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EU - the Forgotten Market

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Read an excellent article in the Age this morning by Ambrose Evens-Pritchard.
"Europe's on a War footing and it's going to turn the world upside down."

He points out that the USA had an army the size of Belgium before WW2 1.4% defence spending but the huge increase in defence industry 30% ended the Depression and led to Silicon Valley, the internet etc.

Germany and France are proposing to take the Russian frozen assets to kick start their defence industry building hundreds and thousands of drones, tanks and other equipment. Italian car factories converted to munitions etc.

The effect though will be to finally get out of the moribund state of the economy and cause a boom.

This is a financial opportunity for us.

They don't want a false peace with Russia to allow Putin to rebuild. Ukraine doesn't either. There is a danger that Europe could be at war again if Putin decides to strike before the EU has fully mobilised.

I have missed a lot out. Worth reading the article. You need to search for it.
 
they better get a move on.

3 years and the frozen Russian assets haven't been seized. Oligarchs and kleptocrats have sizeable interests in Western Europe.

Germany need to restart their nuclear plants, and wean off Siberian gas.

parasites like Orban (Hungary) and Fico (Slovakia) need to be bypassed.

And debt issuance is going to soar.
 
Knobby22 said:
Read an excellent article in the Age this morning by Ambrose Evens-Pritchard.
"Europe's on a War footing and it's going to turn the world upside down."

He points out that the USA had an army the size of Belgium before WW2 1.4% defence spending but the huge increase in defence industry 30% ended the Depression and led to Silicon Valley, the internet etc.

Germany and France are proposing to take the Russian frozen assets to kick start their defence industry building hundreds and thousands of drones, tanks and other equipment. Italian car factories converted to munitions etc.

The effect though will be to finally get out of the moribund state of the economy and cause a boom.

This is a financial opportunity for us.

They don't want a false peace with Russia to allow Putin to rebuild. Ukraine doesn't either. There is a danger that Europe could be at war again if Putin decides to strike before the EU has fully mobilised.

I have missed a lot out. Worth reading the article. You need to search for it.
Click to expand...
And is that not exactly what Trump suggested they do?
mick
 
mullokintyre said:
And is that not exactly what Trump suggested they do?
mick
Click to expand...
no , it was INCREASE military spending so you can DEFEND yourself against war

but since the EU has basically de-industrialized itself and wasted it's cash reserves on unicorn dreams it will be lucky to be even able to feed itself ( let alone have enough energy to COOK the food it eats )

but it is Europe they are always trying to invade somebody somewhere ( South America , North America ,Africa Asia , those poor little islands in the Pacific )

and BTW Belgium can easily double it's army , put all the bureaucrats residing there in uniform give them the weapon they understand best ( a sharpened pencil ) and let them loose ( at the worst Belgium productivity will be ... unhindered ) no extra spending needed
 
Dona Ferentes said:
they better get a move on.

3 years and the frozen Russian assets haven't been seized. Oligarchs and kleptocrats have sizeable interests in Western Europe.

Germany need to restart their nuclear plants, and wean off Siberian gas.

parasites like Orban (Hungary) and Fico (Slovakia) need to be bypassed.

And debt issuance is going to soar.
Click to expand...
Visit Europe: not a chance, all the wealth generating persons are taxed to death and leaving or dodging, only public and mandated seized money will be silly enough to get into these schemes:
There are more death in Europe each day from their own invader hordes than there are civilian deaths in Ukraine, and every year, these new invaders coming are more numerous than the whole of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine;
The story of the bad wolf Putin is a bit weak for Europeans in the street vs the real world;
The EU is a Rome in its later day, more weapons there will be more weapon to slaughter the natives, as is already the case with Ukraine shipments diverted and weekly grenade, RPG and machine guns slaughters..
@Dona Ferentes , you really need to spend 3 months in today's Europe, and not on a cruise ship;-) to realise the extent of the rort.
Putin is not a saint and could be dangerous for Poland/Turkey and the balts but for western europe, the enemy is within and in the EU dictatorship
A EU Neronic caricature it is now
Feel free to invest, trading could be good but structurally, it is fXcked
All Vance speech is sadly accurate
 
