ERN - Erongo Energy

[Go Nuke]

Some big buyers at 70c

Might see if i can join them.

 

[chris1983]

Once again they are strong on the German exchange even though its only low volume.

Trading at 49 Euro and hitting a high of 50 Euro.

0.49 EUR = 0.803468 AUD

 

[chris1983]

Once again they are strong on the German exchange even though its only low volume.

Trading at 49 Euro and hitting a high of 50 Euro.

0.49 EUR = 0.803468 AUD

Finished at 50 EURO on the German exchange on decent volume.

50.00 EUR = 81.5873 AUD

The Germans clearly see things a lot more clearer than Aussie investors. They should do themselves a favor and just buy on our market.

 

[Reefer]

I agree Chris, must be a way some smart traders can buy heaps on Aussie market each day and sell each night on Frankfurt - the differential between the two markets could produce some handy profits. Increased holdings of both fully paids and options yesterday when the price slipped in early trade and gobbled up my market limits. Still think this will eventually be a beauty!!!

 

[captjohn]

Finished at 50 EURO on the German exchange on decent volume.

50.00 EUR = 81.5873 AUD

The Germans clearly see things a lot more clearer than Aussie investors. They should do themselves a favor and just buy on our market.

Mein Herrs, Maybe Der Bosch need ze AussieTFN(Tax file number) to trade here.. anyway just sold all my EXT (at 11% loss)& now placing orders to top up more ERN & CFE .

 

[Halba]

artyman: Have a happy easter all

Here is some analysis for you all to read

Hi all

Some conservative estimates to look out for in 2007 for ERN after the drill program April 2007. Please refer to the ERN presentation.

Area 1 - A conservative target could be in the range of 10-25million pounds. This is already underpinning the valuation of ERN @ $55m mkt cap fully diluted or so. The market is assuming only 7-8 million pounds of uranium of good quality, rossing style at this price. Anything that errs on the high end of my estimates will result in immediate share price gains. Things to look out for would be obviously better grades/widths than original historic drilling and whether can expand the strike(if drilling continues to find it open for example).

Bear in mind, now at current u prices you only need 10-15million pounds JORC in a good jurisdiction(Africa) to be economic for processing. This would have an inground value(IGV) of about 1billion-1.5billion dollars. A good example of this is Omegacorp(OMC) which is being taken over by Denison and had 13 million pounds (inferred only)

Because Area 1 is the initial focus, and that they only have 1 rig, we could be looking for an inferred estimate from this area, just like Omegacorp(saves extra holes), through confirmatory drilling and through mainly focussing on extensions.

2. Area 2 west anomaly- 1.5km by 1km dub "WEST".
""WEST"" - 1500 by 1000m. If its anything like Area 1 intersections, then this could have a slightly bigger size due to the bigger anomaly ~15-20million pounds.

3. Area 3 5000m by 2000m. Being conservative lets assume that the orebody does not correlate exactly with the massive size of anomaly, but this particular target still appears to be the biggest 15-20 million pounds, 6m thick intersections, if grades prove to be economic?

4. Area 2 South anomaly 4000 by 500m. Similar to the west, roughly ~20million pounds possible. Its quite long in terms of length, but relatively narrow in width. Effectively untested here also.

5. Area 4 - Smaller target than all the rest(in a small square area), possibly 10-15million pounds?

Note: any extensions in strike found by the company/depth extensions will result in a re rating in value. Of course if no economic hits or additional strike extensions are found, this would represent a risk to the company.

Also 5th tenement spitzkoppe is due at any time which has a resource of ~2.6million pounds only(based on historic drilling ,but open).

Mineral sands spinoffs are slated to occur this year and this is hard to value, but as of this stage could be worth a notional 5-10 cents per share

Based on say an initial target of 15million pounds JORC, the market cap at EV/lb $10/lb is $150m. The share price at this would be $2.00. But if we adjust it for risks and assume some more share issues, then we could get down to a conservative risked $1.30 target price based on 10-15million pounds actual JORC and some limited exploration upside. Canadian listed companies with deep pockets like MEGA, Denison, SXR, Uramin, Forsys are all ready to pounce and add "pounds" to their inventories, and if pounds are offerred for only $10/lb EV, then they will buy, and look to produce at over $120/lb. This is because ERN will be priced similar to UKL and BLR i.e. "near term producer" due to location.

 

[chris1983]

Nice post Halba. ERN will bring great rewards. Its already done well. I'm looking forward to their next announcement.

