Energy Security

[Sean K]

This channel does some good discussions/debates on security in Europe. This one on energy security. If we thought we had problems with the transition to renewables, the EU is in another league.

 

[Smurf1976]

If we thought we had problems with the transition to renewables, the EU is in another league.

The big problem with most discussion on the subject of energy, and that goes from individuals to governments, is that in the vast majority of cases it's based around ideology and heavy use of the term "I believe....". Facts are either not present or are dismissed.

Renewable, fossil or nuclear - they can all work so long as they're designed to work and built accordingly. Trouble is, pretty much anyone outside the technical side of the industry baulks at designing and building for reliability then becomes the first to complain when it fails.

It's one of those things that's doable but the key is actually doing it.

 

[Investoradam]

The big problem with most discussion on the subject of energy, and that goes from individuals to governments, is that in the vast majority of cases it's based around ideology and heavy use of the term "I believe....". Facts are either not present or are dismissed.

Renewable, fossil or nuclear - they can all work so long as they're designed to work and built accordingly. Trouble is, pretty much anyone outside the technical side of the industry baulks at designing and building for reliability then becomes the first to complain when it fails.

It's one of those things that's doable but the key is actually doing it.

European, Australian & so on politicts are cluttered with fools who believe renewables & other leftist ideologies will work and continue to invest billions of tax payer money in dud ventures and forgetting about energy security and facts

idiots who believe wind turbines and solar will work and are clean! FFS how stupid can society become

 

[Smurf1976]

idiots who believe wind turbines and solar will work and are clean! FFS how stupid can society become

Any decent engineer knows full well that it's possible and that the question is working out the best way to do it then actually doing it. Same with a lot of things - they can be done, the question is the best way to do it.

To say otherwise is akin to someone in 1869 noting that it would never be possible to go to the moon. Their argument being that a steam locomotive running on steel tracks could not get to the moon, since the mass of the required tracks, locomotive, coal and water precluded it. Correct, the numbers don't add up to send a steam train to the moon but they do work a lot better once you've invented rockets and base the maths on those instead and a century later man did indeed land on the moon.

It can be done, the question is about detail.

More to the point, what's the alternative? It sure isn't oil or gas the supply of which is prone to being cut off amidst political disputes, that being the underlying issue at present, and it's not coal which for those needing to import comes with the same risk. Indonesia is throttling coal supply to export customers right at this moment and historically there are countless examples of that happening even within the same country (and it has happened within Australia in the past).

Nobody's going to cut the sun off for political reasons.

 

[Smurf1976]

One thing about all this is that if you go to just about anywhere in the West and find out which government department deals with energy then the answer to that question is rather telling.

One common answer is that "energy" fits within some broad economic department such as Treasury or some general regulator of business. They'll be focusing on electricity and gas only, no focus on oil-based fuels, and to the extent they perceive any problem with energy it'll be about how many retailers you can choose from, what payment plans they offer, making sure everyone has the appropriate licenses and so on.

The other common answer is that "energy" fits within a broad environment department and to the extent there's any perceived issue with energy, it's primarily about environmental matters mostly climate change. In most cases the focus is on electricity exclusively, beyond perhaps some issues about licensing oil drilling and things like that.

Notice something there?

Two things are missing:

1. Any focus on oil at all and in many cases no focus on gas either.

2. Any focus on actually ensuring a reliable and economical supply of energy to consumers.

You'll find either an assortment of economic and regulating type people, or some environmental and compliance people, depending on where it fits in any given place but you generally won't find people who know about energy resources, the existing infrastructure or energy technology. Go back 40 years and such people ran the show but these days one by one they've been moved out of the way and replaced with a focus on markets, compliance, emissions and so on.

Now I'm not saying that the environment and so on isn't important but when it comes to energy, keeping the lights on and the wheels turning is the whole point of it. If that bit isn't happening then the rest's irrelevant.

It's the perfect setup for a crash when those driving the bus are more concerned with what's going on within it than what's happening on the road ahead.

 

[Sean K]

The Australia are saddling up all four horses on the Ukraine issue, @wayneL

(not sure what supples are)

 

[wayneL]

Geez! Lucky we've got a couple of nags and a BBQ, just in case our reserve of crackers and baked beans runs out. :0

 

[Sean K]

I'm not a big fan of Greg Sheridan, but I think he gets this one right on energy security and the risk the West is taking running towards renewables and Germany dumping nuclear before there's a suitable transition plan. Russia have the EU bent over and will be able to take Ukraine because of their reliance on Russian gas.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

Green-tinged West shoots itself in the foot on energy
Greg Sheridan

The absurdity of the West’s position in its confrontation with Russia over Moscow’s aggression towards Ukraine lies in this wretched equation.

