Energy Security

Sean K · 7 January 2022

I posted a link up in a climate thread yesterday, but realised it was more about energy security.

This is a significant topic, that has lead to major geopolitical affects, and is about to.

The post I put up in the other thread, is just a starting point.

I think there's a few members here who know where I'm going.

Smurf1976 · 7 January 2022

Sean K said:
I posted a link up in a climate thread yesterday, but realised it was more about energy security.

This is a significant topic, that has lead to major geopolitical affects, and is about to.

The post I put up in the other thread, is just a starting point.

I think there's a few members here who know where I'm going.

If the general public realised just how fragile and vulnerable it all is, debate on the subject would be vastly different.

Almost all conventional liquid fuels used in Australia are either refined overseas or are refined here from imported crude oil. That's a massive vulnerability.

Within the gas and electricity industries there are several situations where a single infrastructure failure, be that accidental or malicious, means major supply shortfall or even total loss of supply to one or more capital cities. For obvious reasons I won't post a list of what those vulnerabilities are on a publicly visible forum beyond noting that they exist and there's more than one.

Sean K · 8 January 2022

Smurf1976 said:
If the general public realised just how fragile and vulnerable it all is, debate on the subject would be vastly different.

I think they're getting there. Jim Molan has been quite vocal on it but I think that message has only got through Sky News types, so there's still a big gap in understanding how fragile we are. With less than a months worth of fuel, any cut to the supply chain will render us immobile. It's one of the reasons we've got a US guarantee of strategic fuel supplies if needed, but who knows what happens in the Pacific down the track.

Japan is one country who are in a precarious situation if China end up controlling sea lines of communication in the next few years. We're probably all lucky that India control the route into the Malacca Straights via the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Hence one of the most significant things about the QUAD.

Germany is a very interesting case study in energy security. It's perhaps a hangover from WW2 that they've got themselves into the situation they're in.

macca · 8 January 2022

Sean K said:
I think they're getting there. Jim Molan has been quite vocal on it but I think that message has only got through Sky News types, so there's still a big gap in understanding how fragile we are. With less than a months worth of fuel, any cut to the supply chain will render us immobile. It's one of the reasons we've got a US guarantee of strategic fuel supplies if needed, but who knows what happens in the Pacific down the track.

Japan is one country who are in a precarious situation if China end up controlling sea lanes of communication in the next few years. We're probably all lucky that India control the route into the Malacca Straights via the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Hence one of the most significant things about the QUAD.

Germany is a very interesting case study in energy security. It's perhaps a hangover from WW2 that they've got themselves into the situation they're in.

Yes, no gas in the middle of winter and a multitude of useless frozen windmills

sptrawler · 8 January 2022

The main problem is, most think it is just a case of throwing in some solar panels, over a 12 month period. Problem solved.

Sean K · 8 January 2022

sptrawler said:
The main problem is, most think it is just a case of throwing in some solar panels, over a 12 month period. Problem solved.

Agree. There's some significant short term sightedness with energy security and its medium term implications. It's why some countries are holding back on the net zero emissions plans because it will make them strategically vulnerable. A few countries are realising this is an opportunity. We're now evolving out of a period of grand strategic planning to operational planning.

moXJO · 8 January 2022

It's a good time for some superpowers to annex neighbours. Look out Ukraine and Taiwan.

Smurf1976 · 9 January 2022

Sean K said:
There's some significant short term sightedness with energy security and its medium term implications.

The big problem is that most just don't grasp the sheer scale of energy infrastructure, its complexity and how long it takes to get things built.

Refineries, mines, dams, power stations, pipelines and so on - anything like that built to a full scale operation takes many years to build even with a "rammed through" level of support from government.

Hence it's far too late to start building when there's an urgent need.

Take oil shale for example. In the Australian context it's known to exist in Qld, NSW, Tas, SA and WA indeed there's even a specific type named after an Australian state - Tasmanite shale.

