EQN - Equinox Minerals

[GreatPig]

Breaking into blue sky territory and pushing up nicely

Bought about 3 weeks ago for $1.01, currently $1.40 as I type.

Just wish I'd bought more...

Cheers,
GP

 

[BSD]

180,000 tonnes of Copper per annum from 2008

Biggest copper mine in Africa

That is $900,000,000 in cash at $2.20 copper

Full DFS completed, mine life >20 years

EPC contracts coming - offtake soon and construction starting 2H 2006

$500m Market Cap, heading for ASX200

Bankers using $1.10 copper in models versus $2.20+ spot

80% insto held and 10% insiders

Tuck these in the draw and forget the short term volatility from the 10% retail float - they are going up.

Best copper play in market

Lumwana is worth $1.80+ on conservative numbers ($1.80Cu 08, $1.40 09 and $1.10 Cu long term). See Sprott $2.20CAD and RBC $1.80CAD vals)

Add Uranium (proven reserves breaking even at $11 pound vs current $30+) and some of the best ground in copper belt and EQN has upside to burn.


Try and find another copper play with completed DFS and >150,000 tonnes pa production

 

[Sodapop]

Yep - She's a good one... I remember grabbing this when it was a $10m Cap. company at ~4.5c back in early 2003... Looked like a goody back then - but just going from strength to strength... Wish i still held from those levels (even considering the 4:1 consol.)... Definitely one of the emerging world class juniors on the ASX - if not the premier one...

I don't hold anymore but still consider EQN (or EQR as it was back in the day) as one of my babies...

 

[BSD]

Touched all time high today.

Good volume on TSX of 2.5m and multiple 200K crossings at $1.40CAD.

Apart from the copper play, many punters are missing the 20 million pounds (9000tonnes) of defined Uranium in the Lumwana project.

A bit less than half of Paladin's Langer Heinrich Project

The original feasibility study assumed 1.5mlbs a year of U costing $11lb. With spot U around $40lb you can see the further upside to the Lumwana story.

Not many Australian U companies have this amount of proven U - let alone being legally allowed to produce now!

400 million pounds (188,000tonnes) of copper per annum (double Oxiana's Prominent Hill) and 1.5 million pounds of uranium production per annum with long mine life 17+.

At spot prices you have almost a billion USD in revenue per annum.

Market cap still below $600mAUD

Sprott of Canada calculates the U can be processed with a $100m plant and gets a $0.48CAD ($0.57AUD) NPV at a 15% discount.

Sprott have a company NPV per share $2.50CAD ($3.00AUD)

Obviously I am long to the gills (!) but am wondering why EQN is still not on the radar in retail Australia.

 

[GreatPig]

Resounding breakout today on good volume.

GP

 

[BSD]

The end of a large sell-order being worked through RBC will see EQN rocket again

6.2 million traded on TSX last night - the seller is running out of steam

With Copper at $6100 tn, Costs at $1800 tn and production at 180,000 tn/pa, around $750,000,000 USD per annum of cash is being generated.

They will pay off their debts in 9 months!

Mine life exceeds 17 years - starts 2008

No more equity needed

Market cap still only ~$500mUSD

More copper than Prominent Hil


Get your space suit out

 

[BSD]

$2.28 close today - up 20%

Plenty more upside to come.

Canadian brokers, Dundee Securities, increasing 12-month target to $3.70CAD ($4.40AUD).

Currently trading at 1.40 times FY08 forecast earnings

Dunno what the graph says, but the fundamentals say "get-set".

 

[ctp6360]

I bought in today at $2.15, I hope today's rise is a continuation of the trend.

 

[BSD]

8 million traded on TSX last night - stock up 7%

Stock thin on the ground on ASX and Huntley re-iterates BUY call.

Copper at $3.60

Should trade through $2.50 today

 

[RichKid]

Nice trend, why didn't I see this before! If only chicken had been on this we would all have known!! How'd you miss this one my feathered friend!?? Only heard of it today thanks to Mark.

Nice trend and volume confirmation as well, right at the end we've seen higher prices and higher volume but that's ended dramatically and we're seeing a strong sell off on increasing volume. Not one to go long on atm imho. Another one of my elementary EW 'efforts', comments welcome, saw GP's early EW work as well, I think this fits in with it, easy one imo, nice even proportions.

Am I to understand EQN isn't producing anything yet? Fits in with the chart if that's the case. What really piqued my interest was the international broker coverage.

 

[markrmau]

Looks like bloodbath on Monday.

I understand production should be coming online 4q07.

 

[$unny]

what happened?

 

[markrmau]

Copper down heavily (eqn has very high leverage to copper). Remember this is about fear and greed, not rationality. So even if you said eqn is will worth $3ps based on long term Cu forecasts, it will still tank.

 

[BSD]

Copper down heavily (eqn has very high leverage to copper). Remember this is about fear and greed, not rationality. So even if you said eqn is will worth $3ps based on long term Cu forecasts, it will still tank.

Very true.

These situations are excellent opportunities for investors with a timeframe of investment suited to waiting for production.

EQN is very easy to value and is a good example of the effect the current shakeout in metals is having on stocks. Shares are now back to where they were when copper was at $2.80.

Using a 2008 production forecast with copper at $2.20 falling to $1.20 long term, USDAUD at $0.80 and discount rate of 12% - gets me an NPV of $3.60 AUD.

27 month copper on the LME can still be sold at $2.80. EQN will soon have to lock-in a portion of the early production at a price like this to finalise the debt package.

Canadian trade rules this stock. We have traded EQN at a premium three sessions this week on the ASX. There has obviously been a big seller on the TSX who has run out last night.

EQN closed up 9.8% at $1.78 CAD ($2.10AUD) on the TSX last night after bottoming at $1.53 CAD ($1.80 AUD).

Note that EQN is very tightly held and is very prone to excessive volatility.

Acorn Capital have tucked away another 11m shares to go to 22m in total. They have been around since the stock was less than $0.40 and know the company very well.

 

[markrmau]

You're right - up big time on the tsx. Very interesting.

 

[RichKid]

Looking at my chart again (post #10), I might have got the March 2006 minor wave IV end wrong, could be the next minor swing low. Happy with the current count though, not much turns on it atm imo, mainly an issue for stop placement once we look at fib levels and the end of this retracement.

 

[MalteseBull]

EQN has a positive announcment today and will do well long term. It shows a similar trend to ABY as well (graph the two together).

Equinox Increases Lumwana Mine Life to 37 Years
Announces Fixed-Price EPC Contract with Ausenco-Bateman JV
Releases Updated Capital Costs and Mandates additional Debt Capacity to include Mining Fleet

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

I can't but help to think EQN is the mustard for today......anybody going to talk me out of buying this one .....@ 1.40 ???? any tragic techies out there?

 

[Sean K]

Doesn't look hot to me.

Just broken 200d ma and support around the $1.50 mark heading south.

Might find help around $1.30-1.35.

 

[56gsa]

Has twice bounced off support @ 1.40, now heading for 1.65 level? If it breaks thru that, could head for 1.80-1.92 range.

Cu is now at same levels as early May when EQN was over $2, although Cu coming off recent top.

Interest today likely to be because of positive U story...