I know I have to work things out in a much more solid way, sticking to a plan.

If you wish to invest a few $s and the time to record every trade STATOR portfolio organiser is an excellent tool to run dozens of portfolios which you can enter and exit as you wish---it will automatically update each day and spit out ALL the numbers you ever need to determine how your systems/or method of trading is performing.

http://www.stator-afm.com/

Thanks I will look into that.

 

[Twiddle]

Twiddle if you are using NT for your trading you already have all the stats you need to work out where you stand. If you have done a couple of 100 trades you would have a very good idea of how your approach is working and what can be improved.

Cheers T/H

I have been through GFC markets CFDs account, my first attempt where I figured out I do not like CFDs for short time frame trading, due to the spread. Then an IG account, which I didn't like because the trading platform was not comprehensive enough, and again was CFDs. Finally ended up with Ninja/Zen fire. Have a good few days (sim) trading now and a few hundred trades.

I have been trying to review each nights trading and improve upon the methodology. The thing is that at the moment I don't really have a methodology as I try and suss out what works and what doesn't. It is evolving over time though.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Twiddle you need to sort out a common method, approach or theme to your trades otherwise you sound like you're on the 38 step program.

If you haven't an outline of what a good approach to the day is or a basic set up then as you have stated you have no metrics to measure and therefor nothing to improve.

Can you describe the trades you take? Or how you generate ideas to act on?

 

[Twiddle]

Twiddle you need to sort out a common method, approach or theme to your trades otherwise you sound like your on the 38 step program.

Agreed, that is why I am here at the mo.

I do feel like I am sorting out a common method, it is growing out of trial and error while I get my head around things and learn.

If you haven't an outline of what a good approach to the day is or a basic set up then as you have stated you have no metrics to measure and therefor nothing to improve.

Can you describe the trades you take? Or how you generate ideas to act on?

K, a basic run down.

I trade 1 to 4 contracts of either CL or DAX 30.

I only trade with trend, but I define trend in quite a low timeframe, as I am trading off a minute chart.

My chart is nearly naked, I have volume, a moving average, and bollinger bands (which I am not sure are useful or not at this point in time)

I only use buy stop, or sell stop orders, and place them on the chart at points where I am confident that if they fill and enter me into the position it is a continuation of a trend.

Initially I was using a fixed stop value in ticks, however lately I have been placing stop at where I feel the trend would be broken if the price reached it, or around support/resistance.
(I am still trying to work out if this is a good idea or not)

If I feel the market is going to trend for a while, I will widen my profit targets, and after 2 targets get hit, I move the stop to breakeven + 1, and just leave it with no worries if it gets stopped out.

If I feel there is quite a bit of quick momentum, I will enter in the direction of trend for a quick scalp with tight targets and stop, additional to any longer term trades I have open.

Trades last around 1 min to 10 mins.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I would say the first thing to work on is finding the common pattern/chart setup of your trades. And testing the range predictability and various changes to that pattern.

If what you are trading has a repeated pattern then you should also learn what type of ranges are available as targets. You may find that if there is a pattern there you shouldn't wait for the entry but step in and get a better R:R. Personally I have never been able to make an approach work that waits for a move before an entry. (not that that means you will not)

 

[Twiddle]

I would say the first thing to work on is finding the common pattern/chart setup of your trades. And testing the range predictability and various changes to that pattern.

If what you are trading has a repeated pattern then you should also learn what type of ranges are available as targets. You may find that if there is a pattern there you shouldn't wait for the entry but step in and get a better R:R. Personally I have never been able to make an approach work that waits for a move before an entry. (not that that means you will not)

Cheers T/H

I will take that under advisement.

 

[brty]

TH,

'determine your numbers or refer to them' my bet would be that I do more than anyone else around here. Besides the hundreds of test & stats I play with and trading results, how many have collected diaries & trade examples & plans for trade approaches and how it panned out that would be more than this collection below??

Over the nearly 30 years I have been trading, I was willing to take that bet.

Then you had to add this bit...

this is for this fin year to date

I've probably done that this year but in a different format, going through thousands of setups of my simple system, honing, practicing, always trying to improve. To me it is the only way to success, those that believe they can trade successfully by following a couple of signals at night in their spare time, really are kidding themselves.

Twiddle, as TH has already stated, you need to find one thing that seems to work, look over those 45 trades in detail, find something common. Then test it, test it and test it. Refine it test it again. Eventually, before you go crazy, try it in the market with small sums. Go over your results, see if they match the testing, evaluate how you emotionally handled real money on the line.

brty

 

[Trembling Hand]

Over the nearly 30 years I have been trading, I was willing to take that bet.

Then you had to add this bit...

hahaha...

Don't feel bad. I'm pretty sure I produce a bit more 'data' trading intraday.

But really its a huge part of trading that you have to love, the investigation part. If you're not intrigued by how the market moves around your ideas and how you trade & cope with it then ya not gonna last. IMO.

 

[Twiddle]

TH,



Over the nearly 30 years I have been trading, I was willing to take that bet.