But since we don't have an active industry at all, production is at present zero (there's been some production in NSW, Tas and to a limited extent Qld in the past), it's somewhat irrelevant from a fuel security perspective that the resource exists. In a cut off situation, we'd be well and truly stuffed long before we could get anything up and running noting that lack of fuel of itself makes building things rather difficult.

Smurf1976 · 9 January 2022

macca said:
Yes, no gas in the middle of winter and a multitude of useless frozen windmills

Biggest problem with all this is failing to design things so that they're reliable under the full range of operating conditions.

It can be done most certainly but all too often isn't done. It's not that any particular technology can't work, just that it's often built and operated down to a price rather than up to a standard and that means at some point it fails.

Sean K · 9 January 2022

Smurf1976 said:
The big problem is that most just don't grasp the sheer scale of energy infrastructure, its complexity and how long it takes to get things built.

Refineries, mines, dams, power stations, pipelines and so on - anything like that built to a full scale operation takes many years to build even with a "rammed through" level of support from government.

Have you looked at the Bradfield Scheme, Smurf? Water and power generation. On the surface seems like a good investment.

Sean K · 9 January 2022

Part of the energy security story is the price of fuel that has gone up quite significantly recently. Whether that is due to a rush to renewables or supply chain interruptions due to Covid is another discussion.

The US has seen massive increases in fuel costs in the past year or so, as has Europe.

I'm not sure if fuel prices is the cause of the unrest in Kazakhstan, or just an excuse for something more serious, but Russia moving in here as well as about to take the western edges of the Ukraine is not good.

Cops ‘beheaded’ as country verges on collapse

Police officers have reportedly been found beheaded in Kazakhstan and dozens of protesters killed amid violent riots that threaten to topple the government of the former Soviet republic.

www.news.com.au

macca · 9 January 2022

Smurf1976 said:
The big problem is that most just don't grasp the sheer scale of energy infrastructure, its complexity and how long it takes to get things built.

Refineries, mines, dams, power stations, pipelines and so on - anything like that built to a full scale operation takes many years to build even with a "rammed through" level of support from government.

Hence it's far too late to start building when there's an urgent need.

Take oil shale for example. In the Australian context it's known to exist in Qld, NSW, Tas, SA and WA indeed there's even a specific type named after an Australian state - Tasmanite shale.

But since we don't have an active industry at all, production is at present zero (there's been some production in NSW, Tas and to a limited extent Qld in the past), it's somewhat irrelevant from a fuel security perspective that the resource exists. In a cut off situation, we'd be well and truly stuffed long before we could get anything up and running noting that lack of fuel of itself makes building things rather difficult.

Almost a century ago, here in NSW, we had shale oil mines and producers near Port Kembla and Glen Davis, very interesting relics to visit actually.

We really need to be holding a minimum of 10 -12 weeks or more of everything we may need IMO

Sean K · 9 January 2022

macca said:
We really need to be holding a minimum of 10 -12 weeks or more of everything we may need IMO

I think there's an OECD, or another acronym that I forget, that stipulates 30 days. I think we've been averaging 20 days or so for a long time.

The government's 'plan' is here:

Australia’s fuel security package | energy.gov.au

Australia’s fuel security is essential for our national security and underpins our economy. We have been fortunate to have not experienced a significant fuel supply shock in over 40 years. However, we currently import around 90% of our liquid fuels.

www.energy.gov.au

Smurf1976 · 9 January 2022

Sean K said:
I think there's an OECD, or another acronym that I forget, that stipulates 30 days.

Australia signed up to a treaty, and that's an actual treaty which is intended to be binding, over 40 years ago with the International Energy Agency (IEA) and that stipulates 90 days of net imports. Since that's a treaty it's an actual obligation, it's not just a recommendation or target - Australia signed up that we'd do it.

Last time I checked, Australia was the only OECD country not achieving full compliance with that indeed many Third World countries, who are not formally bound by it, do have reasonable stocks in practice and some have the full 90 days.

Smurf1976 · 9 January 2022

macca said:
Almost a century ago, here in NSW, we had shale oil mines and producers near Port Kembla and Glen Davis, very interesting relics to visit actually.

