ERN - Erongo Energy

[Sean K]

Finally failed at 55 support. I think I considered between 50 and 60 to be generally good support but who knows now with the way the market's behaving. Might be an opportunity to pick up the scraps when the dust settles. Whenever that is.

 

[Logique]

I found bigt's comment interesting,
as compared to some larger U stocks it certainly has been behaving strangely. Perhaps it's just that it's more junior, with a low intensity drilling program, but this recent pattern of holding just below 0.60 is bemusing.

I like 0.40 as support, and to be honest, think it's likely to go there. But then again it is prone to do the unexpected.

 

[SGB]

Might be an opportunity to pick up the scraps when the dust settles. Whenever that is.

I think its gonna be one of these stocks that in 2 months time we will all be saying:

Gee I can pick a bottom
or
I knew it !! Why didn't I buy more
or
I wished I hadn't of done that

LOL

SGB

 

[pk_wasp]

Trading Halt this morning, till Wednesday.

More results.

Lets hope better results and no mistakes this time

 

[Go Nuke]

Gee if it isn't good, I cant imagine how much lower the share price will go

I bought in at 58c way back. Perhaps i should set a stop at 45c.
I'm usually optimistic (or try to think that way) though Uranium is NOT the flavour at the moment.

 

[timelord]

Has anyone digested the report yet? The market does not seem to care but seems to be the case for Uranium in general.

 

[Reefer]

Pretty poor opening in Germany suggests they have not been too impressed with the report - down 15.9% to 25 euros. Think we have to just hang in until the market picks up, management aren't announcing any bad news but it would take some extraordinary news to set this market alight.

 

[Go Nuke]

Well down about 20% today!
How *$%@&!ed is that!

Ive been holding since the start of the year..now all Im holding is a loss.

 

[ta2693]

if I was holding ern, I must be very panic now.
I do not know whether that means ppl like me is not long term investor in nature?

 

[Sean K]

Maybe this is undervalued now?

I don't know. I was trading this on technicals and sold out when it broke down through the H&S neck line and obvious uptrend and horizontal support.

I hope it comes back for long term holders, in this environment.

 

[Go Nuke]

Yes well im certainly kicking myself Kennas, though trying to remain positive and using this as a tough learning curve

I guess I was expecting too much in the way of returns and not knowing how to use trailing stop losses meant that Im pretty screwed at the moment Well only on paper I guess.

It picked up nicely by the end of the day, so I guess you could say that if tomorrow is another good day its a Bullish Piercing Pattern {would that be right?}
Though the market is so volitile that I don't know if those patterns really apply at the moment

 

[infinitus]

Hi everybody!

I have read this ERN message board for quite awhile and I want to thank all the people contributing.

I am in ERN on an average of 0.60. My first buy was at 0.95
and I decided to buy more at 0.34. I hope this plays out well

Here is an actuell overview of the market cap of some companys and their reserves (this info was given first a few month ago here on this MB, so I used this Info and updated the market cap):

Uramin (UMN) 58 mio. pound 2609 mio market cap
Forsys (FSY) 50 276
Paladin (PDN) 130 3342
DeepYellow (DYL) 50 350
Bannerman (BMN) 50 (-200) 186
Extract Res. (EXT) ??? 147
A-cap Res (ACB) ??? 101
Xemplar Energy (XE) 10 ???
Omegacorp (OMC) 13 (Takeover for 180 mio)

Erongo 20-40 (conservative estimate) 17 mio

If one calculate an average of reserve and market cap, one get a value in market cap of 20 mio AUD per 1 mio pound (ok, ok: this depends of a lot of other factors. Consider it as food for your mind : )
This could give ERN a market cap of 400-800 mio AUD

And if my theory overestimates the numbers by 50%, we get a market cap of 200-400 mio AUD

At these levels now ERN could have the potential for a 10 bagger at least.

What do you all think?


In the calculation of ERN reserve I used to calculate with a conservative 125ppm.

This gives for Area 1:

800x400x100x2.5x125ppm = 22 mio pounds

If we take the whole area:

1800x1000x30(my guess of average)x2.5x125ppm = 37 mio. pounds


Area 3:

5000x2000x6x2.5x125ppm = 41 mio. pounds (this is only a wild guess)


Best greetings from Frankfurt to all,

Infinitus

 

[infinitus]

Hello,

sorry, in my previous posting it should read ressource instead of reserve.

Than I found newer data of Forsys:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070709/200707090401094001.html?.v=1

Table 1 Summary of Valencia Uranium Mineral Resource, June 2007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Category Cut-off Tonnes U3O8 U3O8
U3O8 (kg/t) (millions) (kg/t) (Mlbs)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Measured 0.06 18.2 0.14 5.6

Indicated 0.06 146.0 0.11 35.8

Total Measured and Indicated 0.06 164.2 0.11 41.4

Inferred 0.06 92.4 0.10 20.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
All tabulated data has been rounded to one decimal place for tonnage and
two decimal places for U3O8 grades.


Table 1 describes a mineral resource (total measured, indicated and inferred) of 62.1 Mlbs U3O8, as compared to the 49.6 Mlbs U3O8 outlined in the PFS which was reported on May 16, 2007, representing an increase of 25% (illustrated in Figures 1 and 2).