If Russia invades Ukraine the only response threatened by the West – led by US President Joe Biden – is crippling sanctions. Chief among those sanctions must be stopping Russia earning the money to fund its army through its energy exports. Yet Russia provides a third of Europe’s gas, and half of Germany’s gas imports.

But Germany, in thrall to the excesses of Green enthusiasm, is abolishing not only its coal-fired energy but also its nuclear energy as well, making it hugely dependent on gas. Fracking is effectively banned in Britain, which is also moving to a ban on other gas exploration. Ditto other west European nations.

The greening democratic West is crippling its own energy production while in reality still relying overwhelmingly on fossil fuels. This has left much energy production, and therefore huge strategic leverage, to dictatorships which couldn’t care less about green issues, namely Russia, China and the regressive regimes of the Middle East.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm not a big fan of Greg Sheridan, but I think he gets this one right on energy security and the risk the West is taking running towards renewables and Germany dumping nuclear before there's a suitable transition plan. Russia have the EU bent over and will be able to take Ukraine because of their reliance on Russian gas.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

Green-tinged West shoots itself in the foot on energy
Greg Sheridan

The absurdity of the West’s position in its confrontation with Russia over Moscow’s aggression towards Ukraine lies in this wretched equation.

If Russia invades Ukraine the only response threatened by the West – led by US President Joe Biden – is crippling sanctions. Chief among those sanctions must be stopping Russia earning the money to fund its army through its energy exports. Yet Russia provides a third of Europe’s gas, and half of Germany’s gas imports.

But Germany, in thrall to the excesses of Green enthusiasm, is abolishing not only its coal-fired energy but also its nuclear energy as well, making it hugely dependent on gas. Fracking is effectively banned in Britain, which is also moving to a ban on other gas exploration. Ditto other west European nations.

The greening democratic West is crippling its own energy production while in reality still relying overwhelmingly on fossil fuels. This has left much energy production, and therefore huge strategic leverage, to dictatorships which couldn’t care less about green issues, namely Russia, China and the regressive regimes of the Middle East.

@Smurf1976 and I have been going on about this endlessly in this thread, 5 to six years ago people were convinced it was just a case of throwing a switch, from fossil fuel to renewables.
Mainly because the media were feeding out nonsense, that all it required was solar and wind farms to be thrown in, not that the whole HV transmission network was the wrong way around, where power feeds out not in and storage wasn't even being mentioned back then.
Most were actually holding the EU up as an example of how it should be done, they will end up a mess over there, the only ones that will be o.k are the Scandinavian countries, France and the U.K.

 

[Sean K]

@Smurf1976 and I have been going on about this endlessly in this thread, 5 to six years ago people were convinced it was just a case of throwing a switch, from fossil fuel to renewables.
Mainly because the media were feeding out nonsense, that all it required was solar and wind farms to be thrown in, not that the whole HV transmission network was the wrong way around, where power feeds out not in and storage wasn't even being mentioned back then.
Most were actually holding the EU up as an example of how it should be done, they will end up a mess over there, the only ones that will be o.k are the Scandinavian countries, France and the U.K.

Countries with majority hydro will go OK too. Not sure who that is, apart from Tassie.

 

[sptrawler]

Countries with majority hydro will go OK too. Not sure who that is, apart from Tassie.

Scandinavian countries, eg Norway, Sweden
Norway pretty close to 100% hydro.
Sweden is interesting approx 50% hydro, 50% nuclear.

 

[sptrawler]

Here is a snapshot of the U.K power grid.

National Grid: Live

Shows the live status of Great Britain’s electric power transmission network

grid.iamkate.com

 

[Smurf1976]

Scandinavian countries, eg Norway, Sweden
Norway pretty close to 100% hydro.
Sweden is interesting approx 50% hydro, 50% nuclear.

Add Canada and NZ to the list among developed "Western" countries but also most of the South American countries have at least a significant use of hydro though not fully reliant on it.

Austria's another one with substantial but not full reliance on it. Roughly 60% or so.

