ELE - Elmore Ltd

pan · 9 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Feels like we have been left in the dark abit. Thought we would of been given some info on what the goes is- extension etc..

They said it would be 5 working days???

Birdster · 9 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

pan said:
...

They said it would be 5 working days???

I feel your pain pan! Though it was written "expect" 5 days...once in VS, they (NSL) can stay that way, almost indefinatly, notwithsanding info that must be made pubic.

Curious to say the least on the extension...

Dec. holding NSL

YOUNG_TRADER · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

With the benefit of hindsight, it now appears NSL picked the perfect time to go into a trading halt and if I was to guess I'd say they're waiting for the mkts to steady before they release their ann

Very savy managament, they know how to play the game, more like them are needed

sam76 · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

ANNOUNCEMENT OUT!!!!

HUGE PEOPLE HUGE!!!!

LOL

well done to holders

ann too big to post

Largesse · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

sam76,

It is honestly time for NSL holders to stop looking through the rose tinted glasses of the speculator, all the fact are laid out on the table now.

You have average tonnage at low percentages (500-700MT @ 30-45%).

Your shares about are to be consolidated at 4:1, after which they will conduct a capital raising at less than half their current market value (4x10.5c =42c, cap raising at 20c).

So, assuming, for safety's sake, we assume the minimum cap raising price of 20c, they will issue 125million shares at 20c, equivalent to 600m in old terms.

They will then issue 400million post consolidation shares upfront. This is the equivalent of 1.6billion in the old terms.

Then, upon hurdles being cleared will proceed to issue another 400million post consolidation shares in three tranches over the next 4-5 years.

In new terms, this equates to ~97m + 125m + 400m = 622m post consolidation shares (2.488billion in old terms) upfront.

Then a further 400m post consolidation shares added to that over 5 years, bringing total shares to 1.022billion shares or 4 088 000 000 shares in old terms.

i could go on, but seriously.

short term sell, cash in your substantial winnings.

YOUNG_TRADER · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Hey Largesse,

They say the cap raising will be at a minimum of 20c, given based on the 1-4 consolidation the current SP represents 40c, I'd say the cap raising will more likely be done at 30c,

The deposit is actually "new Exploration Potential of 500Mt to 770Mt grading 25% Fe to 35% Fe. An exploration target for the Iron Ore Hill Project has been set at 1.2 billion metric tonnes."

Sub 30% Mag is a bit of a worry, but if its closer to 35% then its ok, but still I think 50c/t Mag is the fair figure to use as EV of resources

Using the mean figure of 635Mt's@30%Fe = 190Mt's Mag

At 50c/t Mag = $95m Mkt Cap

There will be a ****e load of shares issued and placed and heavy heavy dilution for exisitng shareholders, but at the end of the day something more seems to be happening in the background, ie where do they expect to get $25m in these mkts?

I don't hold and haven't held for sometime but from the rough calculations I have done $100m is the mkt cap I get for this

Just my thoughts

tech/a · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

YT

I cant believe you dont have any of these YT.

Its because of you that I do!
Keep up the good work.

YOUNG_TRADER · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Hey Tech/A

You must not have been keeping an eye on this thread, I said I sold a few months back and have been kicking myself, bought heaps 1.5c-2c and sold alot 2.5c-3c as the mkts back then just beared me out and I started to lock in profits in alot of stocks

Anyway trying to be a good ASF'er now and help put a value to all this,

I did say 50c a tonne Mag, but then I was jsut reading a BBY report where they highlight 2 international deals/take overs of Magnetite Iron Ore deposits which were done at a $1 and $2 Mag equivalent price, but then those were for JORC's

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Those 2 transactions BBY cite make me think has a new Benchmark been set for Mag worldwide?

Anglo Deal for 49% MINAS RIO RESOURCES JORC 3.79 Billion Tonnes @ 33% Fe = 1.264 Billion Tonnes of Mag = $2 per tonne Mag

The ERNC / BML Deal 100% JORC 1.96 Billion Tonnes @ 32% Fe = 630 Million Tonnes Mag = $1 per tonne Mag

Maybe $1/t is the new deal EV for Mag worldwide?

