ELD - Elders Limited

[Huskar]

The 175 year old company has had a fairly tumultuous history since a high of around $27.00 in 2007. Recent reports look as though the newly appointed CEO is starting to steer the company back in the right direction; closing down on the significant debt and consolidating the business back to it's core roots. Is it time to jump in at around 0.12?

Hope you did my friend..

Now at 20c

 

[IrishDigger]

Still no sign of a dividend.

The following is an interesting read,

Click Here To Read Report

I hold a few thousand ELD; no practical financial $ense to it but more for sentimental reasons because of my rural background.

Interesting to follow and I wonder what the future holds for ELD.

Regarding the word 'future' -- I recall reading that Elders intended to sell Futuris but have seen no reports since.

The above quote is dated September 28, 2011 - still holding and awaiting better times.:aus:

Cheers.

 

[IrishDigger]

Hope you did my friend..

Now at 20c

Now at 21c, Speeding Ticket issued.

 

[IrishDigger]

News update,

'Suitors Are Circling'

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/elders-admits-suitors-are-circling/story-e6frg8zx-1226981703428?nk=aa5fc386281df3dcffad7efb3d642553

I wonder if RHL might reconsider?

 

[robusta]

Thats what they need, an eight point plan.


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140728/pdf/42r28pgrl2r7yn.pdf

Everything will be OK now, has to be twice as good as a four point plan right? Maybe a one point plan not to destroy shareholders equity could have worked.

 

[skc]

Thats what they need, an eight point plan.


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140728/pdf/42r28pgrl2r7yn.pdf

Everything will be OK now, has to be twice as good as a four point plan right? Maybe a one point plan not to destroy shareholders equity could have worked.

Haha... You know they hired really expensive consultants to decide whether 8-points were too many or too few.

But, you'd be surprised how the market will react to a well-articulated plan, and how the company's staff will react to a well-articulated plan. SGM (sims metal) last week came up with a strategic review which traget 3x increase in EBIT without too much details around how it'd get there, and the shares were bought up strongly.

FWIW, ELD is not a bad turnaround play. They are no longer on death watch. They do need to sort out their hybrid notes as a last step to repairing their balance sheet. It's not really a mega growth potential or anything, but simply getting it run like a above-average business should see it re-rated for some time.

 

[Huskar]

ELD really starting to come back into acceptance by institutions. AMP just disclosed a significant shareholding. Share consolidation means SP now looks more palatable with a number before the decimal sign. Agricultural industry coming into popularity. 30% increase since Xmas gives indication of buying pressure. Maybe 6 point plan was all that was missing these years! From talking to a few different groups of farmers it seems there is little doubt that the Elders brand is still strong in agricultural services.

 

[ReXXar]

Anyone still following this stock? I bought around $3.8 few months ago and it haven't moved for 3 and half months, appears to have no momentum at all and price wise $3.8 I'm not entirely comfortable with either, market up 1.2% and its down 1% today for no reason.. I bought it mostly as an initial dividend play, and also partly as a blue chip turnaround play. However dividend is not expected until Dec 2017 and I'm getting impatient with this stock. Anyone holding Elders??

 

[ReXXar]

Haha... You know they hired really expensive consultants to decide whether 8-points were too many or too few.

But, you'd be surprised how the market will react to a well-articulated plan, and how the company's staff will react to a well-articulated plan. SGM (sims metal) last week came up with a strategic review which traget 3x increase in EBIT without too much details around how it'd get there, and the shares were bought up strongly.

FWIW, ELD is not a bad turnaround play. They are no longer on death watch. They do need to sort out their hybrid notes as a last step to repairing their balance sheet. It's not really a mega growth potential or anything, but simply getting it run like a above-average business should see it re-rated for some time.

Great foresight skc..

 

[Boggo]

Something driving it in the right direction

Daily chart

 

[ReXXar]

Something driving it in the right direction

Daily chart
View attachment 71246

You own this stock?? I'm still holding on to ELD, seems to be one of those stocks people lost interest in. Nothing exciting but it should continue to accumulate cash and outperform until 2019 if management keep up what they're doing, although I have no intention to hold it until then.

 

[Boggo]

You own this stock?? I'm still holding on to ELD, seems to be one of those stocks people lost interest in. Nothing exciting but it should continue to accumulate cash and outperform until 2019 if management keep up what they're doing, although I have no intention to hold it until then.

Yes, still holding in the SMSF. Giving it room to move, weekly trailing stop is 4.96 and it held above that at the close on Friday.
I did also hold some in my trading account but they were stopped out on the daily at 5.26 last Monday.

Weekly chart - click to expand

 

[ReXXar]

Yes, still holding in the SMSF. Giving it room to move, weekly trailing stop is 4.96 and it held above that at the close on Friday.
I did also hold some in my trading account but they were stopped out on the daily at 5.26 last Monday.

Weekly chart - click to expand
View attachment 71761

I'm still waiting on the initial dividend announcement, when that happens I expect it will pop when super fund managers add it to the portfolio, as many institutional funds only invest in large stocks that pay a dividend.

How do you use stop-loss? Do you use Bollinger bands or weekly MA using daily low? Conversely, do you buy when it breaches the weekly top? I still have my stop-loss set around $3.40, I really need to move it up, maybe around $4.70?? (last top reached in 15 Jan 2016)

 

[Boggo]

How do you use stop-loss? Do you use Bollinger bands or weekly MA using daily low? Conversely, do you buy when it breaches the weekly top? I still have my stop-loss set around $3.40, I really need to move it up, maybe around $4.70?? (last top reached in 15 Jan 2016)

Apologies for going off the thread topic of ELD to answer.