For Uramin i got the following data:

http://www.minesite.com/companies/comp_single/company/uramin-inc.html

Namibia: 18.4 mio pounds + 140 mio pounds (inferred mineral ressources)

Central African Republic: 41 mio pounds

South Africa: 32 mio pounds

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-namibia-industry-areva-offers-us25bn-uram-/2007/08/14/2862640.htm

AREVA offers US$2.5bn for UraMin
"Denver-based SRK Consulting is
expected to complete its bankable feasibility study of the Trekkopje
project in the third quarter of 2007. SRK's final resource upgrade,
completed in May, has more than doubled Trekkopje's measured and indicated
resources to 335m tonnes, representing a mineable reserve of 110m lb
(49,900 tonnes) of contained uranium. Some 70% of the ore is within 8
metres of the surface, making open-pit mining feasible, although large
volumes of water will be required by the alkaline heap leaching process to
be used in the plant. Some 15m cu metres/year of water will be required,
and to supply this, UraMin is to construct a large seawater desalination
plant just to the north of Swakopmund at a cost of US$120m-about one-
quarter of Trekkopje's total estimated capital cost-for which a tendering
process is already under way. Trekkopje is expected to operate for ten
years, with an expected 75% recovery rate of uranium and operating costs
of some US$20/lb, less than one-sixth of the current uranium price."

It is late now and I try to recalculate the numbers tomorrow. I should have checked the numbers of ressources befor I calculated the table Maybe someone has newer numbers of the other companies.

Good night or good morning to all,

Infinitus

 

[Go Nuke]

Gee hasn't old Erongo really died in the a*#e!

Not much action at all around these parts. I guess they haven't really come up with anything spectacular of late, in a bear market on Uranium

Perhaps when BMN gets up, it might bring more attention back to the region.

 

[Sean K]

Gee hasn't old Erongo really died in the a*#e!

Pretty much, and I'd like to add a little humour to the thread with the following quotes and charts.

Just for fun.

25 May, ERN sp about $1.00:

Happy to be holding. ....Look at the market cap..still very cheap.

28 May, ERN sp over $1.00 and ECH/FSN $1.60:

Raf this one will do as well or even better than ECH. ECH also have strong management..they have released a steady flow of positive announcements. I hold ECH so of course I want it to continue its upwards run but I do feel Erongo is considerably undervalued. .... I expect further gains ……. I am almost 100% confident …... The companies who did the previous drilling were respected so I think its a gimme.

ECH changed it's name to FSN.

LOL

 

[bigt]

..it sure has died in the rectum, though with results due out any day (late-nov per management) from drilling at some of their large Namibian holdings, and the "nearology" effect from BMN / EXT etc, we may see some positive movement. Sentiment has been smashed to smithereens on this one, though has massive amounts of land in promising regions.

 

[Sean K]

..it sure has died in the rectum, though with results due out any day (late-nov per management) from drilling at some of their large Namibian holdings, and the "nearology" effect from BMN / EXT etc, we may see some positive movement. Sentiment has been smashed to smithereens on this one, though has massive amounts of land in promising regions.

Apologies to any long term holders for poking a stick at this one.

Yes, nearology could have some effect here, and I hope it does. I only originally traded this on the U hype and chart as there were no fundamentals to speak of.

Could be a candidate for a great turn around story if they get it right.

All the best!

 

[Go Nuke]

Apologies to any long term holders for poking a stick at this one.

Yes, nearology could have some effect here, and I hope it does. I only originally traded this on the U hype and chart as there were no fundamentals to speak of.

Could be a candidate for a great turn around story if they get it right.

All the best!

Nah thats alright Kennas

ERN was one of my first buys on my entry into the stock market. I was holding out for my entry point to have doubled in value then sell half...but it didn't quite make it

And of course knowing very little about when to actually SELL a share (I still know little) I have held.
ERN does have a large piece of land and I'm hoping because Im still bullish on Uranium, that it the sp will be revived over time. Though i will have alot twichier finger on the sell button this time, hehe
Perhaps focus more on what the moving averages are telling me.
The problem with ERN is they are sssoooooo slow at getting any drilling done and making announcements.

I must say I was alittle unimpressed with the low excise price of the options that the directors have taken. I'm sure its relevent to where the current share price is, but compared to where it was 6 months ago, I think they should have set the excise price alittle higher.

Anyway.....Its more learning for me i guess. If only I could figure out when to sell

 

[bigt]

ERN...macd just crossing into positive territory...buy: sell ratio at 6: 1

Drilling with 4 rigs, results due any day now. They have historically had some decent hits with the aim to jorc out a low grade,large tonnage resource. Majority of U is close to surface.

Maybe the worm is turning,I think this was heavily oversold and has a lot of upside. Cheers all.

 

[Go Nuke]

For those of you like myself who follow Erongo, I have sent Mr Gasson a email today asking about any results from the latest drilling.

In the last ann they hoped to have some by late November.

I will post his reply when i get one, though like some of us he is probably on holidays.

Gonuke