Then you had to add this bit...



I've probably done that this year but in a different format, going through thousands of setups of my simple system, honing, practicing, always trying to improve. To me it is the only way to success, those that believe they can trade successfully by following a couple of signals at night in their spare time, really are kidding themselves.

Twiddle, as TH has already stated, you need to find one thing that seems to work, look over those 45 trades in detail, find something common. Then test it, test it and test it. Refine it test it again. Eventually, before you go crazy, try it in the market with small sums. Go over your results, see if they match the testing, evaluate how you emotionally handled real money on the line.

brty

Thanks brty, I appreciate the advice.

 

[brty]

TH,

But really its a huge part of trading that you have to love, the investigation part.

I couldn't agree more, we're all very agreeable today.

Just on the original 38 steps of being a trader. I would think that they are pretty close to what 'the average trader' goes through. Of course the average trader is a losing trader.

What this thread has developed into is trying to get those on the 38 step treadmill, off it.

brty

 

[nomore4s]

The problem with my current trading and testing is that from a system point of view, it is all discretionary and changes rapidly as I adjust it to what I think the market is doing within a 1 to 10 minute time frame.

Twiddle,

Trading things like Crude on a 1 min time-frame makes it hard to have a system that is mechanical. IMO you will get better results from trading in a discretionary way.
It will also be very hard to back test a mechanical system properly due to getting enough data to test it on as the contract expires each month.

A mechanical approach is fine on things like stocks (even though I'm yet to be truly convinced it is any better then discretionary trading) but on things like futures on 1 min charts it is probably beyond the resources & skill of most retail traders imo.

What I am yet to work out is, should I continue to try and hone trading in such a way, or move toward a more mechanical system where I am not adjusting things on the fly.

Like TH said you probably need to frame your trading a bit more and give each days trading a bit of direction.

The advantage you will have trading futures off 1 min charts though is that you will produce a lot more data in a shorter time-frame which will give you plenty of info to work with, the trick will be learning to use that info effectively to improve your trading.

 

[Twiddle]

Twiddle,

Trading things like Crude on a 1 min time-frame makes it hard to have a system that is mechanical. IMO you will get better results from trading in a discretionary way.
It will also be very hard to back test a mechanical system properly due to getting enough data to test it on as the contract expires each month.

A mechanical approach is fine on things like stocks (even though I'm yet to be truly convinced it is any better then discretionary trading) but on things like futures on 1 min charts it is probably beyond the resources & skill of most retail traders imo.



Like TH said you probably need to frame your trading a bit more and give each days trading a bit of direction.

The advantage you will have trading futures off 1 min charts though is that you will produce a lot more data in a shorter time-frame which will give you plenty of info to work with, the trick will be learning to use that info effectively to improve your trading.

Cheers nomore4s.

When you say "give each days trading a bit of direction", can you elaborate on that a bit more?

For example do do you mean things like, particular times of the day when things are likely to happen?

For example I have noted the DAX index does something every day at the same time, which is predictable and is good for about 8 - 15 ticks without fail.

Or analysis of the underlying trend with relation to factors that would influence it, and applying that to a strict set of rules that fit within that analysis?

 

[nomore4s]

Cheers nomore4s.

When you say "give each days trading a bit of direction", can you elaborate on that a bit more?

For example do do you mean things like, particular times of the day when things are likely to happen?

For example I have noted the DAX index does something every day at the same time, which is predictable and is good for about 8 - 15 ticks without fail.

Or analysis of the underlying trend with relation to factors that would influence it, and applying that to a strict set of rules that fit within that analysis?

Both really but you need to understand how markets move so you have an idea of what to expect from the market you are trading during that session so you can position yourself to make the most of that sessions trading.

 

[chern]

Twiddle you need to sort out a common method, approach or theme to your trades otherwise you sound like you're on the 38 step program.

If you haven't an outline of what a good approach to the day is or a basic set up then as you have stated you have no metrics to measure and therefor nothing to improve.

Can you describe the trades you take? Or how you generate ideas to act on?

30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.

31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more
about ourselves.

32. We master our methodology and our trading rules.

34. We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us.

35. We continue to learn our lessons.

38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had
always dreamed of.

What a woeful list. If thats the path hopeful traders set themselves on I'm glad this game is zero sum.

If you're still on that list after about step 4 my guess is you will be one of the 95% and never get to step 38..................... EVER.

Hey TH,

those are the few steps that I think I am on right now, does that mean I'm still on the list after step 4 ? Damn... I'd like to get to step 38.. haha..

I do record all of my trades and try to work out what could be better or how I can trade it again in the future.. I am trying to reduce the number of mistakes that I make. Sometimes, it still sucks when my tolerance wears out, and I end up hitting out at the high.

I don't know if this is off topic, but I felt like a changed trader when I started accepting that losing is part of the game and I could not let the fear of losing prevent me from trading well. (sorta like step 31)

Is there something important in the learning process that you would stress on TH? Did you have an A-HA moment in your trading career?