Stop Loss - two methods, one when I enter the trade, an initial stop and the difference between the initial stop and the entry point determines how much I am willing to risk and in turn how many shares I will buy.
If you look at the chart of AWC below as an example and only look at the most recent "heads up" arrow you will also see a value on the right of 1.842.
That is the low of the third last bar and 1.83 would be a likely initial stop to base my initial entry calculations on.
Once I am in the trade and I go into profit then the trailing stop (ATR with variables) takes over once it passes the level of the initial stop. That is the theory of how it works but trading sideways, news, dividends etc can mean I may intervene along the way and exit.

I have also include a chart of CDA below as an example of the advantage of a wide trailing stop in a weekly system once you get past the initial part.

Buy point - the up arrow on the chart is just a heads up. If you look again at the chart of AWC you will see a heads up arrow in late April 2016 and if you now try to apply an initial stop as I described above the recent low was too far from the entry, one glance at this in a scan result list and I move on to the next result.

Now if you look at the next heads up arrow in mid October the pattern is more stable and you could apply a sensible initial stop that would also secure an acceptable buy volume at your normal $$ risk. (this was how I entered AWC)
The remaining arrows can then be viewed at top up points if you wanted to increase your holding.

Once you are in the trade profitably you then need to be prepared to give it room to move and if you look at the AWC thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/awc-alumina-limited.4687/page-3#post-950281) you will see that another method is used to see where the stock behaviour may be without the stop interfering with that pattern, sometimes this takes a bit of nerve when you see your profit reducing from a high - system trading !
This is rough description of the weekly system, daily is similiar in some ways but more discretionary.

Hope that answers your question, now back to ELD from here on.

(click to expand)

 

[ReXXar]

Apologies for going off the thread topic of ELD to answer.

Stop Loss - two methods, one when I enter the trade, an initial stop and the difference between the initial stop and the entry point determines how much I am willing to risk and in turn how many shares I will buy.
If you look at the chart of AWC below as an example and only look at the most recent "heads up" arrow you will also see a value on the right of 1.842.
That is the low of the third last bar and 1.83 would be a likely initial stop to base my initial entry calculations on.
Once I am in the trade and I go into profit then the trailing stop (ATR with variables) takes over once it passes the level of the initial stop. That is the theory of how it works but trading sideways, news, dividends etc can mean I may intervene along the way and exit.

I have also include a chart of CDA below as an example of the advantage of a wide trailing stop in a weekly system once you get past the initial part.

Buy point - the up arrow on the chart is just a heads up. If you look again at the chart of AWC you will see a heads up arrow in late April 2016 and if you now try to apply an initial stop as I described above the recent low was too far from the entry, one glance at this in a scan result list and I move on to the next result.

Now if you look at the next heads up arrow in mid October the pattern is more stable and you could apply a sensible initial stop that would also secure an acceptable buy volume at your normal $$ risk. (this was how I entered AWC)
The remaining arrows can then be viewed at top up points if you wanted to increase your holding.

Once you are in the trade profitably you then need to be prepared to give it room to move and if you look at the AWC thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/awc-alumina-limited.4687/page-3#post-950281) you will see that another method is used to see where the stock behaviour may be without the stop interfering with that pattern, sometimes this takes a bit of nerve when you see your profit reducing from a high - system trading !
This is rough description of the weekly system, daily is similiar in some ways but more discretionary.

Hope that answers your question, now back to ELD from here on.

(click to expand)
View attachment 71781 View attachment 71782

Hmm interesting, your system kinda reminds me of Taylor's 3 day cycle. How do you minimise the transaction cost, do you trade using CFDs?? How's the strategy working out for you? I used to play around with similar trading systems, when backtested it works but when transaction cost is taken into account and the fact that I have to pay extra for guaranteed stop loss I wasn't able to turn a profit consistently, and it was too stressful anyhow, was trying to do this during my day-job and ended badly. Nowadays I usually just look at the 50 and 200 day MA to support my fundamental analysis.

 

[Boggo]

No cfd's, just stocks, or instalment warrants on some of the bigger stocks.
At the moment (and for the last FY) the system is being slowed with some of the stocks that are range bound.
Brokerage is a factor catered for in the system design, slippage is the unknown.

 

[greggles]

Elders Limited spiked 19.70% to $8.87 today following the release of its financial results for the 12 months to 30 September 2018.

Here are the highlights:

The financial results weren't outstanding but they definitely met expectations. I suspect today's share price spike was more market relief than anything. Relief that the results weren't worse than they were and a bit of a testament to Elders resilience in the face of challenging circumstances.

 

[barney]

Elders Limited spiked 19.70% to $8.87 today following the release of its financial results for the 12 months to 30 September 2018.

Pretty amazing to think that a few years back Elders were on the seat of their pants with everyone saying it was the end ….. and now they are back at almost $9 a share ….. I wonder whether AMP will do something similar after they hit rock bottom

 

[peter2]

The ongoing drought and then flooding in QLD has really hit farmers hard. Elders are having a tough time too. Their recent downgrade (Mar 19) saw their price slump lower.

Since then, price has bounced and my chart shows a reversal setup. I must say that price remains in a strong down trend but there's a small chance that this year long corrective pattern may be ending.
Please do not say there's a H&S reversal pattern on this chart. I hate that pattern.
[The other agricultural stock AAC is also breaking higher.]

 

[Dona Ferentes]

“As an industry we have already noticed significant business demand changes from coronavirus.
Demand is high, farmer confidence is high and we have had significant rain”

- Mark Allison, CEO, Elders Ltd