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End of the China Bull? Part 2.

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We might need a new thread called BEGINNING of the China Bull - Part II.

Chinese PMI hit a record 12 month high, but discount that because it was off an all time record low in February:
china-business-confidence.png

April PMI will be interesting as Chinese industries have been ramping up as the lid was put on COVID-19 - at least the first wave.
China's big problem is that it lost a lot of its overseas orders, so will be relying heavily on domestic demand.
I was watching LME metal inventories, expecting to see massive stockpiling happening. Nope... some mediocre rises only, and not necessarily attributable to COVID-19. For example:
lme-warehouse-nickel-6m-Large.gif

Scanning ASX miner's media releases it appears few are affected. On the other hand Africa and the Americas are not having our luck. Africa in particular is poorly placed should COVID-19 take hold, and this would further advantage Australian-based miners, even in a subdued global market.

On the manufacturing front, China right now is strongly placed to capture additional market share for a wide range of products as their competitors scale back in response to COVID-19.
 
satanoperca said:
Who supplies the data for China's PMI figures?

Please do not tell me China.

@rederob
Click to expand...
If you actually have a basis for disputing the data, then please offer it.
Here's the internationally accepted equivalent version of China's NBS Manufacturing PMI which I posted previously:
china-manufacturing-pmi.png


As you can see there is not a lot of difference. China's manufacturing record pretty well speaks for itself, and their NBS PMI data by and large continues to be broadly consistent with international expectations. Perhaps more interestingly is the fact that the internationally accepted PMI is regularly higher than that of NBS.
 
rederob said:
If you actually have a basis for disputing the data, then please offer it.
Here's the internationally accepted equivalent version of China's NBS Manufacturing PMI which I posted previously:
china-manufacturing-pmi.png


As you can see there is not a lot of difference. China's manufacturing record pretty well speaks for itself, and their NBS PMI data by and large continues to be broadly consistent with international expectations. Perhaps more interestingly is the fact that the internationally accepted PMI is regularly higher than that of NBS.
Click to expand...

Let me help you out, Chinese reported data distributed across the globe. That is why it correlates.

I cannot dispute what the Chinese say, I am not in China, but my suppliers are, and it is vastly different to what is being reported. But then again, I work in the real world.

Who supplied the data was my question? I provided a direct link to the Chinese data, you cannot question that maybe, just maybe, they supply incorrect data. Who would have thought?

You seem to be full of facts and statements, but cannot put 2 and 2 together.
 
satanoperca said:
Let me help you out, Chinese reported data distributed across the globe. That is why it correlates.

I cannot dispute what the Chinese say, I am not in China, but my suppliers are, and it is vastly different to what is being reported. But then again, I work in the real world.

Who supplied the data was my question? I provided a direct link to the Chinese data, you cannot question that maybe, just maybe, they supply incorrect data. Who would have thought?

You seem to be full of facts and statements, but cannot put 2 and 2 together.
Click to expand...
Both PMI I have referenced are based on surveys of Chinese manufacturers. Often they will be the same companies and same people responding.
The NBS PMI are typically less optimistic, so China certainly is not using the nation's official PMI to talk up their economy.
You should get better acquainted with how PMI are constructed rather than rely on your anecdote.
 
rederob said:
Both PMI I have referenced are based on surveys of Chinese manufacturers. Often they will be the same companies and same people responding.
The NBS PMI are typically less optimistic, so China certainly is not using the nation's official PMI to talk up their economy.
You should get better acquainted with how PMI are constructed rather than rely on your anecdote.
Click to expand...

F--k me, you have no idea about data integrity. LOL
 
satanoperca said:
F--k me, you have no idea about data integrity. LOL
Click to expand...
Actually, I worked collaboratively with the ABS for 3 years in Canberra at a senior level, so I suspect I have a better idea than most people. I also provided Australian government input into into a number of matters relating to standardising international definitions leading to data capture.
 
So what, you take the data input from China, yes or no? and you believe that data is valid, yes or no?
Did you every question the validation of the data in the first place?
I suspect not.
 
satanoperca said:
So what, you take the data input from China, yes or no? and you believe that data is valid, yes or no?
Did you every question the validation of the data in the first place?
I suspect not.
Click to expand...
All the data is based on surveys, and it's just a matter of who is surveyed, how, and then the methodology used to present the information as an index.
As I said, often it will be the same people in the same companies that respond to the NBS or IHS Markit, who provide the indexes.
It is clear you have no idea what is involved.
By all means troll me, but can you ensure your points have a reasoned foundation.
 
rederob said:
All the data is based on surveys, and it's just a matter of who is surveyed, how, and then the methodology used to present the information as an index.
As I said, often it will be the same people in the same companies that respond to the NBS or IHS Markit, who provide the indexes.
It is clear you have no idea what is involved.
By all means troll me, but can you ensure your points have a reasoned foundation.
Click to expand...
You make me laugh.

I question where the data was coming from and whether it was valid.

Your response was I was trolling you, please.

I could say many things, but they have no purpose, all I asked for was valid data, which you cannot provide.
 
satanoperca said:
You make me laugh.

I question where the data was coming from and whether it was valid.

Your response was I was trolling you, please.

I could say many things, but they have no purpose, all I asked for was valid data, which you cannot provide.
Click to expand...
You could try to understand how the surveys are conducted, as there are links to the PMI sources.
At no stage have you indulged in anything meaningful here or made a useful contribution.
 
This is some immature, I ask again, where does the data come from for the PMI for China?

Please stop with the immature comments, if you do not know, just say so, I don't.
 
satanoperca said:
This is some immature, I ask again, where does the data come from for the PMI for China?

Please stop with the immature comments, if you do not know, just say so, I don't.
Click to expand...
An answer was previously provided:
rederob said:
Both PMI I have referenced are based on surveys of Chinese manufacturers.
Click to expand...
Links were also provided.
If data can be verified by another means then it can be collected by that means and there is zero need to carry out a survey.
As I said, happy for you to troll me, but can you do some basic research to get yourself up to speed.
 
There are no black swans when we have them in the scope, but we might have one coming from behind

www.macrobusiness.com.au

Albert Edwards: China to take down the world

Albert Edwards of Societe Generale with what readers will recognise if my own thesis for global recession. Ignore the Chinese credit impulse. The rebound is stuck in a liquidity trap, not circulating in the economy. ———————————————————— Bloomberg’s Wednesday Daily,“5 things to start your day”...
www.macrobusiness.com.au www.macrobusiness.com.au

Following as per my interest in China's economy .i still see China smashing the west as we go but the next BIG....G crash might get triggered there.
Does not mean it won't hurt us more
 
from around the traps:

".. the workshop of the world, namely China, is now exporting deflation.

...China cut two important policy rates this week, with a 0.1% cut in the 7-day repo rate to 1.9%, and a 0.1% cut in the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate to 2.65%.

. ... . None of this is surprising when one looks at the Chinese economic data released in recent weeks.

New construction starts in the property sector, declined 22.6% from a year earlier, in the January to May period.

Chinese exports fell 7.5% in May, on a year-on year basis.

Industrial production rose 3.5% in May, a deceleration from the annual rate of growth seen in April of 5.5%.

It is worth highlighting that a year ago China was in a state of virtual hibernation, hence the ‘bounce’ in growth has been remarkably subdued.

Youth unemployment set another record high in May, rising to 20.8%.

... and it is worth a reminder that 11 million university students graduate this July, so that number of 20.8% is set to rise even further.

....the Chinese economy is in trouble, with the key economic locomotive of the property sector facing years of weakness.

Japanese style weakness...."
 

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