 

[captjohn]

Yes Halba, great analysis....

Yesterday I sold off all my EXT (at a loss) & I can hear chris saying, "I told you so".
Then I immediately loaded up more ERN....@75.5


You & Chris certainly seem acurate with getting into the 'low cap' companies.....add to that inferred resources & it's a potential winner..... like BMN is shaping up to be !

Getting set before drilling starts is the way to go IMO !

Thanx again for the above analysis......in 6 months we'll see how close you are

Happy easter to you all too!!....cheers captjohn

 

[chris1983]

Yes Halba, great analysis....

Yesterday I sold off all my EXT (at a loss) & I can hear chris saying, "I told you so".
Then I immediately loaded up more ERN....@75.5


You & Chris certainly seem acurate with getting into the 'low cap' companies.....add to that inferred resources & it's a potential winner..... like BMN is shaping up to be !

Getting set before drilling starts is the way to go IMO !

Thanx again for the above analysis......in 6 months we'll see how close you are

Happy easter to you all too!!....cheers captjohn

Hey Captjohn. I like EXT..just to let you know. I always had in my mind that they wouldnt rocket up after the share consolidation though..and an entry point after the consolidation would be the best bet. They have raised funds at 80 cents. Its fair to say if they went under 80 they are more than likely a good play. Low 80's a good play also. Share holders have been burnt over and over and over with EXT and have never seen any rewards from the company. They don't do anything to favor the share holders at all so low 70's IMO is a high posibility if they don't put out any good news. I still think they have great prospects on their epl's and the SP will move up eventually.

As for ERN and BMN you know how I feel about the two. They are definate winners IMO. They are winners for me already and I hope anyone who enters now also sees rewards. I think they will. ERN are holding very firm on the German exchange. They went down to 48 EURO ON 6000 volume which is the equivelant of 79 cents. The ask is 51 EURO which is 83.5 cents aussie. I would like to see ERN list on the TSX. The canadians seem to show explorers in Namibia more respect. I have no idea what the costs are with that but I think it would bring a re-rating in SP.

I'm looking to enter an Australian explorer next. Just to have some diversity. I will post on it next week. Of course some people wont like it but I think its a good play. All the best with ERN and BMN.

 

[captjohn]

Hey Captjohn. I like EXT..just to let you know. I always had in my mind that they wouldnt rocket up after the share consolidation though..and an entry point after the consolidation would be the best bet. They have raised funds at 80 cents. Its fair to say if they went under 80 they are more than likely a good play. Low 80's a good play also. Share holders have been burnt over and over and over with EXT and have never seen any rewards from the company. They don't do anything to favor the share holders at all so low 70's IMO is a high posibility if they don't put out any good news. I still think they have great prospects on their epl's and the SP will move up eventually.

As for ERN and BMN you know how I feel about the two. They are definate winners IMO. They are winners for me already and I hope anyone who enters now also sees rewards. I think they will. ERN are holding very firm on the German exchange. They went down to 48 EURO ON 6000 volume which is the equivelant of 79 cents. The ask is 51 EURO which is 83.5 cents aussie. I would like to see ERN list on the TSX. The canadians seem to show explorers in Namibia more respect. I have no idea what the costs are with that but I think it would bring a re-rating in SP.

I'm looking to enter an Australian explorer next. Just to have some diversity. I will post on it next week. Of course some people wont like it but I think its a good play. All the best with ERN and BMN.

Hi Chris, thanx for your explanation ..........please understand tho' that you are not in any way responsible.

I get impatient & tend to use BMN as a 'benchmark' & expect other explorers I invest in to perform as well as BMN is..

AS you know, last year I sold off 15 junior miners cos was going 'crazy' trying to 'trade' 'em all !!........ Plonked all $$ into Bannerman ....& often I felt guilty not diversifying & when I do ....the SP does NOT go up as much as Bannerman......so "Why bother with other companies.."

I know a lot of you guys out there have adopted the share investment theory that ;
1. You must spread your risk by having 10-20 stocks ...(coz if one goes broke you've lost only 5-10% of your dough!!)...& review sp performance every 3 months & sell off accordingly...Fair enough!

However IMO this theory was promoted (& still is) by the big stockbroking firms that want the 'big' commissions on every transaction.
Mum & Pop investors don't know how to do Online trading to get commissions @$30-ish..... so they pay heaps more thru the brokers.