qldfrog said:
Visit Europe: not a chance, all the wealth generating persons are taxed to death and leaving or dodging, only public and mandated seized money will be silly enough to get into these schemes:
There are more death in Europe each day from their own invader hordes than there are civilian deaths in Ukraine, and every year, these new invaders coming are more numerous than the whole of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine;
The story of the bad wolf Putin is a bit weak for Europeans in the street vs the real world;
The EU is a Rome in its later day, more weapons there will be more weapon to slaughter the natives, as is already the case with Ukraine shipments diverted and weekly grenade, RPG and machine guns slaughters..
@Dona Ferentes , you really need to spend 3 months in today's Europe, and not on a cruise ship;-) to realise the extent of the rort.
Putin is not a saint and could be dangerous for Poland/Turkey and the balts but for western europe, the enemy is within and in the EU dictatorship
A EU Neronic caricature it is now
Feel free to invest, trading could be good but structurally, it is fXcked
All Vance speech is sadly accurate
Click to expand...
thanks pal. never been on a cruise ship
 
The market obviously sees the Chancellor having to borrow some serious money from the players for this increase in war/industrial production tariff game.
Mick
1741573801140.png
 
it seems Germany has been trained so dutifully to hate its history that they want to commit suicide at every turn of the more recent history:
#The greens/watermelons,
#the nuclear plants closure,
#the Merkel treason and "Syrian" invasion..many of them not Syrian..Now a freed syria , with the religion of peace in charge there, any non muslim is getting ethnically cleanse lately, usually with a bullet..no opening the borders for them? ...
Then
# the Russian gas disaster /Ukraine
and now that...:speechless:
Unless you export , weapon manufacturing is not exactly a wealth creating at the scale of a country ...unless you use them to steal from the neighbours...USA/Russia model that China is waiting to follow...

If following this latest fad or rearmament economic boost fairytale:
So who are they going to sell these new weapons from assembly lines replacing the ICE cars and machinery that are busting business there for the last 3 years?
And who would be crazy enough to buy these bonds outside the EU.
And is it not a sugn to get worried about investing in EU shares fearing taxation and control ?
Not for me, except maybe in trading in out
 
European debt is sitting, on average for the arera, at around 88% of GDP according to Eurostat
1741724309803.png



So now, having maxed out the family credit card, they need a new source of funding for the refinancing of their neglected military muscles.
The new plan is to raid private savings.
I have no doubt this will work really well.
Mick

1741724590097.png
 
qldfrog said:
My trend forecast: Poland and Turkey...
We should invest accordingly
Click to expand...
Not sure about either of them.
Polannds problem is that it keeps going against the EU establishment.
Both Poland and Hungary lost E=U funding because they would not follow the EU "rule of Law" article 7 given their governments are considered far right.
Polish farmers are up in arms against EU Climate Policies .
Poland has also sided with France and Belgium in opposing The Mercosur Trade deal , which is being pushed by Germany.
Poland has also angered the Eu mandarins by joinng a number of other EU countries and suspending Asylum Rights as part of the backlash against unimpeded migration.
The EU mandarins have already forced one back down from Poland over funding, they will do it again until Poland bows to their demands. which will curtail, if not kill Polands growth.
As for Turkeye, although they have had good GDP growth, they have had financial instability with currency swings. stubbornly high inflation and equally high interest rates.
According to Focus Economics exports have been going in the wrong direction, industrial production has crashed over the past four years, have a consistently high trade imbalance, and private consumption has been shrinking.
And then they have an erratic leader with rather grandiose plans about Turkey being a dominant player in the region, and joining Iran , USA EU and Russia in meddling in other countries adding to the civil wars, insurgencies and terrorists groups.
And finally, they could well have been taken to the ICC on genocide charges over their treatment of the native Kurd if that august body had any balls.
Mick.
 