I've been to the Glen Davis one and quite interesting ruins etc yes. Also there's the glow worm tunnel out that way.

There's still a few remnants of the former Tasmanian operations too. Not a lot but some bits and pieces can be found.

Sean K · 9 January 2022

Smurf1976 said:
Last time I checked, Australia was the only OECD country not achieving full compliance with that indeed many Third World countries, who are not formally bound by it, do have reasonable stocks in practice and some have the full 90 days.

One of the problems we have with holding enough fuel is that we are naturally fuel intensive. A massive country/continent with very long lines of communication between major cities to transport people, food and goods. It's one of the main reasons we are one of the World's largest CO2 emitters per capita.

Perhaps once planes, trains and automobiles switch to batteries/hydrogen this won't be so much of an issue.

But, there's a short to medium term gap that needs to be plugged.

SirRumpole · 9 January 2022

Sean K said:
One of the problems we have with holding enough fuel is that we are naturally fuel intensive. A massive country/continent with very long lines of communication between major cities to transport people, food and goods. It's one of the main reasons we are one of the World's largest CO2 emitters per capita.

Perhaps once planes, trains and automobiles switch to batteries/hydrogen this won't be so much of an issue.

But, there's a short to medium term gap that needs to be plugged.

Are there any known oil reserves in this country that we have been too lazy or cheap to develope ?

Sean K · 9 January 2022

SirRumpole said:
Are there any known oil reserves in this country that we have been too lazy or cheap to develope ?

I'm not sure about oil, but we have a lot of gas sitting underneath our feat that state governments have prevented being tapped. I think if we really got into a bind, the Fed Gov would step in on national security grounds to bring it up. But, as Smurf said, this would take years to get into the system. And, as we have witnessed with our Federation system on Covid, the Fed overriding States for national purposes would be a last line of resort. It would take a declaration of war for the Feds to mobilise national resources.

basilio · 11 January 2022

A broader view of energy security. But I believe it is also applicable to us,

There's a Way to End Energy Poverty—And It Has the Side Effect of Making Fossil Fuels Obsolete

In Pictures Ltd./Corbis/Getty Im—Andrew Aitchison

Ideas

By Nicole Poindexter

January 6, 2022 8:00 AM EST

Nicole Poindexter is the founder and CEO of Energicity Corp, a U.S. based company that builds and operates solar-powered minigrid utility providing rural, off-grid communities in Sierra Leone, Benin, Liberia and Nigeria with affordable, sustainable electric power.

You bring your feverish baby to the hospital in the middle of the night. The nurse asks you to go home to get a flashlight. When the flashlight batteries give out, she resorts to a flickering candle to guide the insertion of an IV needle, delivering malaria medicine, into your baby’s hand.

Maybe you don’t have a baby. Maybe you travel 14 miles a day by public bus to buy fresh fish to sell in your village. Every day, you must sell the fish before your ice melts and your inventory becomes worthless.

In much of Africa, this is the norm. Almost half of the continent’s 1.3 billion population live without electricity, which destroys opportunities for education, jobs and adequate medical care. That’s why the U.N. has set the global goal of providing electricity by 2030 to 600 million people who are currently without it. Achieving that target will require the participation of a range of players: large organizations like the Rockefeller Foundation; development institutions like the World Bank; the governments of African countries; and entrepreneurial minigrid utility companies like Energicity. Together, building on successes of recent years, we should aim to provide 6 million additional people with sustainable electricity in 2022, to put us on a pathway to reaching 600 million by 2030. To do so, all participants need to embrace new strategies over the next 12 months.

There's a Way to End Energy Poverty—And It Has the Side Effect of Making Fossil Fuels Obsolete

Nicole Poindexter of Energicity argues that in 2022 we can bring green energy to 600 million people who currently don't have electricity.

time.com

Sean K · 19 January 2022

I thought the EU, NATO and particularly Germany were going to give in to Russia on the Ukraine standoff but Germany have said they'll even stop the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Russia invade. It could just be words, but I really thought Russia had them bent over in regards to energy on this situation. Not sure where Germany gets their gas from if this falls over.

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