2. When share price increases .... do you sell off half your holding to carry the remainder 'for free'!!...also fair enough!! ..but IMO your selling yourself 'short' because everythings a risk & a gamble especially in the explorers...and I kept my fingers crossed when last year I selected BMN as having the least risk with solid fundamentals....that is, historical drillings with a large potential resource.

BMN ended up being 'ASX "Stock of the Year"..coz it topped the Xmas list for most SP appreciation.

Chris & Halba, I know you guys do a lot of 'behind the scenes' research & very clever at it...& we are all very anxious to read your opinions on the next drilling results from Bannerman ! Hopefully the middle of April !

 

[UraniumLover]

Hey Captjohn. I like EXT..just to let you know. I always had in my mind that they wouldnt rocket up after the share consolidation though..and an entry point after the consolidation would be the best bet. They have raised funds at 80 cents. Its fair to say if they went under 80 they are more than likely a good play. Low 80's a good play also. Share holders have been burnt over and over and over with EXT and have never seen any rewards from the company. They don't do anything to favor the share holders at all so low 70's IMO is a high posibility if they don't put out any good news. I still think they have great prospects on their epl's and the SP will move up eventually.

As for ERN and BMN you know how I feel about the two. They are definate winners IMO. They are winners for me already and I hope anyone who enters now also sees rewards. I think they will. ERN are holding very firm on the German exchange. They went down to 48 EURO ON 6000 volume which is the equivelant of 79 cents. The ask is 51 EURO which is 83.5 cents aussie. I would like to see ERN list on the TSX. The canadians seem to show explorers in Namibia more respect. I have no idea what the costs are with that but I think it would bring a re-rating in SP.

I'm looking to enter an Australian explorer next. Just to have some diversity. I will post on it next week. Of course some people wont like it but I think its a good play. All the best with ERN and BMN.

Hi Chris,
Was curious if you have made your australian expl selection yet.
I wouldn't want to miss the boat judging on today's performance of sector

:jump:

 

[Rafa]

It has to be MTN...

 

[Reefer]

Erongo held it's ground last night in Germany finishing up 3 Euros at 51. Equates to 81c which is slightly above the close here yesterday. Gaining strength.

 

[chris1983]

It has to be MTN...

MTN look great but I decided to buy echelon. ECH. I like trying to find stocks that havnt even started their run yet..it has run a bit but I think it has a long way to go. You can read my post in the echelon thread. BTW erongo are performing well. My mate said that Erongo got a write-up in the Weekend Australian, top 5 best chances of a Uranium mine. Ill ask him if he has it..ill scan it if he does and then I'll post it.

 

[Rafa]

That'll be good to see...

Yeah, MTN is still undervalued, but I'll check out your post on ECH...

 

[nizar]

Alot of sellers in this stock... dunno why though.
Sentiment seems to be lacking a little.
Just needs a big volume day to soak up those sellers..

 

[chris1983]

Alot of sellers in this stock... dunno why though.
Sentiment seems to be lacking a little.
Just needs a big volume day to soak up those sellers..

Erongo are very weird..all the buyers just pull out..and then they come back in taking all the weak holders out. Its done this for quite some time now..but the SP always manages to edge up higher and set higher highs. The chart really isn't pretty though. I dont mind..as long as it continues upwards I'm a believer in this one.

 

[Go Nuke]

Erongo are very weird..all the buyers just pull out..and then they come back in taking all the weak holders out. Its done this for quite some time now..but the SP always manages to edge up higher and set higher highs. The chart really isn't pretty though. I dont mind..as long as it continues upwards I'm a believer in this one.

As am I Chris.
Maybe people keep pulling their money out to invest into the companies with better SP charts at the moment.

I just cant go past the look of that radio metric pic of the area that they are exploring.
I'd be happy to increase my holding with ERN as I believe it has some way to go yet.
Though maybe ERN has a few management issues like BMN {according to Halba}
Your right, the SP chart is pretty up and down compared to others.Though it is starting to take shape now.
I think Im right in seeing a bottom resistance at 73c mark.
Lets see what the future brings
Goodluck all.

 

[nizar]

Closed above 80c for the first time today.
We'll see 2mrw if the market thinks thats significant.

 

[nizar]

Closed above 80c for the first time today.
We'll see 2mrw if the market thinks thats significant.

Bit of movement today.
The laggard in my portfolio, though the depth is looking solid (at this point in time).

Id like to see this one hold above .80 for a few days at least.