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Re: Any news on EMS??
Posted this about 8 days ago onanother site,
Little has changed I feel.
On the positives are the agreements and companies they have purchased for selling their products. The South African purchase has gone ahead. Longer term with the aids epedemic there and sadly in other African nations the demands on this type of market are huge. Also being a somewhat closed market for outsiders will pay off in the end.
Market has viewed this as putting the horse before the cart for EMS and somewhat agree with their view.
Also the possible joint venture UK and Germany could prove to be a huge.
One of the Major concerns for EMS I had was as it went towards production was the delays and problems associated with getting a new technology up and running. Still we see problems with the Pap gringing technology, initially on the quality, the rest on the robotic side of things.
Hopefully this will be sorted out over the next 2 months. This is the crux of what I see as value for the company in the first place. If they are able to get this new technology working correctly in a factory environment the company is home and hosed. I am concerned at this stage with it not being up and running, however whilst not hoped for, with every new technology being implemented from the invention to the production stage it is expected some delays however unwelcome it may be.
Watch the announcement regarding this very closely. It is the basis of long term value for the comapy!
Now they have a distribution network they have purchased, once production starts and they are able to produce low cost high quiality needles for a fraction of the cost over existing methods the long term will be assured. But until then just be careful.
Looking at the sales numbers for the last quarter and the apparent profit when one takes out the set up costs for the needle grinding factory, they all look good to me.
Not holding the share right now.
Others in the field hit hard in some cases over the last 3 months. UNI who I thought was way over the top has been smashed with its own set of problems. EMS has followed it with also problems with the crucial technology. RTL on the other hand the share has gone the other way. When I compare the two, EMS sales 2 mio for the quarter, RTL zero ... well EMS has a much larger Market cap so suppose this is alright. EMS with the purchase of the South African business, if it is able to become the producer of cheap very high quality needles and becomes the supplier for the distrubution businesses it has purchased well things over time will only go one way.
It all comes down to this production. Can EMS create the working model of this technology.
If it can, they will be able to produce needles with a price advantage over their compeditors for similar quality of the order of 50%. If you sell exactly the same product for a discount of 25%, well the profits being both the producer and distributor are plain.
Don't rush out there. Problems on two sides at this stage with the production. Firstly the quality was questioned, this may seem to have been fixed reading in between the lines. However now some problem with the robotics and there fore production speed needs to be fixed. All was in reality expected with a new technology.
I cannot stress it hard enough. Until both the problems are fixed the technology is unproved on a commercial scale and the implications are obvious. If they can get it working at full speed but the needles are of low quality, that doesn't work, if it can produce very high quality needles but only at a fraction of the speed hoped for that also doesn't work. Slow speed equals increased unit cost and my attraction to the possibilities of the future for EMS evaporate.
What will be the result ? I don't know but the longer it goes on without a resolution to the production problem the more the share will be punished.
Is there is no resolution, along with the rest of the needle makers I would put EMS in the too hard basket. The market for needles and syringes has some very big multinational players. EMS if it gets this right will have an advantge on price and would be able to compete with much larger players on price differentials alone. As for the others syringe makers, I am firmly of the view despite maybe having great safety products, the lack of marketing networks and very compeditive nature of the market will make life very difficult as time goes on.
EMS has a UK distributor it now owns and an entry into Europe. Now also a foot into the African continent. However without the technology working as advertised, they are just another of the hundred or so distributors in the field.
Will the technology work as promised ? Thats it for EMS
Not much has changed ... since then
Posted this about 8 days ago onanother site,
Little has changed I feel.
On the positives are the agreements and companies they have purchased for selling their products. The South African purchase has gone ahead. Longer term with the aids epedemic there and sadly in other African nations the demands on this type of market are huge. Also being a somewhat closed market for outsiders will pay off in the end.
Market has viewed this as putting the horse before the cart for EMS and somewhat agree with their view.
Also the possible joint venture UK and Germany could prove to be a huge.
One of the Major concerns for EMS I had was as it went towards production was the delays and problems associated with getting a new technology up and running. Still we see problems with the Pap gringing technology, initially on the quality, the rest on the robotic side of things.
Hopefully this will be sorted out over the next 2 months. This is the crux of what I see as value for the company in the first place. If they are able to get this new technology working correctly in a factory environment the company is home and hosed. I am concerned at this stage with it not being up and running, however whilst not hoped for, with every new technology being implemented from the invention to the production stage it is expected some delays however unwelcome it may be.
Watch the announcement regarding this very closely. It is the basis of long term value for the comapy!
Now they have a distribution network they have purchased, once production starts and they are able to produce low cost high quiality needles for a fraction of the cost over existing methods the long term will be assured. But until then just be careful.
Looking at the sales numbers for the last quarter and the apparent profit when one takes out the set up costs for the needle grinding factory, they all look good to me.
Not holding the share right now.
Others in the field hit hard in some cases over the last 3 months. UNI who I thought was way over the top has been smashed with its own set of problems. EMS has followed it with also problems with the crucial technology. RTL on the other hand the share has gone the other way. When I compare the two, EMS sales 2 mio for the quarter, RTL zero ... well EMS has a much larger Market cap so suppose this is alright. EMS with the purchase of the South African business, if it is able to become the producer of cheap very high quality needles and becomes the supplier for the distrubution businesses it has purchased well things over time will only go one way.