Meanwhile here in Australia, it looks extremely marginal for Queensland tomorrow. On present forecasts maximum load of 9948 MW versus available supply of 9972 MW. That's way too close for comfort and leaves no room for even the slightest hiccup.

A forecast LOR3 has been officially declared between 18:00 and 19:00 tomorrow for Queensland. In layman's terms that's power industry speak for blackouts.

An LOR2, which in simple terms means supply is not secure, risk is high, but the lights should stay on also declared 16:30 - 18:00 and 19:00 - 21:00 Qld local time.

AEMO is presently seeking a voluntary response - eg voluntary shutdown of major industry.

If no response received then there's no choice other than to disconnect by force. Who goes first is as per a list previously agreed with the state government.

Information correct at the time of posting but could change at any time if circumstances change - it's an evolving situation.

 

[sptrawler]

Add Canada and NZ to the list among developed "Western" countries but also most of the South American countries have at least a significant use of hydro though not fully reliant on it.

Austria's another one with substantial but not full reliance on it. Roughly 60% or so.

These industrialised countries, that are tying themselves to imported fossil fuels, are leaving themselves very exposed. If the tension with Russia continues I can see Germany doing a backflip on nuclear.

 

[Sean K]

Add Canada and NZ to the list among developed "Western" countries but also most of the South American countries have at least a significant use of hydro though not fully reliant on it.

Austria's another one with substantial but not full reliance on it. Roughly 60% or so.

We could have more in the mix if the tropical northern rivers had have been damed and a proportion of that water sent south through hydro systems that then irrigated central QLD and fed into the Murray Darling. No emission power (apart from the development) and no more drought in the South East. Would probably cost $50b and destroy some of the environment in the short term, but long term a nation changing project.

 

[Sean K]

These industrialised countries, that are tying themselves to imported fossil fuels, are leaving themselves very exposed. If the tension with Russia continues I can see Germany doing a backflip on nuclear.

Yes, I think there's some national security meetings going on in Berlin and Brussels about how to solve it on security concerns. The US have offered some short term supply if required, and even Australia has, but it's not just a tap you can turn on and off.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes, I think there's some national security meetings going on in Berlin and Brussels about how to solve it on security concerns. The US have offered some short term supply if required, and even Australia has, but it's not just a tap you can turn on and off.

That is true a lot of our LNG is pre sold and I would guess they don't have extra LNG tankers sitting in a shed, waiting for someone to order a $hit load of gas, seriously how much LNG would the EU consume? Heaps is my guess.

 

[sptrawler]

We could have more in the mix if the tropical northern rivers had have been damed and a proportion of that water sent south through hydro systems that then irrigated central QLD and fed into the Murray Darling. No emission power (apart from the development) and no more drought in the South East. Would probably cost $50b and destroy some of the environment in the short term, but long term a nation changing project.

They are starting to put a bit of pumped hydro in the North of Queensland.
The North of W.A is in a similar situation, but we did put a 30MW hydro on the Ord, to feed Kununurra and Argyle diamond mine.
Now the mine is closing there will be about 15MW of green power available, they are looking into making hydrogen.
How times change, in the 1980's, I supervised moving a diesel generator from Wyndham down to Kununurra, because the meat works closed in Wyndham. Since then the Hydro was put in to replace the Kununurra power station and supply Argyle when it opened. Now Argyle is finished, $hit happens quickly these days.

Ord Hydrogen (Archived) - HyResource

Ord Hydrogen A feasibility study assessed the potential for using the existing Ord hydroelectric power plant in the Kimberley region […]

research.csiro.au

 

[macca]

We could have more in the mix if the tropical northern rivers had have been damed and a proportion of that water sent south through hydro systems that then irrigated central QLD and fed into the Murray Darling. No emission power (apart from the development) and no more drought in the South East. Would probably cost $50b and destroy some of the environment in the short term, but long term a nation changing project.

If you have ever been to the South Island of NZ there are these wonderful "lakes" that beautify the place.

They are all part of the Hydro scheme, along with canals linking them together.

NZ claims green kudos because of Hydro power, yet in today's world the scheme could never be built

 

[Sean K]

This snapshot of energy prices could go in a number of threads, but I'll choose the one I started.

I can't see this changing any time soon. YoY looks like trouble. Will this continue? How much of this is driving inflation I wonder, amongst other second and third order effects.