mullokintyre said:
Not sure about either of them.
Polannds problem is that it keeps going against the EU establishment.
Both Poland and Hungary lost E=U funding because they would not follow the EU "rule of Law" article 7 given their governments are considered far right.
Polish farmers are up in arms against EU Climate Policies .
Poland has also sided with France and Belgium in opposing The Mercosur Trade deal , which is being pushed by Germany.
Poland has also angered the Eu mandarins by joinng a number of other EU countries and suspending Asylum Rights as part of the backlash against unimpeded migration.
The EU mandarins have already forced one back down from Poland over funding, they will do it again until Poland bows to their demands. which will curtail, if not kill Polands growth.
As for Turkeye, although they have had good GDP growth, they have had financial instability with currency swings. stubbornly high inflation and equally high interest rates.
According to Focus Economics exports have been going in the wrong direction, industrial production has crashed over the past four years, have a consistently high trade imbalance, and private consumption has been shrinking.
And then they have an erratic leader with rather grandiose plans about Turkey being a dominant player in the region, and joining Iran , USA EU and Russia in meddling in other countries adding to the civil wars, insurgencies and terrorists groups.
And finally, they could well have been taken to the ICC on genocide charges over their treatment of the native Kurd if that august body had any balls.
Mick.
Click to expand...
Their great future is partly due to not following the EU.
After the US decided to destroy Russia, there is only one place left which will not have sharia law within 20y in western europe we can trade with/invest in and it will Poland, which is siding with the US and will take the role the UK had in the last half century.
As for Turkey, yes it is not that great but in the void left there and as long as they can reign their most extremist muslims, they will be the one.
We are talking the next 30y..where do you think israel will be or Greece,Egypt?
The last resistance Hungary is landlocked and aging, Italy even with Meloni do not stand a chance in a muslim globalist EU...
So Turkey Poland will be my long time bets, as is India on the same long term trend.30y and onward
Sadly not as easy as just pushing money to an etf but will try to get a small regional entry.
Anyone visiting or just aware of events/news about France, UK, Germany and the rest of neo fascist EU can not possible see a future there, neither economic or societal let alone a bright one in a 20y window.
 
a few small Aussie outfits hoping to win. Will it happen? Or just unleash the bureaucracy.

The European Commission has selected 47 Strategic Projects to secure and diversify access to raw materials in the EU. The new Strategic Projects mark an important milestone in the implementation of the Critical Raw Material Act, which aims to ensure European extraction, processing and recycling of strategic raw materials meet 10%, 40% and 25% of EU's demand by 2030, respectively. The materials are critical for Europe's defence industry and aerospace industries.

The Strategic Projects are located across 13 EU with 25 projects comprising extraction activities, 24 processing, 10 recycling and 2 substitution of raw materials. The Strategic Projects cover 14 of the 17 strategic raw materials listed in the Critical Raw Materials Act. This includes several projects covering lithium (22 projects), nickel (12 projects), cobalt (10 projects), manganese (7 projects) and graphite (11 projects) which will particularly benefit the EU battery raw material value chain. Other strategic projects involving magnesium (1 project) and tungsten (3 projects) will contribute to the resilience of the EU's defence industry, which relies on the use of these materials.

To become operational, the 47 Strategic Projects have an expected overall capital investment of €22.5 billion. These projects will be able to benefit from coordinated support by the Commission, Member States and financial institutions to become operational, notably regarding access to finance and support to connect with relevant off-takers. In line with The Critical Raw Materials Act, the permit-granting process will not exceed 27 months for extraction projects and 15 months for other projects. Currently, permitting processes can last from five to 10 years. CRMA entered into force on 23 May 2024. The same day, the Commission published a call for submission of proposals for recognition of projects as Strategic Projects with a cut-off date on 22 August 2024. The Commission will soon announce a new call for Strategic Project applications, currently planned for end of summer.

Stéphane Séjourné, the European Commission's Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy says that the domestic supply of raw materials is critical: "At the very start of our most strategic supply chains, are raw materials. They are also indispensable to the decarbonisation of our continent. But Europe currently depends on third countries for many of the raw materials it needs the most. We must increase our own production, diversify our external supply, and make stockpiles. We have now identified 47 new strategic projects that, for the first time, will help us secure our own domestic supply of raw materials. This is a landmark moment for European sovereignty as an industrial powerhouse."

Screenshot_20250401_195053_Chrome~2.jpg
 

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