It all comes down to this production. Can EMS create the working model of this technology.
If it can, they will be able to produce needles with a price advantage over their compeditors for similar quality of the order of 50%. If you sell exactly the same product for a discount of 25%, well the profits being both the producer and distributor are plain.
Don't rush out there. Problems on two sides at this stage with the production. Firstly the quality was questioned, this may seem to have been fixed reading in between the lines. However now some problem with the robotics and there fore production speed needs to be fixed. All was in reality expected with a new technology.
I cannot stress it hard enough. Until both the problems are fixed the technology is unproved on a commercial scale and the implications are obvious. If they can get it working at full speed but the needles are of low quality, that doesn't work, if it can produce very high quality needles but only at a fraction of the speed hoped for that also doesn't work. Slow speed equals increased unit cost and my attraction to the possibilities of the future for EMS evaporate.
What will be the result ? I don't know but the longer it goes on without a resolution to the production problem the more the share will be punished.
Is there is no resolution, along with the rest of the needle makers I would put EMS in the too hard basket. The market for needles and syringes has some very big multinational players. EMS if it gets this right will have an advantge on price and would be able to compete with much larger players on price differentials alone. As for the others syringe makers, I am firmly of the view despite maybe having great safety products, the lack of marketing networks and very compeditive nature of the market will make life very difficult as time goes on.
EMS has a UK distributor it now owns and an entry into Europe. Now also a foot into the African continent. However without the technology working as advertised, they are just another of the hundred or so distributors in the field.
Will the technology work as promised ? Thats it for EMS
Not much has changed ... since then
Re: Any news on EMS??
Great post kahuna, I think you have hit the nail on the head. The only thing i would add is that the directors must be very confident in PAP being able to work as they are going out and buying distribution and manufacturing companies around the world to take full advantages of the pap tech.
Also alot of companies are investing time and money in EMs from O/S
(Germany,the UK and now south africa). The Germans alone are willing to throw 30 million into ems to be apart of ems's tech. I have been looking over EMS's announcements for the past couple of years and i only see positives to come. EMS will be putting everything into getting the PAP machine up and running as this is what will drive ems, No pap no ems. The other thing i like about ems is there low cash burn compared to the other companies in the same field, this is mainly due to the revenues generated by MIA, which will now increase due to there new distribution centre in South Africa. At there current levels, ems to me seems very cheap, but as you say the sign ems are a buy is when PAP is up and running.
Great post kahuna, I think you have hit the nail on the head. The only thing i would add is that the directors must be very confident in PAP being able to work as they are going out and buying distribution and manufacturing companies around the world to take full advantages of the pap tech.
Also alot of companies are investing time and money in EMs from O/S
(Germany,the UK and now south africa). The Germans alone are willing to throw 30 million into ems to be apart of ems's tech. I have been looking over EMS's announcements for the past couple of years and i only see positives to come. EMS will be putting everything into getting the PAP machine up and running as this is what will drive ems, No pap no ems. The other thing i like about ems is there low cash burn compared to the other companies in the same field, this is mainly due to the revenues generated by MIA, which will now increase due to there new distribution centre in South Africa. At there current levels, ems to me seems very cheap, but as you say the sign ems are a buy is when PAP is up and running.
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Re: Any news on EMS??
still the pap delay, by the sound of it will know pretty soon to what extent its going to be held up , if they have to go to another robotics company could be ages....
kahunas post early was spot on about ems imho
still the pap delay, by the sound of it will know pretty soon to what extent its going to be held up , if they have to go to another robotics company could be ages....
kahunas post early was spot on about ems imho
Re: Any news on EMS??
i think the pap announcement, will be a good time to buy even if the news is not so good. If the news is bad it will be a great oppertunity to pick ems up below current levels. PAP is EMS, but there is alot more to ems than just pap. EMS has increased revenues from MIA, and now south africa. If you read the bottom line it says ems will have everything underway with in 3 months. Ill be watching closely for the pap update, but if its bad then its not the end of the world, it just means lowering cost average.
i think the pap announcement, will be a good time to buy even if the news is not so good. If the news is bad it will be a great oppertunity to pick ems up below current levels. PAP is EMS, but there is alot more to ems than just pap. EMS has increased revenues from MIA, and now south africa. If you read the bottom line it says ems will have everything underway with in 3 months. Ill be watching closely for the pap update, but if its bad then its not the end of the world, it just means lowering cost average.
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Re: Any news on EMS??
Last announcement didnt really give anything new accept a date for the report by anca and ems due today... last announcement only verifies that pap tech is working fine the concern has been on the robotics feeding the needles into the pap. If anca have got thier **** together and pap is fully commercialised we will here about contracts but could be more delays...
sounds like we will know soon enough, good to see you got a profit out of this one stockgod
i'm still hoping to get back in once the robotics is sorted out
Last announcement didnt really give anything new accept a date for the report by anca and ems due today... last announcement only verifies that pap tech is working fine the concern has been on the robotics feeding the needles into the pap. If anca have got thier **** together and pap is fully commercialised we will here about contracts but could be more delays...
sounds like we will know soon enough, good to see you got a profit out of this one stockgod
i'm still hoping to get back in once the robotics is sorted out