This is going to be a hard one to value, but I will go out on a limb and say 25c minimum EV with a prefered 50c EV per tonne Mag

tech/a · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

I'll be the first to admit I know nothing about the funnies.
Whats that convert to in share price terms?

YOUNG_TRADER · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Well its very hard to say Tech for a number of reasons

Firstly I can't figure out how many shares there will be as there will be consolidation, issue to vendors, capital raisings and performance shares

Secondly I can't figure out how big the target is, is it 550Mt-770Mt's additional to give a total target of 1.2Bt's? or is the 550Mt's - 770Mt's the new target???

Thirdly I'm unsure as to what EV per tonne Mag to use, 50c was the figure I usually use for Mag, but then that BBY report on SDL showed to clear examples of $1/t and $2/t being used

Will have to do alot of thinking on this one

Birdster · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

YT,

Thank you for posting your thoughts. More of a thanks for your expertise in (re)valuing even though your out. My hat is off to you!

The ann seems to have questions as well as answers with the way it's worded. I guess the propectus will give us more answers (and more questions)

Largesse · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Hey YT,

If they conduct the Cap raising at 30c rather than 20c, you get dilution of approximately 83million post-consolidation shares as opposed to 125million at 20c.

That gives you a share register of ~580m post consolidation upfront (2.32billion in todays term, approx 6x current shares on issue), then up to ~980m shares within 5 years time.

With regard to the resource, the 500-700MT is a conceptual exploration potential @ 25-35% (yukkkkkkkk). The 1.2BT exploration target confuses me somewhat as well. With nothing to substantiate it i liken it to me saying "i have a target to make $10million at some point in the future".

Edit: Additionally, it is not clear that the land has even been purchased, nor have exploration or mining licenses been obtained.

I re-iterate my sell recommendation.

Edit: FWIW a SP of 40c post consolidation, values this company at well over 200m.... i suggest a peer comparison of other IO explorers with similar or even larger resources targets.

michael_selway · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

tech/a said:
YT

I cant believe you dont have any of these YT.

Its because of you that I do!
Keep up the good work.

YT is also good in the sense he knows when to sell

Having said this, imo he likes stocks with alot of risk e.g. low market cap stcoks. (but with potential high rewards of course). Something that differs a little to me

YT do you ever look at more safe stocks (that can still do well in current market)? I like to see your comments as most of the ones you mention are too "risky" for my apetite

thx

MS

Largesse · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Further i add,

i have held NSL in the past, from 2.5 to 5.0c. The SP appreciation was defying logic, so i had to exit.

i have friends in this company still, and i offer the same opinions to them.

sam76 · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

I think people need to sit back and think about this one.

Monday will tell either side whether they're wrong or right.

I'm certainly not selling.

ans25 · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

So what do you guys think?

Good ann, Bad ann?

Im just wondering if it is a good time to maybe join in on Monday.

sam76 · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

ans25 said:
So what do you guys think?

Good ann, Bad ann?

Im just wondering if it is a good time to maybe join in on Monday.

My vote is good and will get better.

But that's just my opinion and Largesse will most likely shoot me down.

pan · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

see that the capital raising is at no less than 20 cents, if you got in around what it closed at last week you would be laughin.

Remember it is still the same company as last weekend, still the same amount of shares for the next few months.

sam76 · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

and I think you'll find that none of the long termers will be offloading many (if at all)

Just MHO and DYOR

LRG · 10 July 2008

Re: NSL - NSL Health

yes, but is the capital raising (no less than 20cents) before OR after the 4:1 consolidation?

If after, we are screwed, cause the SP could be only worth 5 cents now in lieu of the 10.5 cents at the time of the trading halt.

i can't tell from reading the ann. which way around it is - Before OR After consolidation??

please help, someone who can decipher, the order of events.

Also, are you sure the hault will not be lifted until monday?

ELE - Elmore Ltd

pan

Birdster

YOUNG_TRADER

sam76

Largesse

YOUNG_TRADER

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

YOUNG_TRADER

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

YOUNG_TRADER

Birdster

Largesse

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

Largesse

sam76

ans25

sam76

pan

sam76

LRG

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