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- 2 April 2008
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We dropped 8m shares worth of weak holders and picked up some new and enthusiastic holders at 3.7 - 4.1c today as well as builing some good support just under 4c. A few more days like that and I think i can wait a bit longer.
I think the SP movement on release of the announcement will be intersting. I suspect there are going to be a lot of holders looking to exit, and possibly a lot of uninformed non holders jumping in when they see a $10M health company with a heap of iron ore.
The risk is one day they firm up the project as NSL offers huge upside should they firm up a resource, then the stock would most likely gap up hard and I would miss out ony gains because I was being silly trading it, then I'll do a bit of
Hi cmh
Your right, NSL will have to issue 1Billion shares if the project JORC's 200Mt's@60% Fe minimum
So current shares = 300m + new shares once JORC = 1000m Total = 1.3 Billion + say 200m more for some extra cash = say 1.5 Billion
But then for all this to happen the company will have a JORC 200Mt@60%Fe deposit, the EV on this at $10/t = $1.2 Billion
You divide that by the 1.5Billion shares on issue and it equlas a share price of about 80c
Now if they JORC more than 200Mt's they have to give even more shares, but bottom line is who cares, the current SP is 2.5c
So regardless of how much they issue, it will only be issued once a 200Mt @60%Fe project is confirmed and as I've shown the EV value of this is over $1Billion Dollars,
So do the math and you'll see no matter which way you slice it at 2.5c and a mkt cap of $7.5m its cheap given the potential upside it offers
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